Football Stats Hub

Ajax crestAjax
v
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie | Sat 05 Sep, 19:00

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven meet in a high-stakes Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Ajax has scored an average of 2.67 goals per game recently, while PSV boasts an even more potent attack with 3.75 goals per game. Defensively, Ajax concedes fewer goals, but PSV's offensive firepower and recent form suggest an open, high-scoring encounter. Both teams have shown a tendency for games with multiple goals, setting the stage for a lively match with plenty of goalmouth action.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Ajax averages 2.67 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form.
  • PSV Eindhoven scores 3.75 goals per game, showing potent offense.
  • Both teams have a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (Ajax 67%, PSV 100%).
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring outlook.
  • PSV’s average of 23.75 shots and 10 shots on target per game signals sustained offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, slightly above the market's 55.6% implied probability, indicating a small positive value. Both Ajax and PSV have demonstrated strong attacking output and a tendency for high-scoring games, supported by recent form and head-to-head averages. The attacking roles of key players like Marcos Leonardo and PSV’s D. Man, who generate numerous shots and shots on target, further enhance the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations reduce in this projection.

Model Chance58%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance55.6%
Neutral
Recent Goals ForAjax 2.67, PSV 3.75 per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals4 goals per game
Positive
Shots and Shots on TargetHigh volume from both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Ajax and PSV Eindhoven have potent offenses and a history of high-scoring matches. The tactical approach and recent form suggest multiple goals, making over 3.5 goals a compelling choice based on offensive momentum and shot volume.

Main risk

PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger scoring threat, but Ajax must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking intensity and shot volume

“This fixture features two of the Eredivisie's most aggressive attacking teams, with both sides consistently generating high shot volumes and goal-scoring chances. The statistical signals strongly point towards a match with several goals scored.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Ajax averages 2.67 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form.

PSV Eindhoven scores 3.75 goals per game, showing potent offense.

Both teams have a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (Ajax 67%, PSV 100%).

Recent head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 4 per game, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and open play conducive to over 2.5 goals or more in this match.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ajax5.5
Avg corners for
PSV Eindhoven8.33
Ajax9
Avg total corners
PSV Eindhoven10
Ajax1.5
Avg yellow cards
PSV Eindhoven0.67
Ajax17.5
Avg shots
PSV Eindhoven21.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
PSV averages 9.5 corners and 23.75 shots per game, while Ajax averages 7 corners and 20.33 shots, reflecting sustained attacking pressure from both sides. The lower card count, especially for PSV, suggests disciplined play, allowing continuous offensive flow and shot creation opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Eredivisie analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ajax2.67
Avg goals scored
PSV Eindhoven3.75
Ajax0.67
Avg goals conceded
PSV Eindhoven1.25
Ajax33%
BTTS rate
PSV Eindhoven100%
Ajax67%
Over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both Ajax and PSV have shown strong goal-scoring form, with PSV's matches always exceeding 2.5 goals and Ajax doing so 67% of the time. However, Ajax's lower BTTS rate of 33% compared to PSV's 100% suggests PSV consistently scores, while Ajax occasionally keeps clean sheets, indicating a likely high total but less certainty on both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Ajax Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Ajax to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
The over 3.5 goals market is priced around 1.8 with a slight as the model's 58% chance exceeds the implied 55.6%. This suggests a modestly favorable price for backing a high-scoring game, reflecting the offensive strengths of both teams and recent scoring trends.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ajax

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Telstar4-0
16 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2
09 Aug 2026A PEC Zwolle2-0

PSV Eindhoven

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Utrecht6-1
23 Aug 2026H Groningen5-1
15 Aug 2026A Excelsior2-1
08 Aug 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 71% · edge +11.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Ajax Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Ajax to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent form data shows Ajax scoring 2.67 goals per game and PSV 3.75, with PSV hitting over 2.5 goals in all recent matches. This offensive momentum from both sides supports the over 3.5 goals prediction, reflecting their capacity to break down defenses consistently.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ajax wins
4Draws
4PSV Eindhoven wins
02 May 2026Ajax v PSV Eindhoven2-2
21 Sep 2025PSV Eindhoven v Ajax2-2
30 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven v Ajax0-2
02 Nov 2024Ajax v PSV Eindhoven3-2
03 Feb 2024Ajax v PSV Eindhoven1-1
29 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven v Ajax5-2
Best odds for this sectionPSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Ajax to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
The ten previous meetings between Ajax and PSV have averaged four goals per game, underscoring a history of open, attacking contests. This head-to-head data supports the expectation of a high-scoring match, reinforcing the over 3.5 goals selection.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

Ajax3
Played
PSV Eindhoven4
Ajax2.7
Avg goals for
PSV Eindhoven3.8
Ajax0.7
Avg goals against
PSV Eindhoven1.3
Ajax2
Clean sheets
PSV Eindhoven0
Best odds for this sectionPSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Ajax Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ajax to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Season-long statistics reveal both teams maintain high scoring rates and relatively moderate defensive concessions, with Ajax conceding 0.67 goals and PSV 1.25 per game. These figures align with a match likely to produce several goals, consistent with the over 3.5 goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2PSV Eindhoven10431010
4Ajax732106
PSV sits second and Ajax fourth in the Eredivisie, with PSV holding a slight points advantage. While standings add context, the attacking styles and recent scoring trends are more decisive for this fixture's goal expectations than table position alone.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Ajax Over 2.5
100%PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 4 per game, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and open play conducive to over 2.5 goals or more in this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Sparta Rotterdam v PEC ZwolleEredivisie · Fri 04 Sep 19:00NEC Nijmegen v FeyenoordEredivisie · Sat 05 Sep 15:30Utrecht v GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie · Sat 05 Sep 17:45Willem II v ExcelsiorEredivisie · Sat 05 Sep 20:00

Competition and hubs

Eredivisie hubmore Eredivisie analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre