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Alianza Valledupar crestAlianza Valledupar
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Fortaleza FC crestFortaleza FC

Primera A | Mon 27 Jul, 00:10

Alianza Valledupar v Fortaleza FC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 26 Jul 2026, 04:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alianza Valledupar and Fortaleza FC meet in a Primera A clash where both teams are struggling near the bottom of the table, each yet to secure points this season. Recent matches have shown a physical edge, with both sides averaging multiple fouls and cards per game. The tactical setup suggests a competitive, high-intensity battle likely to feature aggressive midfield contests and frequent fouls as both teams seek to assert control and break their winless runs. This match's stakes and style point to a potentially card-heavy encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Alianza Valledupar averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical defensive approach.
  • Fortaleza FC concedes fewer cards but maintains a competitive fouling rate, contributing to card accumulation.
  • Both teams have a combined recent form showing aggressive play with multiple fouls and disciplinary actions.
  • Player data highlights several individuals with high card risk, increasing the likelihood of multiple bookings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 68.6% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, reflecting the teams' aggressive defensive styles and disciplinary records. Alianza Valledupar's high average of 3.2 yellow cards per game combined with Fortaleza FC's physical play supports this likelihood. Player-level data shows key midfielders and defenders with elevated card risks, reinforcing the expectation of a card-laden match. The competitive stakes and tactical intensity further justify this pick as a solid choice for bettors.

Alianza Valledupar Yellow Cards Average3.2 per game
Strong positive
Fortaleza FC Physical PlayHigh fouling rate
Positive
Player Card Risk ProfilesMultiple players with high card risk
Strong positive
Match Stakes and IntensityWinless teams fighting hard
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with both Alianza Valledupar and Fortaleza FC engaging in aggressive challenges to break their winless streaks. The defensive intensity and player card histories suggest multiple bookings, making Over 3.5 Cards a tactically and statistically sound selection for this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“This fixture's competitive desperation and aggressive midfield battles set the stage for a high card count, with several key players prone to bookings under pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Alianza Valledupar averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC concedes fewer cards but maintains a competitive fouling rate, contributing to card accumulation.

Both teams have a combined recent form showing aggressive play with multiple fouls and disciplinary actions.

Player data highlights several individuals with high card risk, increasing the likelihood of multiple bookings.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily a free-flowing game.
  • The trend suggests a match tempo that favors physical contests and interruptions, which typically result in more cards rather than goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alianza Valledupar1.2
Avg goals scored
Fortaleza FC1.2
Alianza Valledupar1.4
Avg goals conceded
Fortaleza FC1
Alianza Valledupar60%
BTTS rate
Fortaleza FC60%
Alianza Valledupar60%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortaleza FC40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game with moderate BTTS rates at 60%, suggesting open play but not necessarily high scoring. The goal trends imply physical contests with fouls and interruptions, indirectly supporting a higher card count rather than an emphasis on goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alianza Valledupar

DDLLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
03 May 2026H Millonarios2-2
27 Apr 2026A Llaneros0-0
19 Apr 2026H Independiente Medellin0-1
13 Apr 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-2
06 Apr 2026A Deportivo Pereira3-2

Fortaleza FC

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
03 May 2026H Bucaramanga2-1
26 Apr 2026A Independiente Medellin0-1
23 Apr 2026H America de Cali1-2
19 Apr 2026H Águilas Doradas2-0
04 Apr 2026H Internacional de Bogota1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Fortaleza FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Fortaleza FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Alianza Valledupar to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data shows Alianza Valledupar earning 5 points and Fortaleza FC 7 points with both sides conceding over one goal per game. The card averages align with a physical style, reinforcing the expectation of multiple bookings as both teams fight to improve their standings.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Fortaleza FC2320587-5
16Alianza Valledupar1820398-14
15Fortaleza FC2219577-5
17Alianza Valledupar1719388-14
9Alianza Valledupar110100
10Fortaleza FC110100
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Primera A table with zero points, increasing match intensity and desperation. This pressure often leads to more fouls and disciplinary actions, underpinning the likelihood of a card-heavy game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Fortaleza FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The Over 3.5 Cards market reflects a realistic expectation given the teams' disciplinary records and match context. While no explicit are available, the model's 68.6% chance indicates a strong probability, making this a sensible selection rather than a speculative one.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Alianza Valledupar4.4
Avg corners for
Fortaleza FC4.4
Alianza Valledupar10
Avg total corners
Fortaleza FC7.2
Alianza Valledupar3.2
Avg yellow cards
Fortaleza FC1.6
Alianza Valledupar12
Avg shots
Fortaleza FC11.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +7.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average around 4.4 corners per game and maintain moderate shot volumes, but the standout feature is Alianza Valledupar's 3.2 yellow cards per game versus Fortaleza FC's 1.5. This disparity highlights Alianza's aggressive defensive approach, contributing heavily to the card market context.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Alianza Valledupar wins
3Draws
2Fortaleza FC wins
17 Jan 2026Fortaleza FC v Alianza Valledupar1-0
28 Jul 2025Fortaleza FC v Alianza Valledupar2-2
26 Mar 2025Alianza Valledupar v Fortaleza FC0-0
08 Sep 2024Alianza Valledupar v Fortaleza FC1-1
28 Feb 2024Fortaleza FC v Alianza Valledupar1-2
20 Nov 2016Fortaleza FC v Alianza Valledupar1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Alianza Valledupar to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The seven previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating balanced encounters. While goal trends are moderate, the physical nature of these fixtures historically leads to fouls and cards, providing indirect support for the Over 3.5 Cards selection.
Season team stats

Primera A

Alianza Valledupar20
Played
Fortaleza FC20
Alianza Valledupar0.7
Avg goals for
Fortaleza FC1.2
Alianza Valledupar1.4
Avg goals against
Fortaleza FC1.4
Alianza Valledupar4
Clean sheets
Fortaleza FC3
Best odds for this sectionFortaleza FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Alianza Valledupar to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Season-long data reveals Alianza Valledupar's defensive aggression with a high yellow card average, while Fortaleza FC maintains a disciplined yet physical approach. These season stats support the Over 3.5 Cards pick as both teams engage in frequent fouling and tactical challenges.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alianza Valledupar Over 2.5
40%Fortaleza FC Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily a free-flowing game. The trend suggests a match tempo that favors physical contests and interruptions, which typically result in more cards rather than goals.

Related football research

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