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Alfreton Town crestAlfreton Town
v
Derby crestDerby

Friendlies Clubs | Fri 17 Jul, 19:30

Alfreton Town v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026, 13:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alfreton Town face Derby in Friendlies Clubs on Fri 17 Jul, 19:30. Alfreton Town come in with 1 recent points and 0.33 goals per match, while Derby have 0 points and - goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Alfreton Town to Win

  • At 34, Alfreton Town Win implies roughly 3%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • Alfreton Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Derby.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 38% for Alfreton Town Win sits against roughly 3% implied by the current price. Alfreton Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Derby.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 3% implied
Strong positive
Alfreton Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 1.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +35.1 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Alfreton Town Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Alfreton Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Derby. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Alfreton Town Win evidence

Alfreton Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 1 points from the sample compared with 0 for Derby.

What To Watch In The Data

Alfreton Town Win notes

    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Alfreton Town

    LDL
    Last 50W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 2L
    14 Jul 2026H Boston United1-2
    11 Jul 2026H Burton Albion0-0
    04 Jul 2026H Notts County0-5

    Derby

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Derby yet.

    Market aligned with main pickAlfreton Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 3% · edge +35.1 pts
    34
    Check odds @ 34
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Alfreton Town0.33
    Avg goals scored
    Derby-
    Alfreton Town2.33
    Avg goals conceded
    Derby-
    Alfreton Town33%
    BTTS rate
    Derby-
    Alfreton Town67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Derby-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 29% · edge +8.3 pts
    3.45
    Check odds @ 3.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAlfreton Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 3% · edge +35.1 pts
    34
    Check odds @ 34
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Alfreton Town to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Alfreton Town wins
    0Draws
    0Derby wins
    26 Jul 2022Alfreton Town v Derby2-1
    Market aligned with main pickAlfreton Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 3% · edge +35.1 pts
    34
    Check odds @ 34
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Alfreton Town to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies Clubs

    Alfreton Town4
    Played
    Derby1
    Alfreton Town0.3
    Avg goals for
    Derby2
    Alfreton Town2.3
    Avg goals against
    Derby0
    Alfreton Town1
    Clean sheets
    Derby1
    Market aligned with main pickAlfreton Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 3% · edge +35.1 pts
    34
    Check odds @ 34
    Season data supports Alfreton Town to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Alfreton Town Over 2.5
    -Derby Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Competition and hubs

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    View match centre