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Annan Athletic crestAnnan Athletic
v
Stirling Albion crestStirling Albion

League Two | Sat 03 Oct, 15:00

Annan Athletic v Stirling Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Annan Athletic hosts Stirling Albion in a League Two clash where recent form and defensive solidity could prove decisive. Annan Athletic have accumulated 9 points and sit 7th in the table, showing a more stable defensive record with just 0.8 goals conceded per game. Stirling Albion, positioned 10th with 5 points, have struggled defensively, conceding 3.2 goals per match on average. Both teams have modest scoring rates, but Annan's home advantage and tighter defense suggest they can control the game and secure victory in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Annan Athletic to Win

  • Annan Athletic have a strong home defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.
  • Stirling Albion concede over 3 goals per match on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Annan Athletic have earned 9 points this season, outperforming Stirling Albion's 5 points.
  • Recent form favors Annan Athletic with 6 points gained compared to Stirling Albion's 2 points.
  • Head-to-head average goals are moderate at 2.8, suggesting a controlled scoring environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Annan Athletic to win with a 70.4% probability, reflecting their superior defensive record and recent form. The 1.62 offer positive value given the implied chance of 61.7%, supported by Annan's home strength and Stirling Albion's defensive struggles. This pick aligns with the tactical scenario where Annan's control and efficiency at home can overcome Stirling's leaky defense. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability70.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance70.4% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+8.7 pts)
Positive
Value Edge70.4% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+8.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormAnnan concedes 0.8 vs Stirling 3.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent Points AccumulatedAnnan 9 vs Stirling 5
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Annan Athletic's superior defensive discipline and recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts sharply with Stirling Albion's defensive frailties, suggesting a tactical edge that should translate into a home win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and home advantage

“Annan Athletic's defensive resilience and home form create a solid foundation for victory, especially against a Stirling Albion side that has struggled to contain opponents this season.”

Key Data Signals

Annan Athletic to Win evidence

Annan Athletic have a strong home defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.

Stirling Albion concede over 3 goals per match on average, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Annan Athletic have earned 9 points this season, outperforming Stirling Albion's 5 points.

Recent form favors Annan Athletic with 6 points gained compared to Stirling Albion's 2 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Annan Athletic to Win notes

  • The average goals in the last 10 head-to-head matches is 2.8, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Annan Athletic's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Stirling Albion's higher rate (60%) suggests that while Stirling games tend to be more open, this match may lean towards a controlled tempo with fewer goals, consistent with Annan's defensive approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Annan Athletic1
Avg goals scored
Stirling Albion1.2
Annan Athletic0.8
Avg goals conceded
Stirling Albion3.2
Annan Athletic20%
BTTS rate
Stirling Albion60%
Annan Athletic20%
Over 2.5 goals
Stirling Albion60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10.3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have low scoring rates and Annan Athletic's strong defense limits goals conceded to 0.8 per game. Stirling Albion's higher concession rate does not necessarily translate to high-scoring matches given their modest attack. The low BTTS rate for Annan (20%) versus Stirling's higher (60%) suggests a controlled game with limited goals, favoring a BTTS No or low-scoring context.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Annan Athletic Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The 70.4% for Annan Athletic to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+8.7 pts). Annan Athletic have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Stirling Albion.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Annan Athletic

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 5L
19 Sep 2026A Forfar Athletic0-1
12 Sep 2026H Elgin City2-0
05 Sep 2026A Kelty Hearts1-2
29 Aug 2026H Dumbarton2-0
22 Aug 2026A Edinburgh City0-1

Stirling Albion

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 5L
19 Sep 2026H Clyde1-1
12 Sep 2026A Edinburgh City3-7
05 Sep 2026H Spartans0-2
29 Aug 2026A Elgin City0-4
22 Aug 2026H Stranraer2-2
Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Annan Athletic Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Annan Athletic's recent form is stronger, having earned 6 points compared to Stirling Albion's 2 in recent matches. This momentum, combined with a tighter defense, suggests Annan can impose their game plan effectively. Stirling's struggles to secure points and their defensive vulnerabilities highlight a form gap that favors the home side.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Annan Athletic Over 2.5
60%Stirling Albion Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The average goals in the last 10 head-to-head matches is 2.8, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Annan Athletic's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Stirling Albion's higher rate (60%) suggests that while Stirling games tend to be more open, this match may lean towards a controlled tempo with fewer goals, consistent with Annan's defensive approach.

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