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America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro
v
Juventude crestJuventude

Serie B | Mon 28 Sep, 23:30

America Mineiro v Juventude Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features America Mineiro, struggling near the relegation zone, hosting Juventude, a top-four side with strong recent form. Both teams have shown competitive intensity, with America Mineiro fighting to climb out of danger and Juventude aiming to consolidate their promotion push. The match is likely to be physically contested, with tactical discipline tested as both sides seek vital points late in the season. The stakes and contrasting table positions set the stage for a high-pressure encounter with potential for numerous fouls and cards.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game combined, with Juventude at 2.8 and America Mineiro at 1.8 yellows per match.
  • Recent form shows both sides have low scoring but high fouling rates, indicating physical matches.
  • Player data highlights several players with card risk, including G. Oliveira (America Mineiro) and Mandaca (Juventude).
  • The model estimates a 60.9% chance for over 4.5 cards, above the implied market chance, indicating positive value.
  • Juventude’s aggressive midfield and America Mineiro’s defensive pressure contribute to a likely card-heavy game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 4.5 Cards with a 60.9% probability, reflecting the physical nature of this Serie B fixture. Both teams have high average yellow card counts, especially Juventude with 2.8 yellows per game. Key players like G. Oliveira and Mandaca carry significant card risk, supporting the likelihood of multiple cautions. The match context of a relegation-threatened side versus a promotion contender suggests intense battles and tactical fouling. No price warning applies, making this a standard stake positive value bet based on solid data and football context.

Model Probability60.9% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+6.3 pts)
Strong positive
Team Yellow Card AveragesAmerica Mineiro 1.8, Juventude 2.8 yellows per game
Strong positive
Key Player Card RiskG. Oliveira and Mandaca have high card risk indexes
Positive
Match Stakes and IntensityRelegation battle vs promotion push increases physicality
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with both teams likely to commit tactical fouls given the high stakes. Juventude’s higher card average and America Mineiro’s defensive urgency suggest the Over 4.5 Cards bet aligns well with the anticipated intensity and disciplinary profile of this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture’s competitive tension and player card histories point to a match where disciplinary actions will be frequent, making Over 4.5 Cards a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game combined, with Juventude at 2.8 and America Mineiro at 1.8 yellows per match.

Recent form shows both sides have low scoring but high fouling rates, indicating physical matches.

Player data highlights several players with card risk, including G. Oliveira (America Mineiro) and Mandaca (Juventude).

The model estimates a 60.9% chance for over 4.5 cards, above the implied market chance, indicating positive value.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring but not a high-scoring trend.
  • The focus on Over 2.5 Goals is less supported here, reinforcing that this match’s tempo and defensive focus will likely generate more fouls and cards than goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

America Mineiro1
Avg goals scored
Juventude1
America Mineiro1.4
Avg goals conceded
Juventude1.2
America Mineiro40%
BTTS rate
Juventude40%
America Mineiro40%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventude40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have low scoring rates and identical 40% over 2.5 goals occurrence, suggesting a tight match with limited goal flow. However, the physical nature and fouling frequency increase the likelihood of cards rather than goals or BTTS outcomes.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAmerica Mineiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
America Mineiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
The 60.9% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+6.3 pts). Juventude have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while America Mineiro sit at 1.8.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

America Mineiro

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
18 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-1
14 Sep 2026H São Bernardo0-2
10 Sep 2026H Nautico Recife2-1
05 Sep 2026A CRB1-3
30 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta2-0

Juventude

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Sport Recife1-2
13 Sep 2026H Athletic Club0-2
09 Sep 2026A Criciuma2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense2-2
01 Sep 2026A Londrina0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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America Mineiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
America Mineiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Juventude Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data shows America Mineiro and Juventude each scoring only once in their last matches but accumulating multiple fouls and cards, consistent with a physical and tense match atmosphere. This supports the expectation of over 4.5 cards as both teams engage in aggressive defensive and midfield battles.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%America Mineiro Over 2.5
40%Juventude Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring but not a high-scoring trend. The focus on Over 2.5 Goals is less supported here, reinforcing that this match’s tempo and defensive focus will likely generate more fouls and cards than goals.

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