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Trento crestTrento

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 04 Oct, 19:30

Alcione v Trento Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone A clash features Trento visiting Alcione in a fixture where Trento holds a slight edge in the standings and recent form. Trento sits fifth with 13 points, while Alcione is seventh with 10 points. Trento's defense has been notably solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Alcione's 2.0, suggesting a tactical emphasis on defensive organization. Alcione has shown attacking promise but defensive vulnerabilities, making this an intriguing matchup of contrasting styles. The game carries importance for both sides aiming to consolidate their league positions early in the season.

BT4Y best bet

Trento to Win

  • Trento ranks 5th with 13 points, slightly ahead of Alcione's 7th place and 10 points.
  • Trento concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive stability.
  • Alcione scores 1.4 goals per game but concedes 2.0, showing defensive fragility.
  • Recent form favors Trento with 9 points versus Alcione's 6 in recent matches.
  • Trento's to win is 61.7%, with a positive of 14.1% at of 2.1.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Trento to win based on their superior defensive record and slightly better recent form. Despite both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored per game, Trento's ability to limit opponents to just 0.4 goals per match contrasts sharply with Alcione's 2.0 goals conceded, highlighting a defensive edge. The of 2.1 offer positive value given the 61.7% model win probability. This defensive solidity combined with consistent point accumulation underpins the in Trento's chances. No data limitations affect this analysis, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Defensive strengthTrento concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent formTrento earned 9 points recently vs Alcione's 6
Positive
Goal scoringBoth teams average 1.4 goals per game
Neutral
Odds value61.7% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+14.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Trento's disciplined defensive approach and recent form give them a tactical and statistical edge in this fixture. Their ability to restrict goals against combined with consistent point gains makes them the likely winners in this Serie C encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and form advantage

“Trento's defensive resilience and steady accumulation of points position them well to capitalize on Alcione's defensive vulnerabilities in this match.”

Key Data Signals

Trento to Win evidence

Trento ranks 5th with 13 points, slightly ahead of Alcione's 7th place and 10 points.

Trento concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive stability.

Alcione scores 1.4 goals per game but concedes 2.0, showing defensive fragility.

Recent form favors Trento with 9 points versus Alcione's 6 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Trento to Win notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.25, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with Trento's defensive strength, suggests a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with a lower-scoring match profile.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alcione1.4
Avg goals scored
Trento1.4
Alcione2
Avg goals conceded
Trento0.4
Alcione80%
BTTS rate
Trento20%
Alcione60%
Over 2.5 goals
Trento40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams average 1.4 goals per game, but Alcione concedes significantly more, indicating potential for goals. However, Trento's low goals conceded rate and Alcione's 80% BTTS rate versus Trento's 20% suggest a mixed goal-scoring outlook, with a moderate chance for goals but defensive discipline from Trento likely limiting high scoring.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alcione

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Albinoleffe1-1
20 Sep 2026H Union Brescia0-4
17 Sep 2026A PRO Vercelli2-2
13 Sep 2026A Folgore Caratese3-2
07 Sep 2026H Treviso1-1

Trento

DWDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 0L
26 Sep 2026A Pergolettese0-0
21 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli4-0
17 Sep 2026A Giana Erminio2-2
13 Sep 2026H Union Brescia0-0
07 Sep 2026H Lecco1-0
Market aligned with main pickTrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Trento Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Trento's recent form is stronger, with 9 points compared to Alcione's 6, reflecting better consistency and momentum. This form advantage, combined with a tighter defense, suggests Trento is more likely to control the match tempo and secure a positive result.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTrento to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 48% · edge +14.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Trento Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 61.7% for Trento to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+14.1 pts). Trento have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Alcione.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alcione Over 2.5
40%Trento Over 2.5
1.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.25, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with Trento's defensive strength, suggests a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with a lower-scoring match profile.

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