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Audace Cerignola crestAudace Cerignola
v
Team Altamura crestTeam Altamura

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 04 Oct, 19:30

Audace Cerignola v Team Altamura Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Audace Cerignola hosts Team Altamura in a Serie C - Girone C clash where Cerignola's stronger recent form and higher league standing set the stage for a competitive encounter. Cerignola has accumulated 10 points and sits 7th, while Altamura has 7 points and ranks 16th. Cerignola's attack has been more effective, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared to Altamura's 0.4, while defensively Cerignola concedes fewer goals. This match offers Cerignola a chance to consolidate their position with home advantage and momentum on their side.

BT4Y best bet

Audace Cerignola to Win

  • Audace Cerignola ranks 7th with 10 points; Team Altamura 16th with 7 points.
  • Cerignola averages 1.4 goals per game, Altamura only 0.4.
  • Cerignola concedes 0.6 goals per game, Altamura concedes 1.8.
  • Both teams have a low BTTS rate of 20%, suggesting tight defensive games.
  • Over 2.5 goals occur in 40% of matches for both teams, indicating moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.4% chance for Audace Cerignola to win, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger attack, and more solid defense compared to Team Altamura. The price offers positive value with an 18.8% edge, supporting a standard stake. Cerignola's home advantage and higher league ranking reinforce their likelihood to secure victory. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability73.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Market69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals For/Against1.4/0.6 vs 0.4/1.8
Strong positive
League Position7th vs 16th
Positive
BTTS RateLow at 20% for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Audace Cerignola's superior offensive output and defensive solidity make them the clear favorites to win this fixture. Their consistent form and higher league standing provide a tactical and statistical edge over Team Altamura, who have struggled to score and concede frequently. Expect Cerignola to capitalize on home advantage and secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cerignola's balanced attack and defense, combined with Altamura's low scoring threat, create a strong case for a home win in this Serie C matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Audace Cerignola to Win evidence

Audace Cerignola ranks 7th with 10 points; Team Altamura 16th with 7 points.

Cerignola averages 1.4 goals per game, Altamura only 0.4.

Cerignola concedes 0.6 goals per game, Altamura concedes 1.8.

Both teams have a low BTTS rate of 20%, suggesting tight defensive games.

What To Watch In The Data

Audace Cerignola to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.88, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, suggesting moderate goal-scoring potential but a tendency towards controlled tempo and defensive discipline in their meetings.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Audace Cerignola1.4
Avg goals scored
Team Altamura0.4
Audace Cerignola0.6
Avg goals conceded
Team Altamura1.8
Audace Cerignola20%
BTTS rate
Team Altamura20%
Audace Cerignola40%
Over 2.5 goals
Team Altamura40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +5.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams have a low both-teams-to-score rate of 20%, indicating tight defensive setups and limited scoring from Altamura. Cerignola's average of 1.4 goals per game combined with Altamura's defensive vulnerabilities suggests goals may be controlled and limited, supporting a low BTTS likelihood in this match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Audace Cerignola

LDLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
26 Sep 2026A AZ Picerno1-2
19 Sep 2026H Casertana0-0
15 Sep 2026A Casarano0-1
11 Sep 2026H Giugliano4-0
06 Sep 2026A Foggia2-0

Team Altamura

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
27 Sep 2026A Scafatese0-2
19 Sep 2026H AZ Picerno2-1
15 Sep 2026A Casertana0-1
11 Sep 2026H Bari0-3
06 Sep 2026H Savoia0-2
Market aligned with main pickAudace Cerignola to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Cerignola's recent form shows 7 points with a positive goal difference, contrasting with Altamura's 3 points and defensive frailties. This form disparity highlights Cerignola's momentum and ability to convert chances, reinforcing their status as favorites to secure victory in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAudace Cerignola to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 69.6% for Audace Cerignola to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Audace Cerignola have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Team Altamura.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Audace Cerignola Over 2.5
40%Team Altamura Over 2.5
1.88H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.88, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, suggesting moderate goal-scoring potential but a tendency towards controlled tempo and defensive discipline in their meetings.

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