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Avai crestAvai
v
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

Serie B | Sun 12 Jul, 20:00

Avai v Nautico Recife Stats

Data last updated: Mon 03 Aug 2026, 19:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Avai face Nautico Recife in Serie B on Sun 12 Jul, 20:00. Avai come in with 3 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Nautico Recife have 2 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Avai to Win

  • At 2.9, Avai to Win implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 46%.
  • Avai have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 2 for Nautico Recife.
  • Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Avai to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Avai sit 18 in the table, while Nautico Recife sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 46% for Avai to Win sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Avai have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 2 for Nautico Recife.

Model chance vs price46% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Positive
Avai have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Avai Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Avai have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 2 for Nautico Recife. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Avai to Win evidence

Avai have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 2 for Nautico Recife.

Nautico Recife have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Avai Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Avai sit 18 in the table, while Nautico Recife sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Avai to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Avai2.5
    Avg corners for
    Nautico Recife8.67
    Avai11.5
    Avg total corners
    Nautico Recife11.67
    Avai1.75
    Avg yellow cards
    Nautico Recife2
    Avai6.5
    Avg shots
    Nautico Recife26
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Avai1
    Avg goals scored
    Nautico Recife1
    Avai1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Nautico Recife1.6
    Avai60%
    BTTS rate
    Nautico Recife40%
    Avai60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nautico Recife40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAvai to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.7 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Avai Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Avai to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Avai

    LLWLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    06 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP1-3
    28 Jun 2026A Athletic Club0-1
    21 Jun 2026H Cuiaba1-0
    16 Jun 2026A Londrina2-3
    11 Jun 2026A Ceara1-2

    Nautico Recife

    DLLDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    06 Jul 2026H Juventude0-0
    28 Jun 2026H Goias0-1
    20 Jun 2026A Vila Nova3-4
    14 Jun 2026A Novorizontino2-2
    09 Jun 2026H Fortaleza EC0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAvai to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.7 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Avai Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Avai wins
    1Draws
    2Nautico Recife wins
    21 Nov 2021Nautico Recife v Avai1-2
    14 Aug 2021Avai v Nautico Recife2-0
    06 Nov 2020Nautico Recife v Avai2-2
    09 Aug 2020Avai v Nautico Recife3-1
    12 Nov 2016Avai v Nautico Recife3-0
    23 Jul 2016Nautico Recife v Avai3-1
    Market aligned with main pickAvai to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.7 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Avai to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Avai20
    Played
    Nautico Recife20
    Avai1.1
    Avg goals for
    Nautico Recife1.2
    Avai1.4
    Avg goals against
    Nautico Recife1.2
    Avai6
    Clean sheets
    Nautico Recife6
    Market aligned with main pickAvai to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.7 pts
    2.9
    Check odds @ 2.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Avai Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Avai to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    13Nautico Recife25207490
    18Avai20205510-6
    Avai sit in position 18, while Nautico Recife sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Avai to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Avai Over 2.5
    40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
    2.88H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Avai sit at 60% and Nautico Recife sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.88 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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