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Al-Hazm crestAl-Hazm
v
NEOM crestNEOM

Pro League | Sat 10 Oct, 14:50

Al-Hazm v NEOM Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Saudi Pro League clash features NEOM traveling to face Al-Hazm, with NEOM currently fifth in the standings and showing stronger recent form and offensive output. NEOM has accumulated 15 points with a more efficient attack, averaging 1.8 goals per game, compared to Al-Hazm's 8 points and lower scoring rate. NEOM's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and higher shot volume, while Al-Hazm has struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity. The match offers NEOM a chance to consolidate their top-half position against a side seeking to improve their mid-table standing.

BT4Y best bet

NEOM to Win

  • NEOM ranks 5th with 15 points, Al-Hazm 10th with 8 points.
  • NEOM averages 1.8 goals per game versus Al-Hazm's 1.0.
  • NEOM has a higher average of shots (15) and shots on target (4.6) than Al-Hazm (11 and 3.2).
  • NEOM concedes fewer goals per game (1.0) compared to Al-Hazm (1.4).
  • NEOM's recent form shows 9 points gained, indicating momentum over Al-Hazm's 5 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors NEOM to win with a 65.9% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, offensive efficiency, and league standing. NEOM's higher shot volume and better goal conversion underpin this , alongside a more robust defensive record. The at 1.73 offer positive value against the implied 57.8% chance, making NEOM a solid pick. No data limitations affect , and the model's 65% rating supports a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability65.9%
Strong positive
NEOM Offensive Output1.8 goals per game
Strong positive
NEOM Defensive Solidity1.0 goals conceded per game
Positive
Price Value Edge65.9% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+8.1 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level65%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

NEOM's superior attacking threat and recent momentum make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline underpins the data-driven in this pick. Al-Hazm's struggles to score and defend consistently reduce their chances against a confident NEOM side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“NEOM's balanced attack and defensive resilience position them well to capitalize on Al-Hazm's vulnerabilities, making a win the most probable outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

NEOM to Win evidence

NEOM ranks 5th with 15 points, Al-Hazm 10th with 8 points.

NEOM averages 1.8 goals per game versus Al-Hazm's 1.0.

NEOM has a higher average of shots (15) and shots on target (4.6) than Al-Hazm (11 and 3.2).

NEOM concedes fewer goals per game (1.0) compared to Al-Hazm (1.4).

What To Watch In The Data

NEOM to Win notes

  • The last five matches for both teams show a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, with an average of 2.4 goals per game in their head-to-head meetings.
  • This suggests a moderate scoring tempo, where goals are likely but not excessively high, aligning with NEOM's controlled attacking style and Al-Hazm's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Hazm1
Avg goals scored
NEOM1.8
Al-Hazm1.4
Avg goals conceded
NEOM1
Al-Hazm60%
BTTS rate
NEOM20%
Al-Hazm40%
Over 2.5 goals
NEOM40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 50% · edge +9.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but NEOM's lower BTTS rate of 20% compared to Al-Hazm's 60% suggests NEOM games tend to be more controlled with fewer conceded goals. This points to a match where NEOM may win with a moderate goal margin rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNEOM to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
NEOM Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 65.9% for NEOM to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+8.1 pts). NEOM have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Al-Hazm.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Hazm

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
11 Sep 2026A Al-Ahli Jeddah1-3
08 Sep 2026H Al Taawon1-0
05 Sep 2026A Al-Faisaly FC0-0
30 Aug 2026H Al Shabab1-1
24 Aug 2026A Al-Ittihad FC2-3

NEOM

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Al-Fateh4-2
07 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-0
03 Sep 2026H Al Khaleej Saihat3-0
28 Aug 2026A Al Riyadh0-1
24 Aug 2026H Al-Qadisiyah FC0-2
Market aligned with main pickNEOM to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
NEOM Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
NEOM's recent form shows 9 points gained with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game, reflecting effective offensive and defensive balance. Al-Hazm's 5 points and lower scoring rate highlight their struggles to maintain momentum. This form disparity supports NEOM's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Al-Hazm Over 2.5
40%NEOM Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The last five matches for both teams show a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, with an average of 2.4 goals per game in their head-to-head meetings. This suggests a moderate scoring tempo, where goals are likely but not excessively high, aligning with NEOM's controlled attacking style and Al-Hazm's defensive vulnerabilities.

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