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Albacete crestAlbacete
v
Eibar crestEibar

Segunda División | Sat 03 Oct, 13:00

Albacete v Eibar Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Eibar arrives in strong form at Albacete, boasting 15 points from recent matches and sitting second in the Segunda División standings. Albacete struggles with just 1 point and a low goal output, highlighting a tactical mismatch. Eibar's efficient attack and solid defense contrast with Albacete's difficulties in scoring and conceding, setting the stage for a likely away victory. The fixture's early season timing adds intensity as Eibar aims to consolidate promotion hopes while Albacete seeks to escape the relegation zone.

BT4Y best bet

Eibar to Win

  • Eibar ranks 2nd with 18 points, Albacete 22nd with 1 point.
  • Eibar averages 2.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game.
  • Albacete has scored 0.4 goals per game and conceded 1.6 on average.
  • Eibar's recent form includes 80% Over 2.5 Goals matches, Albacete only 20%.
  • Eibar's Malcom Adu contributes 2 goals and 3 assists, showing attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Eibar to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, goal-scoring efficiency, and defensive solidity compared to Albacete. Eibar's high of 30.8% at of 2.55 indicates clear value in backing the away side. The team's ability to create quality chances, led by key players like Malcom Adu and Iván Gil, combined with Albacete's struggles in attack and defense, supports this confident prediction. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormEibar dominant, 15 points vs 1
Strong positive
Goal ScoringEibar 2.6 avg goals, Albacete 0.4
Strong positive
Defensive RecordEibar concedes 0.6, Albacete 1.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Eibar's superior form and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their strong defensive record and ability to control games tactically provide a solid foundation, while Albacete's struggles in scoring and defense suggest they will find it difficult to challenge effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Eibar's consistent offensive threat and defensive discipline set them apart in this fixture, making their victory the most logical outcome given the current form and squad quality.”

Key Data Signals

Eibar to Win evidence

Eibar ranks 2nd with 18 points, Albacete 22nd with 1 point.

Eibar averages 2.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game.

Albacete has scored 0.4 goals per game and conceded 1.6 on average.

Eibar's recent form includes 80% Over 2.5 Goals matches, Albacete only 20%.

What To Watch In The Data

Eibar to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.75, indicating a moderately open game historically.
  • Eibar's recent matches show a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals, driven by their attacking tempo and ability to exploit defensive gaps, suggesting this fixture could follow a similar pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Albacete0.4
Avg goals scored
Eibar2.6
Albacete1.6
Avg goals conceded
Eibar0.6
Albacete40%
BTTS rate
Eibar40%
Albacete20%
Over 2.5 goals
Eibar80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 51% · edge +4.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Eibar's matches have featured a high rate of goals, with 80% going over 2.5, while Albacete's games are generally low scoring. This contrast suggests a game leaning towards multiple goals, driven by Eibar's attacking prowess and Albacete's defensive vulnerabilities, though BTTS rates are moderate at 40% for both.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Eibar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 54.2% for Eibar to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 1 for Albacete.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Albacete

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 6L
25 Sep 2026A Girona0-2
18 Sep 2026H Cordoba1-2
12 Sep 2026A Granada CF1-1
06 Sep 2026A Castellón0-2
29 Aug 2026H Oviedo0-1

Eibar

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 1L
27 Sep 2026H Las Palmas3-2
19 Sep 2026A Eldense2-1
14 Sep 2026A Celta de Vigo II4-0
06 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-0
30 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-0
Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Eibar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Eibar's recent form is dominant, securing 15 points with a strong goal difference, contrasting sharply with Albacete's single point and poor offensive output. This momentum disparity underlines Eibar's and tactical cohesion, increasing their chances of controlling the match and securing victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Albacete Over 2.5
80%Eibar Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.75, indicating a moderately open game historically. Eibar's recent matches show a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals, driven by their attacking tempo and ability to exploit defensive gaps, suggesting this fixture could follow a similar pattern.

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