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Al-Nassr crestAl-Nassr
v
Abha crestAbha

Pro League | Wed 09 Sep, 19:00

Al-Nassr v Abha Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 12:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Nassr face Abha in Pro League on Wed 09 Sep, 19:00. Al-Nassr have scored 13 goals in five league matches, more than three times Abha’s total of four, highlighting the attacking gap between the sides. Al-Nassr’s strong recent form contrasts with Abha’s winless run, favouring the home side.

BT4Y best bet

Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 13/10, Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Al-Nassr’s potent attack, scoring 13 goals in five games, and their perfect home record underpin this pick.
  • Al-Nassr need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Al-Nassr on 12 and Abha on 1.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Al-Nassr and 60% for Abha.
  • Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2.6 for Al-Nassr and 0.8 for Abha are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Al-Nassr need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Al-Nassr on 12 and Abha on 1. Al-Nassr’s potent attack, scoring 13 goals in five games, and their perfect home record underpin this pick.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Neutral
Al-Nassr need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Al-Nassr’s potent attack, scoring 13 goals in five games.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Al-Nassr Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because al-Nassr’s potent attack, scoring that scoring level in five games, and their perfect home record underpin this pick. Al-Nassr need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Al-Nassr on 12 and Abha on 1. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score evidence

Al-Nassr’s potent attack, scoring that scoring level in five games, and their perfect home record underpin this pick.

Al-Nassr need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Al-Nassr on 12 and Abha on 1.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Al-Nassr and 60% for Abha.

Al-Nassr Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2.6 for Al-Nassr and 0.8 for Abha are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Al Nassr to Win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Nassr2.6
Avg goals scored
Abha0.8
Al-Nassr1
Avg goals conceded
Abha2.2
Al-Nassr60%
BTTS rate
Abha60%
Al-Nassr100%
Over 2.5 goals
Abha60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Nassr Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 89% · edge -11.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Al-Nassr to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Al-Nassr Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Nassr

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Al-Ittihad FC1-2
28 Aug 2026H Al Taawon2-1
25 Aug 2026A Al-Ettifaq3-2
21 Aug 2026A Al Riyadh4-0
15 Aug 2026H Al-Fateh3-0

Abha

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 4L
04 Sep 2026H Al-Ettifaq0-1
28 Aug 2026A Al-Fayha2-3
25 Aug 2026H Al Khaleej Saihat1-1
22 Aug 2026A Al-Ahli Jeddah0-4
13 Aug 2026H Al-Hazm1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 96% · edge -10.2 pts
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
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Al-Nassr Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Al-Nassr to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Nassr Over 2.5
60%Abha Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Al-Nassr sit at 100% and Abha sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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