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Aston Villa crestAston Villa
v
Arsenal crestArsenal

Premier League | Mon 31 Aug, 20:00

Aston Villa v Arsenal Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 05:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aston Villa face Arsenal in Premier League on Mon 31 Aug, 20:00. Villa have won four of their last seven Premier League home games against Arsenal, a record that gives their difficult start some important context.

BT4Y match pick

Arsenal to win

  • At 1/2, Arsenal to win implies roughly 67%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Arsenal’s rapid scoring start and Villa’s defensive struggles support a 0-3 correct score.
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Aston Villa.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aston Villa sit 16 in the table, while Arsenal sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Arsenal to win sits against roughly 67% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Aston Villa. Arsenal’s rapid scoring start and Villa’s defensive struggles support a 0-3 correct score.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 67% implied
Negative
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal’s rapid scoring start and Villa’s defensive struggles support.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because arsenal’s rapid scoring start and Villa’s defensive struggles support a 0-3 correct score. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Aston Villa. Villa’s immediate concern is whether their new attacking configuration can threaten an Arsenal side yet to concede this season.

Main risk

Villa’s immediate concern is whether their new attacking configuration can threaten an Arsenal side yet to concede this season.

Key Data Signals

Arsenal to win evidence

Arsenal’s rapid scoring start and Villa’s defensive struggles support a 0-3 correct score.

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Aston Villa.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aston Villa sit 16 in the table, while Arsenal sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Arsenal to win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aston Villa2
    Avg corners for
    Arsenal8
    Aston Villa7
    Avg total corners
    Arsenal10
    Aston Villa3
    Avg yellow cards
    Arsenal1
    Aston Villa6
    Avg shots
    Arsenal20
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aston Villa0
    Avg goals scored
    Arsenal3
    Aston Villa4
    Avg goals conceded
    Arsenal0
    Aston Villa0%
    BTTS rate
    Arsenal0%
    Aston Villa100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arsenal100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 80% · edge +8 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 67% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Arsenal to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aston Villa

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    23 Aug 2026A Brighton0-4

    Arsenal

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    21 Aug 2026H Coventry3-0
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 67% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 83%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Aston Villa wins
    1Draws
    6Arsenal wins
    30 Dec 2025Arsenal v Aston Villa4-1
    06 Dec 2025Aston Villa v Arsenal2-1
    18 Jan 2025Arsenal v Aston Villa2-2
    24 Aug 2024Aston Villa v Arsenal0-2
    14 Apr 2024Arsenal v Aston Villa0-2
    09 Dec 2023Aston Villa v Arsenal1-0
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 67% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Arsenal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Aston Villa5
    Played
    Arsenal5
    Aston Villa0.8
    Avg goals for
    Arsenal1.6
    Aston Villa1.8
    Avg goals against
    Arsenal0.8
    Aston Villa1
    Clean sheets
    Arsenal3
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 67% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Arsenal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Arsenal1254014
    16Aston Villa45113-5
    Aston Villa sit in position 16, while Arsenal sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Arsenal to win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    100%Arsenal Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aston Villa sit at 100% and Arsenal sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Aston Villa v Arsenal prediction

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    Betting context

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