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Arezzo crestArezzo
v
Cremonese crestCremonese

Serie B | Sat 10 Oct, 18:30

Arezzo v Cremonese Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash between Arezzo and Cremonese promises an open contest given both teams' recent attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. Arezzo has conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game, while Cremonese allows 1.4, suggesting defensive frailties on both sides. Both sides have shown willingness to attack, with Arezzo scoring 1.2 goals per game and Cremonese 1.0. Recent form data highlights Arezzo's 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, and Cremonese's 60%, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter at this mid-table fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Arezzo concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness
  • Arezzo's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time recently
  • Cremonese averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.33 over last 3 meetings
  • Both teams average around 12.5 shots per game, showing offensive activity

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 71% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 47.6%, yielding a 23.4% . Both teams demonstrate attacking intent and defensive lapses, supported by Arezzo's 80% over 2.5 rate and Cremonese's 60%. The head-to-head average of 3.33 goals further reinforces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No data limitations affect , making this a robust statistical and tactical case for Over 2.5 Goals.

Model Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Arezzo Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Cremonese Over 2.5 Rate60%
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.33 goals
Positive
Market Implied Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward, as Arezzo's defensive vulnerabilities and Cremonese's moderate scoring form suggest multiple goal chances. The statistical trends and recent form data strongly support a match with at least three goals scored, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“Arezzo's porous defense combined with Cremonese's attacking efforts creates a fertile ground for goals. The teams' recent matches and head-to-head encounters consistently feature multiple goals, underscoring the appeal of the Over 2.5 Goals market here.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Arezzo concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness

Arezzo's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time recently

Cremonese averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.33 over last 3 meetings

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches and three head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.33, indicating a consistent trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides contribute to this pattern, making Over 2.5 Goals a statistically supported expectation for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arezzo1.2
Avg goals scored
Cremonese1
Arezzo2.6
Avg goals conceded
Cremonese1.4
Arezzo60%
BTTS rate
Cremonese40%
Arezzo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cremonese60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals, with Arezzo's games going over 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Cremonese's 60%. The head-to-head average of 3.33 goals over three meetings further supports the likelihood of goals from both sides, although BTTS rates are moderate, suggesting some matches may see one side dominate scoring.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Arezzo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Cremonese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 61.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Arezzo and 60% for Cremonese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arezzo

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
20 Sep 2026H Sudtirol1-4
11 Sep 2026A Empoli1-0
06 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona0-5
30 Aug 2026H Palermo2-3
22 Aug 2026A Avellino2-1

Cremonese

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella0-0
12 Sep 2026A Cesena2-2
06 Sep 2026H Padova3-1
28 Aug 2026H Modena0-3
22 Aug 2026A Empoli0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +8.9 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Arezzo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Cremonese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Cremonese to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Arezzo has accumulated 6 points with a high rate of over 2.5 goals in 80% of their matches, indicating a pattern of high-scoring games. Cremonese, with 5 points and a 60% over 2.5 rate, also leans towards open matches. These trends suggest both teams are involved in fixtures with multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Arezzo Over 2.5
60%Cremonese Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches and three head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.33, indicating a consistent trend towards high-scoring encounters. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides contribute to this pattern, making Over 2.5 Goals a statistically supported expectation for this fixture.

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