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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Atalanta crestAtalanta

Serie A | Sat 05 Sep, 19:45

AS Roma v Atalanta Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 17:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma and Atalanta meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown attacking intent early in the season. AS Roma tops the table with six points and a perfect record of scoring over 2.5 goals in all matches, while Atalanta also has six points but with a more cautious goal output. The tactical setup suggests an open game with Roma's offensive firepower facing Atalanta's resilient but sometimes vulnerable defense. Both teams have kept clean sheets recently, adding intrigue to how the attacking battle will unfold in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • AS Roma has scored 4 goals and conceded none in recent matches, showing strong attacking and defensive form.
  • Atalanta averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, indicating a balanced but less prolific attack.
  • AS Roma’s over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, Atalanta’s is 50%, supporting a goal-rich game.
  • The average shots per game are 16 for AS Roma and 10 for Atalanta, with Roma’s higher shot accuracy boosting scoring chances.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4 over the last 10 meetings, reflecting a tendency for multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 68.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by AS Roma’s perfect over 2.5 record and strong attacking metrics, including high shot volume and accuracy. Atalanta’s balanced defense and moderate scoring add to the likelihood of multiple goals. The of nearly 16% against the implied indicates a favorable price for this market. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats, reinforcing in this goal-focused selection.

Model Probability68.3% chance of over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
AS Roma Over 2.5 Rate100% in recent matches
Strong positive
Atalanta Over 2.5 Rate50% in recent matches
Positive
Shot VolumeRoma 16 avg, Atalanta 10 avg
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals2.4 average goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as AS Roma’s potent offense faces Atalanta’s solid but occasionally porous defense. Roma’s high shot volume and clinical finishing combined with Atalanta’s willingness to push forward suggest multiple goal-scoring opportunities, making over 2.5 goals a compelling choice for this Serie A encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“AS Roma’s relentless attacking style, led by prolific shooters, combined with Atalanta’s balanced but sometimes vulnerable defense, sets the stage for a high-scoring match that should surpass 2.5 goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

AS Roma has scored 4 goals and conceded none in recent matches, showing strong attacking and defensive form.

Atalanta averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, indicating a balanced but less prolific attack.

AS Roma’s over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, Atalanta’s is 50%, supporting a goal-rich game.

The average shots per game are 16 for AS Roma and 10 for Atalanta, with Roma’s higher shot accuracy boosting scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating a trend toward multiple goals.
  • Recent matches show Roma consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, while Atalanta’s mixed over 2.5 record suggests variability.
  • The trend panel supports a game with a lively tempo and goal-scoring chances from both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AS Roma1.5
Avg corners for
Atalanta2.5
AS Roma4
Avg total corners
Atalanta5.5
AS Roma1.5
Avg yellow cards
Atalanta0.5
AS Roma16
Avg shots
Atalanta10
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
AS Roma’s higher average shots (16) and shots on target (8) reflect sustained attacking pressure, while Atalanta’s 2.5 corners per game indicate some territorial battles. Low card averages suggest a relatively disciplined match, with fouls unlikely to disrupt attacking flow significantly.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma4
Avg goals scored
Atalanta1.5
AS Roma0
Avg goals conceded
Atalanta0.5
AS Roma0%
BTTS rate
Atalanta50%
AS Roma100%
Over 2.5 goals
Atalanta50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown contrasting BTTS trends: AS Roma has not conceded recently, while Atalanta concedes less but scores moderately. The goal-scoring data and 2.4 average goals in head-to-head matches point toward a game with multiple goals but uncertain BTTS outcome, favoring over 2.5 goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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AS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
AS Roma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atalanta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
The over 2.5 goals market is priced attractively at 1.91 with a of 68.3%, indicating clear value. The 15.9% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, making this a positive betting angle without price warnings.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
31 Aug 2026A Lecce4-0
24 Aug 2026H Fiorentina4-0

Atalanta

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
31 Aug 2026H Bologna1-0
23 Aug 2026H Sassuolo2-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 85% · edge +1.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
AS Roma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Atalanta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
AS Roma’s recent form is dominant with 6 points and 4 goals scored without conceding, maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate. Atalanta also has 6 points but with fewer goals scored and a 50% over 2.5 rate. This contrast suggests Roma’s form heavily influences the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2AS Roma wins
2Draws
6Atalanta wins
18 Apr 2026AS Roma v Atalanta1-1
03 Jan 2026Atalanta v AS Roma1-0
12 May 2025Atalanta v AS Roma2-1
02 Dec 2024AS Roma v Atalanta0-2
12 May 2024Atalanta v AS Roma2-1
07 Jan 2024AS Roma v Atalanta1-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Atalanta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, supporting a moderately high-scoring fixture. While not overwhelmingly decisive, the historical data aligns with the current attacking strengths of AS Roma and the balanced approach of Atalanta, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals outlook.
Season team stats

Serie A

AS Roma3
Played
Atalanta3
AS Roma3.3
Avg goals for
Atalanta1.3
AS Roma0.3
Avg goals against
Atalanta1
AS Roma2
Clean sheets
Atalanta1
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.6 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Atalanta Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Atalanta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
AS Roma leads the league with strong attacking numbers, averaging 4 goals scored and 0 conceded per game, supporting over 2.5 goals. Atalanta’s balanced stats with 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game indicate a competitive but less prolific offense, complementing the expectation of multiple goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1AS Roma933009
7Atalanta632011
AS Roma sits top of Serie A with 6 points, reflecting strong early-season form and offensive efficiency. Atalanta ranks fifth with the same points but a more modest goal record. The standings highlight Roma’s attacking momentum as a key factor for a goal-laden match rather than defensive caution due to table pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%AS Roma Over 2.5
50%Atalanta Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, indicating a trend toward multiple goals. Recent matches show Roma consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, while Atalanta’s mixed over 2.5 record suggests variability. The trend panel supports a game with a lively tempo and goal-scoring chances from both sides.

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