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Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League | Tue 05 May, 20:00

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 06:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Atletico Madrid in UEFA Champions League on Tue 05 May, 20:00. Arsenal have been dominant at the Emirates, winning five of six Champions League home games and keeping three consecutive clean sheets in all competitions.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Arsenal Win

  • At 4/7, Arsenal Win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London.
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Madrid.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Arsenal Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 48% (-15.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +18.7 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 48% for Arsenal Win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Madrid. While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Arsenal Win is the preferred angle because while Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in London. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Madrid. It is a straightforward market but carries the risk of late goals or game-state shifts that can alter the result in the final minutes.

Main risk

It is a straightforward market but carries the risk of late goals or game-state shifts that can alter the result in the final minutes.

Key Data Signals

Arsenal Win evidence

While Arsenal are defensive powerhouses at home, Atletico's poor away defensive record suggests a potential for goals in.

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atletico Madrid.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Arsenal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Arsenal Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Arsenal1
    Avg goals scored
    Atletico Madrid2.2
    Arsenal0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Atletico Madrid1.6
    Arsenal40%
    BTTS rate
    Atletico Madrid80%
    Arsenal0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atletico Madrid60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 51% · edge +18.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.1 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Arsenal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Arsenal5.2
    Avg corners for
    Atletico Madrid4
    Arsenal9.6
    Avg total corners
    Atletico Madrid8.2
    Arsenal0.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Atletico Madrid1.4
    Arsenal12.2
    Avg shots
    Atletico Madrid13.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Arsenal

    DDWWD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    29 Apr 2026A Atletico Madrid1-1
    15 Apr 2026H Sporting CP0-0
    07 Apr 2026A Sporting CP1-0
    17 Mar 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-0
    11 Mar 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-1

    Atletico Madrid

    DLWLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    29 Apr 2026H Arsenal1-1
    14 Apr 2026H Barcelona1-2
    08 Apr 2026A Barcelona2-0
    18 Mar 2026A Tottenham2-3
    10 Mar 2026H Tottenham5-2
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.1 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Arsenal wins
    3Draws
    1Atletico Madrid wins
    29 Apr 2026Atletico Madrid v Arsenal1-1
    21 Oct 2025Arsenal v Atletico Madrid4-0
    26 Jul 2018Atletico Madrid v Arsenal1-1
    03 May 2018Atletico Madrid v Arsenal1-0
    26 Apr 2018Arsenal v Atletico Madrid1-1
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.1 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Arsenal to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Arsenal15
    Played
    Atletico Madrid16
    Arsenal2
    Avg goals for
    Atletico Madrid2.2
    Arsenal0.5
    Avg goals against
    Atletico Madrid1.8
    Arsenal9
    Clean sheets
    Atletico Madrid1
    Market aligned with main pickArsenal to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.1 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Arsenal Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Arsenal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal24880019
    14Atletico Madrid1384132
    UEFA Champions League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Arsenal Over 2.5
    60%Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 0% and Atletico Madrid sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Arsenal v Atletico Madrid prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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