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Almeria crestAlmeria
v
Leganes crestLeganes

Segunda División | Sun 11 Oct, 15:15

Almeria v Leganes Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 23:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria enters this Segunda División clash in strong form, sitting third in the table with 18 points, showcasing a solid defensive record and effective attacking output. Leganes, positioned 13th with 11 points, have struggled to find consistency, particularly in attack, averaging just 0.6 goals per game. Almeria's home advantage and recent momentum suggest they will control the tempo, while Leganes' defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring rate pose challenges for their chances. This match presents a tactical battle with Almeria expected to leverage their attacking depth and defensive stability to secure a win.

BT4Y best bet

Almeria to Win

  • Almeria ranks 3rd with 18 points, showing strong league form.
  • Leganes have scored only 0.6 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Almeria concedes just 0.6 goals per game, reflecting defensive solidity.
  • Recent form favors Almeria with 15 points compared to Leganes' 4 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Almeria to win with a 74% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher league standing, and stronger offensive and defensive stats. Almeria's average of 14.4 shots per game and 5.2 shots on target per match contrasts with Leganes' lower shot accuracy and goal output. The of 14.1% indicates the offer good value for backing Almeria. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on comprehensive team performance metrics.

Model Chance74% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+12.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAlmeria 15 points vs Leganes 4
Strong positive
Goal ScoringAlmeria 2.0 vs Leganes 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive RecordAlmeria concedes 0.6 vs Leganes 2.0 goals per game
Strong positive
Value Edge74% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+12.3 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Almeria's consistent form and strong defensive record make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and control possession contrasts with Leganes' struggles in attack, providing a tactical and statistical edge that should translate into a home win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Almeria's blend of attacking depth and defensive discipline positions them well to capitalize on Leganes' offensive weaknesses, making a home win the most probable outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Almeria to Win evidence

Almeria ranks 3rd with 18 points, showing strong league form.

Leganes have scored only 0.6 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.

Almeria concedes just 0.6 goals per game, reflecting defensive solidity.

Recent form favors Almeria with 15 points compared to Leganes' 4 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Almeria to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by Almeria's defensive strength, pointing to a controlled tempo with selective attacking bursts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria2
Avg goals scored
Leganes0.6
Almeria0.6
Avg goals conceded
Leganes2
Almeria40%
BTTS rate
Leganes20%
Almeria40%
Over 2.5 goals
Leganes40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams to score appears unlikely given Almeria's solid defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game and Leganes' low scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game. The controlled goal context points to a low-scoring match with a higher probability of BTTS No.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Burgos2-1
27 Sep 2026A Mallorca1-0
20 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II2-0
12 Sep 2026A Cordoba2-0
06 Sep 2026H Cadiz3-2

Leganes

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
03 Oct 2026A Cadiz0-4
28 Sep 2026H Castellón0-2
20 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-2
13 Sep 2026A Tenerife0-2
04 Sep 2026A Las Palmas0-0
Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Almeria's recent form is impressive, securing 15 points in their last matches, reflecting consistent winning performances and effective goal scoring. Leganes' 4 points in the same period highlight their struggles to maintain momentum, reinforcing Almeria's advantage going into this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlmeria to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 74% for Almeria to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+12.3 pts). Almeria have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Leganes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Almeria Over 2.5
40%Leganes Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Both teams have a 40% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by Almeria's defensive strength, pointing to a controlled tempo with selective attacking bursts.

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