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Almeria crestAlmeria
v
Burgos crestBurgos

Segunda División | Sat 03 Oct, 15:15

Almeria v Burgos Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria and Burgos meet in a tightly contested Segunda División clash, both sitting near the top of the table with just a point separating them. Almeria boasts a strong home record and solid defensive form, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Burgos has shown resilience on the road and a balanced attack. The match promises tactical discipline with both sides capable of controlling possession and creating chances, setting up a competitive encounter where Burgos aims to avoid defeat and maintain momentum in this early-season battle.

BT4Y best bet

Burgos or Draw

  • Burgos or Draw offers strong value with a 64.2% versus 43.5% implied .
  • Both teams have similar goal-scoring rates (1.6 goals per game), but Burgos concedes slightly more, indicating potential for a tight match.
  • Almeria’s low BTTS and Over 2.5 rates contrast with Burgos’ higher rates, suggesting Burgos may push for goals while Almeria defends.
  • Burgos ranks 4th with 14 points, just behind Almeria in 3rd, highlighting the fixture’s importance for league positioning.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Burgos or Draw due to Burgos’ consistent form and defensive solidity combined with Almeria’s cautious attacking approach. Despite Almeria’s higher league position, Burgos’ ability to avoid defeat away and the value in make this a compelling selection. The model is strong at 78%, supported by Burgos’ balanced goal concession and Almeria’s low scoring frequency in recent matches. No data limitations affect this prediction, reinforcing the reliability of this pick.

Model Chance60.6% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+6.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance60.6% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+6.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBurgos consistent with 11 points
Positive
Goal ConcessionBurgos concedes 0.8 goals/game
Positive
Almeria Scoring Rate1.6 goals/game but low BTTS rate
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burgos or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Burgos’ defensive resilience and ability to secure points on the road. Almeria’s cautious attacking style and lower BTTS rate suggest a tight game where Burgos can capitalize on counterattacks or defensive lapses. The data supports Burgos avoiding defeat, making this a prudent selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive solidity

“Burgos’ disciplined defensive structure and ability to grind out results away from home make the double chance a smart choice here, especially against an Almeria side that tends to control possession but lacks consistent goal threat.”

Key Data Signals

Burgos or Draw evidence

Burgos or Draw offers strong value with a 64.2% versus 43.5% implied .

Both teams have similar goal-scoring rates (1.6 goals per game), but Burgos concedes slightly more, indicating potential for a tight match.

Burgos ranks 4th with 14 points, just behind Almeria in 3rd, highlighting the fixture’s importance for league positioning.

What To Watch In The Data

Burgos or Draw notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.17, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters.
  • Burgos’ recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting they can contribute to open play, but Almeria’s defensive discipline tempers the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides but not a goal-fest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria1.6
Avg goals scored
Burgos1.6
Almeria0.6
Avg goals conceded
Burgos0.8
Almeria20%
BTTS rate
Burgos60%
Almeria20%
Over 2.5 goals
Burgos60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 54% · edge +6.5 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams average 1.6 goals per game, but Burgos has a significantly higher BTTS rate (60%) compared to Almeria’s 20%, suggesting Burgos games are more open offensively. However, Almeria’s defensive solidity and low Over 2.5 rate (20%) imply a cautious match with moderate scoring, favoring a tight contest rather than a high-scoring affair.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBurgos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Burgos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
The 60.6% for Burgos or Draw sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+6.5 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 2L
27 Sep 2026A Mallorca1-0
20 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II2-0
12 Sep 2026A Cordoba2-0
06 Sep 2026H Cadiz3-2
29 Aug 2026A Sabadell0-1

Burgos

WWWDD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
27 Sep 2026H Eldense1-0
20 Sep 2026A Las Palmas2-1
11 Sep 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A Oviedo0-0
31 Aug 2026H Real Sociedad II2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Burgos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Burgos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Almeria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Almeria to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Recent form shows Almeria with 12 points and Burgos with 11, reflecting closely matched momentum. Almeria’s strong defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per game contrasts with Burgos’ slightly higher concession rate but balanced attack, supporting the likelihood of a tight game where Burgos can secure at least a draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Almeria Over 2.5
60%Burgos Over 2.5
2.17H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.17, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters. Burgos’ recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting they can contribute to open play, but Almeria’s defensive discipline tempers the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides but not a goal-fest.

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