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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Mon 04 May, 19:45

AS Roma v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026, 19:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma face Fiorentina in Serie A on Mon 04 May, 19:45. AS Roma come in with 10 recent points and 1.8 goals per match, while Fiorentina have 9 points and 0.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 1.95, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Fiorentina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while AS Roma sit at 1.6.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Fiorentina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while AS Roma sit at 1.6.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Strong positive
Fiorentina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while AS.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +16.6 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Fiorentina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while AS Roma sit at 1.6. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Fiorentina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while AS Roma sit at 1.6.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma1.8
Avg goals scored
Fiorentina0.8
AS Roma1.2
Avg goals conceded
Fiorentina0.4
AS Roma40%
BTTS rate
Fiorentina40%
AS Roma40%
Over 2.5 goals
Fiorentina0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 27% · edge +30 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.6 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AS Roma5.8
Avg corners for
Fiorentina4.25
AS Roma10.8
Avg total corners
Fiorentina9.25
AS Roma1.6
Avg yellow cards
Fiorentina3
AS Roma11.4
Avg shots
Fiorentina12.75
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +16.6 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

WDWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
25 Apr 2026A Bologna2-0
18 Apr 2026H Atalanta1-1
10 Apr 2026H Pisa3-0
05 Apr 2026A Inter2-5
22 Mar 2026H Lecce1-0

Fiorentina

DDWWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
26 Apr 2026H Sassuolo0-0
20 Apr 2026A Lecce1-1
13 Apr 2026H Lazio1-0
04 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona1-0
22 Mar 2026H Inter1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 41% · edge +20.4 pts
2.47
Check odds @ 2.47
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Fiorentina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5AS Roma wins
2Draws
3Fiorentina wins
05 Oct 2025Fiorentina v AS Roma1-2
04 May 2025AS Roma v Fiorentina1-0
27 Oct 2024Fiorentina v AS Roma5-1
10 Mar 2024Fiorentina v AS Roma2-2
10 Dec 2023AS Roma v Fiorentina1-1
27 May 2023Fiorentina v AS Roma2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 27% · edge +30 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

AS Roma38
Played
Fiorentina38
AS Roma1.6
Avg goals for
Fiorentina1.1
AS Roma0.8
Avg goals against
Fiorentina1.3
AS Roma18
Clean sheets
Fiorentina10
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.9 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Fiorentina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Season data supports AS Roma Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3AS Roma73382341128
15Fiorentina423891514-9
AS Roma sit in position 3, while Fiorentina sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Over 3.5 Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%AS Roma Over 2.5
0%Fiorentina Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AS Roma sit at 40% and Fiorentina sit at 0% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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