Football Stats Hub

Aston Villa crestAston Villa
v
Liverpool crestLiverpool

Premier League | Fri 15 May, 20:00

Aston Villa v Liverpool Stats

Data last updated: Thu 04 Jun 2026, 18:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa face Liverpool in Premier League on Fri 15 May, 20:00. 96 goals in 54 matches shows they remain a potent threat despite inconsistent away league results. Villa's home dominance (5 wins in 6) contrasts sharply with Liverpool's away struggles (5 losses in 6), influencing the pricing.

BT4Y lean · price warning

1: Aston Villa Double Chance 🎯 Aston Villa arrive at this fixture as one of the most reliable home sides in the Premier League

  • At 4/6, Aston Villa Win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Aston Villa are formidable at home, winning five of their last six matches at Villa Park.
  • Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Aston Villa.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aston Villa sit 4 in the table, while Liverpool sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

1: Aston Villa Double Chance 🎯 Aston Villa arrive at this fixture as one of the most reliable home sides in the Premier League is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 60% while the model sits nearer 27% (-33 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Liverpool Draw No Bet shows a +24.3 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Aston Villa Win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Aston Villa. Aston Villa are formidable at home, winning five of their last six matches at Villa Park.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Negative
Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Aston Villa are formidable at home, winning five of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aston Villa Win is the preferred angle because aston Villa are formidable at home, winning five of their last six matches at Villa Park. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Aston Villa. Nobody involved will publicly admit they expect chaos again — but privately, they probably do.

Main risk

Nobody involved will publicly admit they expect chaos again — but privately, they probably do.

Key Data Signals

Aston Villa Win evidence

Aston Villa are formidable at home, winning five of their last six matches at Villa Park.

Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Aston Villa.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aston Villa sit 4 in the table, while Liverpool sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aston Villa Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aston Villa1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Liverpool2
    Aston Villa1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Liverpool1.2
    Aston Villa80%
    BTTS rate
    Liverpool80%
    Aston Villa60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Liverpool60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -8.7 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Aston Villa to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Premier League analysisfull betting preview for Aston Villa v Liverpoolcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aston Villa5
    Avg corners for
    Liverpool4.8
    Aston Villa9.2
    Avg total corners
    Liverpool9.4
    Aston Villa1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Liverpool1
    Aston Villa12
    Avg shots
    Liverpool12.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 46% · edge +2.4 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aston Villa

    DLLWD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    10 May 2026A Burnley2-2
    03 May 2026H Tottenham1-2
    25 Apr 2026A Fulham0-1
    19 Apr 2026H Sunderland4-3
    12 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-1

    Liverpool

    DLWWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    09 May 2026H Chelsea1-1
    03 May 2026A Manchester United2-3
    25 Apr 2026H Crystal Palace3-1
    19 Apr 2026A Everton2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Fulham2-0
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -8.7 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Aston Villa wins
    3Draws
    7Liverpool wins
    01 Nov 2025Liverpool v Aston Villa2-0
    19 Feb 2025Aston Villa v Liverpool2-2
    09 Nov 2024Liverpool v Aston Villa2-0
    13 May 2024Aston Villa v Liverpool3-3
    03 Sep 2023Liverpool v Aston Villa3-0
    20 May 2023Liverpool v Aston Villa1-1
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -8.7 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aston Villa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Aston Villa38
    Played
    Liverpool38
    Aston Villa1.5
    Avg goals for
    Liverpool1.7
    Aston Villa1.3
    Avg goals against
    Liverpool1.4
    Aston Villa9
    Clean sheets
    Liverpool10
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 36% · edge -8.7 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Aston Villa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Aston Villa6538198117
    5Liverpool60381791210
    Aston Villa sit in position 4, while Liverpool sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Aston Villa Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    60%Liverpool Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa sit at 60% and Liverpool sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Aston Villa v Liverpool prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Premier League hubmore Premier League analysisfull betting preview for Aston Villa v Liverpoolcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre