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Águilas Doradas crestÁguilas Doradas
v
Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

Primera A | Sun 26 Jul, 22:05

Águilas Doradas v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 05:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Águilas Doradas face Santa Fe in a Primera A clash where both teams show contrasting defensive styles and disciplinary records. Águilas Doradas have conceded more goals and maintain a higher rate of over 2.5 goals matches, indicating open play and potential for fouls. Santa Fe's solid defense and lower goals conceded suggest tactical fouling to disrupt attacks. Both sides have key players involved in aggressive duels and fouling patterns, setting the stage for a match with several cautions. The fixture's intensity and tactical battles in midfield and attack heighten the likelihood of multiple cards.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Águilas Doradas average 2.8 yellow cards per match, Santa Fe 2.4, indicating frequent cautions.
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers with high fouling rates, e.g., M. Palacios averages 4.09 fouls per 90 minutes.
  • Recent form shows Águilas Doradas have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, often linked to increased fouls and cards.
  • Player data highlights several card-risk players on both sides, including C. Pineda with high yellow card rates.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 71.8% chance for over 3.5 cards, supported by both teams' disciplinary stats and playing styles. Águilas Doradas' higher average cards and Santa Fe's tactical fouling contribute to this elevated probability. Player-level data shows multiple individuals with significant card risk, reinforcing the likelihood of a card-heavy match. The combination of open attacking play and defensive pressure increases fouls and cautions, making over 3.5 cards a strong statistical expectation for this fixture.

Águilas Doradas average yellow cards2.8 per match
Strong positive
Santa Fe average yellow cards2.4 per match
Positive
Player card risk profilesSeveral players with high yellow card rates
Strong positive
Match tempo and attacking opennessHigh over 2.5 goals rate for Águilas Doradas
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically contested match with Águilas Doradas pushing forward and Santa Fe employing tactical fouling to disrupt play. The data on card averages and player fouling tendencies supports a bet on over 3.5 cards, reflecting the likely intensity and disciplinary challenges in this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“The combination of Águilas Doradas' aggressive attacking style and Santa Fe's disciplined but physical defense sets up a scenario ripe for multiple cautions. Key players with high fouling rates will influence the card count significantly.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Águilas Doradas average 2.8 yellow cards per match, Santa Fe 2.4, indicating frequent cautions.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers with high fouling rates, e.g., M. Palacios averages 4.09 fouls per 90 minutes.

Player data highlights several card-risk players on both sides, including C. Pineda with high yellow card rates.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.3, suggesting moderate scoring tempo.
  • This tempo, combined with physical midfield battles, often leads to tactical fouls and cards, supporting the trend towards multiple cautions in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Águilas Doradas3.2
Avg corners for
Santa Fe3.4
Águilas Doradas7.8
Avg total corners
Santa Fe6.6
Águilas Doradas2.8
Avg yellow cards
Santa Fe2.4
Águilas Doradas9.6
Avg shots
Santa Fe11.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
3
Check odds @ 3
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 39%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The match features moderate corner counts (3.2 and 3.4 average) and shot volumes, but the key driver for cards is the aggressive fouling patterns, especially from players like M. Palacios who averages over 4 fouls per 90 minutes, increasing card risk through sustained pressure and tactical fouls.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Águilas Doradas1.2
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe1.8
Águilas Doradas1.8
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe0.6
Águilas Doradas60%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe60%
Águilas Doradas80%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Águilas Doradas have a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, while Santa Fe sits at 40%. Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating open play that often leads to fouls and cards as defenses respond to attacking pressure.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Águilas Doradas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Águilas Doradas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
The over 3.5 cards market is supported by both teams' historical disciplinary records, with Águilas Doradas averaging 2.8 yellows and Santa Fe 2.4 per match. This pricing reflects a realistic expectation of a card-laden game given the tactical fouling and physical play styles evident in recent matches.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Águilas Doradas

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
03 May 2026A Independiente Medellin2-1
26 Apr 2026H Once Caldas2-2
19 Apr 2026A Fortaleza FC0-2
11 Apr 2026H Junior0-3
07 Apr 2026H Bucaramanga2-1

Santa Fe

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
24 May 2026A Junior0-0
17 May 2026H Junior1-1
13 May 2026H America de Cali4-0
10 May 2026A America de Cali1-1
03 May 2026H Internacional de Bogota3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Águilas Doradas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Águilas Doradas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent matches show Águilas Doradas frequently involved in games with multiple cards, aligning with their aggressive play and defensive vulnerabilities. Santa Fe's disciplined defense also contributes to tactical fouling, supporting the over 3.5 cards trend based on current form data.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Águilas Doradas wins
6Draws
2Santa Fe wins
19 Jan 2026Santa Fe v Águilas Doradas1-1
23 Jul 2025Santa Fe v Águilas Doradas0-0
07 Feb 2025Águilas Doradas v Santa Fe0-0
06 Oct 2024Santa Fe v Águilas Doradas0-0
25 Mar 2024Águilas Doradas v Santa Fe1-1
08 Oct 2023Santa Fe v Águilas Doradas0-5
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Águilas Doradas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3
Check odds @ 3
The ten previous meetings average 2.3 goals per game, indicating moderately open matches. While goal data is balanced, the physical nature of these encounters historically leads to a steady flow of fouls and cards, providing background support for the over 3.5 cards selection.
Season team stats

Primera A

Águilas Doradas20
Played
Santa Fe24
Águilas Doradas1.1
Avg goals for
Santa Fe1.5
Águilas Doradas1.3
Avg goals against
Santa Fe1.1
Águilas Doradas4
Clean sheets
Santa Fe3
Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Águilas Doradas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Águilas Doradas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Season-long data reveals Águilas Doradas have a higher average of yellow cards per match compared to Santa Fe, reflecting their more open and aggressive style. This trend underpins the expectation for a card-heavy encounter, especially given the players' individual disciplinary records.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Santa Fe3524811510
10Águilas Doradas2920857-4
7Santa Fe29197847
12Águilas Doradas2619757-5
6Águilas Doradas311001
14Santa Fe01001-1
While Águilas Doradas rank lower at 16th and Santa Fe 6th, the standings have limited direct impact on card totals. However, the competitive nature of the fixture and pressure on Águilas Doradas to improve results may increase physicality and fouling.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Águilas Doradas Over 2.5
40%Santa Fe Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.3, suggesting moderate scoring tempo. This tempo, combined with physical midfield battles, often leads to tactical fouls and cards, supporting the trend towards multiple cautions in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

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