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Aldosivi crestAldosivi
v
Atletico Tucuman crestAtletico Tucuman

Liga Profesional Argentina | Mon 21 Sep, 18:30

Aldosivi v Atletico Tucuman Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 12:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aldosivi face Atletico Tucuman in Liga Profesional Argentina on Mon 21 Sep, 18:30. Aldosivi’s recent defensive issues are offset by Tucumán’s modest attack, making Under 2.5 Goals the most coherent expectation for this fixture. Atlético Tucumán’s strong away form and tight defense align with Aldosivi’s low scoring record, making a narrow 1-0 away win plausible.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2

  • At 2/5, Under 2 implies roughly 71%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • They scored three times and registered nine shots on target, with Tomas Fernandez, Lucas Nahuel Castro and Joaquin Pombo finding the net, yet still.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Aldosivi and 40% for Atletico Tucuman, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Aldosivi are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Atletico Tucuman at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Aldosivi and 40% for Atletico Tucuman show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 71% while the model sits nearer 56% (-15.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Atletico Tucuman Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.92.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 56% for Under 2 sits against roughly 71% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Aldosivi and 40% for Atletico Tucuman, so the goals angle is not just a price call. They scored three times and registered nine shots on target, with Tomas Fernandez, Lucas Nahuel Castro and Joaquin Pombo finding the net, yet still.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 71% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Aldosivi and 40%.Visible data support
Positive
Aldosivi are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6.Visible data support
Positive
They scored three times and registered nine shots on.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because both teams have low scoring averages and Atlético Tucumán’s strong defensive record supports a low-scoring game. Aldosivi are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Atletico Tucuman at 0.8. Aldosivi carry the stronger scoring threat, but Atlético Tucumán must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Aldosivi carry the stronger scoring threat, but Atlético Tucumán must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Both teams have low scoring averages and Atlético Tucumán’s strong defensive record supports a low-scoring game.

Aldosivi are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Atletico Tucuman at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 80% for Aldosivi and 40% for Atletico Tucuman show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aldosivi1.6
Avg goals scored
Atletico Tucuman0.8
Aldosivi2
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Tucuman0.6
Aldosivi80%
BTTS rate
Atletico Tucuman40%
Aldosivi80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Tucuman40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 69% · edge -13.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Aldosivi and 40% for Atletico Tucuman, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAtletico Tucuman Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Atletico Tucuman to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Aldosivi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Aldosivi to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Atletico Tucuman Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aldosivi

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
12 Sep 2026A Independ. Rivadavia3-4
05 Sep 2026H Banfield3-1
30 Aug 2026A Argentinos JRS1-2
21 Aug 2026H Union Santa Fe1-3
15 Aug 2026H Tigre0-0

Atletico Tucuman

LWDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
12 Sep 2026H River Plate1-2
07 Sep 2026A Racing Club2-1
30 Aug 2026H Belgrano Cordoba0-0
22 Aug 2026H Instituto Cordoba0-0
17 Aug 2026A Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 74% · edge +9.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Atletico Tucuman Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Atletico Tucuman to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Aldosivi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Aldosivi to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Aldosivi Over 2.5
40%Atletico Tucuman Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aldosivi sit at 80% and Atletico Tucuman sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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