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Arzignano Valchiampo crestArzignano Valchiampo
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Pergolettese crestPergolettese

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 03 Oct, 16:30

Arzignano Valchiampo v Pergolettese Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arzignano Valchiampo and Pergolettese meet in Serie C - Girone A with contrasting recent scoring trends shaping expectations. Arzignano Valchiampo has been involved in high-scoring matches, yet Pergolettese's games have been notably low-scoring, with a strong defensive record conceding no goals recently. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from Pergolettese, aiming to contain Arzignano's attack. Both teams have solid points tallies, but Pergolettese's defensive discipline and Arzignano's inconsistent finishing create uncertainty around goal volume in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Arzignano Valchiampo has a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently, while Pergolettese has 0%.
  • Pergolettese has kept clean sheets in recent matches, conceding 0 goals on average.
  • The head-to-head average goals per game is 1.5 across eight meetings, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Arzignano Valchiampo scores 1.8 goals per game but concedes 1.4, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Pergolettese’s recent form shows only 0.2 goals scored per game, reflecting a low-scoring style.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 64.2% chance, reflecting Pergolettese's strong defensive record and low scoring output combined with the moderate head-to-head goal average of 1.5. Despite Arzignano Valchiampo's tendency for higher scoring games, Pergolettese's disciplined defense and recent clean sheets suggest a restrained match tempo. The model's is supported by Pergolettese's zero goals conceded recently and the historical goal trend between these teams, making Under 2.5 Goals a plausible outcome.

Pergolettese Defensive Solidity0 goals conceded recently
Strong positive
Arzignano Valchiampo Scoring Rate1.8 goals per game
Neutral
Head-to-Head Goals Average1.5 goals per game
Positive
Pergolettese Scoring Rate0.2 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a tactically sound pick given Pergolettese’s defensive discipline and the historically moderate scoring in this fixture. Arzignano Valchiampo’s attacking threat is tempered by Pergolettese’s recent clean sheets, suggesting a match likely to stay tight and low-scoring.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive discipline and goal trends

“Pergolettese’s recent defensive form and the modest goal averages in their meetings with Arzignano Valchiampo point to a cautious game with limited scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Pergolettese has kept clean sheets in recent matches, conceding 0 goals on average.

The head-to-head average goals per game is 1.5 across eight meetings, indicating moderate scoring.

Arzignano Valchiampo scores 1.8 goals per game but concedes 1.4, showing defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 1.5, indicating a trend towards fewer goals.
  • This sample suggests a moderate tempo and limited attacking breakthroughs, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arzignano Valchiampo1.8
Avg goals scored
Pergolettese0.2
Arzignano Valchiampo1.4
Avg goals conceded
Pergolettese0
Arzignano Valchiampo80%
BTTS rate
Pergolettese0%
Arzignano Valchiampo100%
Over 2.5 goals
Pergolettese0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Goal trends show a clear contrast: Arzignano Valchiampo’s matches often exceed 2.5 goals with frequent BTTS, while Pergolettese’s games are low-scoring with no BTTS recently. The head-to-head average of 1.5 goals supports a restrained scoring environment, favoring Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS No outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 56% · edge +0.8 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Pergolettese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Pergolettese to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 64.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+2.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Arzignano Valchiampo and 0% for Pergolettese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arzignano Valchiampo

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
27 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi3-0
20 Sep 2026H Renate2-1
17 Sep 2026A Albinoleffe2-1
13 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-2
06 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-3

Pergolettese

DDDWD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 2L
26 Sep 2026H Trento0-0
20 Sep 2026A Lecco0-0
17 Sep 2026H Folgore Caratese0-0
13 Sep 2026A Novara1-0
06 Sep 2026A Juventus U230-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 86% · edge -3.2 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Pergolettese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Pergolettese to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form highlights Pergolettese’s defensive resilience with zero goals conceded and low scoring output, contrasting with Arzignano Valchiampo’s higher scoring but more porous defense. This form disparity suggests a match leaning towards fewer goals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5
0%Pergolettese Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 1.5, indicating a trend towards fewer goals. This sample suggests a moderate tempo and limited attacking breakthroughs, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

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