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Argentina crestArgentina
v
Austria crestAustria

World Cup | Mon 22 Jun, 18:00

Argentina v Austria Stats

Data last updated: Mon 03 Aug 2026, 17:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Argentina face Austria in World Cup on Mon 22 Jun, 18:00. Group J’s Heavy Hitters Meet In Arlington. Argentina come into this match on an outstanding eight-match winning streak, having scored 24 goals in that period. Argentina have scored at an average rate of 2.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 64%, above the 48% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 4/7, Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Austria are strong but have conceded in 12 of their last 20.
  • Argentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time angle more than.
Price warning

Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 48% (-15.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 48% for Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Argentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time angle more than. Austria are strong but have conceded in 12 of their last 20.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Argentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Austria are strong but have conceded in 12 of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Argentina Win is the preferred angle because austria are strong but have conceded in 12 of their last 20. Argentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Argentina Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Argentina have been ruthless and controlled; Austria have been productive and bold, but a little more open.

Main risk

Argentina have been ruthless and controlled; Austria have been productive and bold, but a little more open.

Key Data Signals

Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time evidence

Austria are strong but have conceded in 12 of their last 20.

Argentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Argentina Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Of either a home victory, a draw, or an away victory within 90 minutes plus injury time notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Argentina2
    Avg corners for
    Austria4
    Argentina4
    Avg total corners
    Austria7
    Argentina0
    Avg yellow cards
    Austria1
    Argentina10
    Avg shots
    Austria11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Argentina3
    Avg goals scored
    Austria3
    Argentina0
    Avg goals conceded
    Austria1
    Argentina0%
    BTTS rate
    Austria100%
    Argentina100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Austria100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 77% · edge +11.1 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickArgentina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 67% · edge -18.7 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Argentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Argentina to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Argentina

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    17 Jun 2026H Algeria3-0

    Austria

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    17 Jun 2026H Jordan3-1
    Market aligned with main pickArgentina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 67% · edge -18.7 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Argentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Argentina wins
    0Draws
    0Austria wins
    Market aligned with main pickArgentina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 67% · edge -18.7 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Argentina to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Argentina8
    Played
    Austria4
    Argentina2.4
    Avg goals for
    Austria1.5
    Argentina1
    Avg goals against
    Austria2.3
    Argentina2
    Clean sheets
    Austria0
    Market aligned with main pickArgentina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 67% · edge -18.7 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Argentina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Season data supports Argentina to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Argentina933007
    2Austria431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Argentina Over 2.5
    100%Austria Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Argentina sit at 100% and Austria sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.