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AIK Stockholm crestAIK Stockholm
v
Orgryte IS crestOrgryte IS

Allsvenskan | Sun 02 Aug, 15:30

AIK Stockholm v Orgryte IS Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 06:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AIK Stockholm hosts Orgryte IS in a crucial Allsvenskan clash where the home side aims to consolidate their mid-table position against a struggling Orgryte IS side. AIK Stockholm have shown solid defensive organization and effective attacking transitions recently, while Orgryte IS face challenges in maintaining defensive stability. The match carries significant stakes for both teams, with AIK Stockholm seeking to build momentum and Orgryte IS fighting to climb out of the relegation zone. Tactical discipline and exploiting key attacking players will be decisive in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

AIK Stockholm to Win

  • AIK Stockholm ranks 6th with 22 points; Orgryte IS is 15th with 10 points.
  • AIK Stockholm concedes fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to Orgryte IS (2.0).
  • AIK Stockholm averages 9.5 shots per game with 2.5 on target, showing attacking intent.
  • Orgryte IS has a higher average of shots (11) and shots on target (3.5), indicating offensive pressure but defensive vulnerability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

AIK Stockholm holds a strong 69% to win, supported by their superior league standing and more balanced defensive record. Their recent form shows better points accumulation and a more effective defense than Orgryte IS, who concede twice as many goals on average. AIK's attacking players, notably A. Helm, contribute significant shot volume and goal threat, enhancing their winning prospects. The data quality is robust, with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection as a solid football choice.

Model Win Probability69%
Strong positive
Defensive StabilityAIK concedes 1.0 goals per game vs Orgryte's 2.0
Strong positive
Recent Points FormAIK 10 points vs Orgryte 5 in recent matches
Positive
Attacking ThreatA. Helm leads AIK with 11.25 shots on target per 90 minutes
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AIK Stockholm's tactical discipline and superior defensive record make them the logical choice to secure victory against a vulnerable Orgryte IS. The home side's ability to convert chances through key attackers like A. Helm, combined with Orgryte's defensive frailties, underpins this confident win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“AIK Stockholm's blend of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency, especially through Helm's prolific shooting, positions them well to control this match and capitalize on Orgryte IS's defensive weaknesses.”

Key Data Signals

AIK Stockholm to Win evidence

AIK Stockholm ranks 6th with 22 points; Orgryte IS is 15th with 10 points.

AIK Stockholm concedes fewer goals on average (1.0) compared to Orgryte IS (2.0).

AIK Stockholm averages 9.5 shots per game with 2.5 on target, showing attacking intent.

Orgryte IS has a higher average of shots (11) and shots on target (3.5), indicating offensive pressure but defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

AIK Stockholm to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a potential for a more open game with goal-scoring opportunities arising from transitions and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AIK Stockholm1.2
Avg goals scored
Orgryte IS1.2
AIK Stockholm1
Avg goals conceded
Orgryte IS2
AIK Stockholm40%
BTTS rate
Orgryte IS40%
AIK Stockholm60%
Over 2.5 goals
Orgryte IS60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 42% · edge +13.9 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game, but Orgryte IS concedes twice as many goals as AIK Stockholm, suggesting a match prone to goals from the home side. However, both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of both teams scoring, with AIK's defense likely to limit Orgryte's scoring chances.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

AIK Stockholm14
Played
Orgryte IS14
AIK Stockholm1.3
Avg goals for
Orgryte IS1
AIK Stockholm1.3
Avg goals against
Orgryte IS2.4
AIK Stockholm3
Clean sheets
Orgryte IS2
Market aligned with main pickAIK Stockholm to WinBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge +0 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
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AIK Stockholm Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Over the season, AIK Stockholm's defense has been more robust, conceding an average of 1 goal per game compared to Orgryte IS's 2. AIK's attack, while not prolific, is efficient with key players contributing consistently, supporting their status as favorites in this fixture.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AIK Stockholm

DWWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
27 Jul 2026A BK Hacken0-0
18 Jul 2026H Gais2-0
11 Jul 2026A Mjallby AIF2-1
05 Jul 2026A IFK Goteborg2-1
30 May 2026H Sirius0-3

Orgryte IS

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
24 Jul 2026A Vasteras SK FK0-2
20 Jul 2026H Djurgardens IF0-0
11 Jul 2026H BK Hacken4-3
05 Jul 2026A Kalmar FF0-3
29 May 2026H IF Elfsborg2-2
Market aligned with main pickAIK Stockholm to WinBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge +0 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
AIK Stockholm Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
AIK Stockholm has accumulated 10 points recently with a balanced goal scoring and defensive record, while Orgryte IS has only 5 points and concedes more goals. This recent form disparity highlights AIK's momentum and defensive resilience as key factors favoring their win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAIK Stockholm to WinBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge +0 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
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AIK Stockholm Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The current market pricing for AIK Stockholm to win aligns with the model's 69% probability, indicating a fair valuation without significant . The reflect AIK's stronger league position and defensive record, making this a price-sensitive but reasonable selection based on available data.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AIK Stockholm4.6
Avg corners for
Orgryte IS4.25
AIK Stockholm10.2
Avg total corners
Orgryte IS10.5
AIK Stockholm1.6
Avg yellow cards
Orgryte IS1.25
AIK Stockholm11.4
Avg shots
Orgryte IS11.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Orgryte IS averages slightly more corners (4) and shots (11) than AIK Stockholm, reflecting their offensive pressure despite defensive struggles. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, with Orgryte slightly higher, indicating a competitive match with moderate fouling and set-piece opportunities influencing the flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2AIK Stockholm wins
0Draws
0Orgryte IS wins
19 Feb 2022AIK Stockholm v Orgryte IS2-0
01 Mar 2020Orgryte IS v AIK Stockholm0-1
Market aligned with main pickAIK Stockholm to WinBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge +0 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The two recent meetings between AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS have averaged 1.5 goals per game, indicating tight contests. While the sample is limited, these encounters suggest a cautious approach from both sides historically, though current form favors AIK Stockholm's ability to break through.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6AIK Stockholm22146440
15Orgryte IS1014248-19
AIK Stockholm's 6th place standing with 22 points contrasts sharply with Orgryte IS's 15th place and 10 points, reflecting a significant gap in performance and league pressure. This standing difference underlines AIK's motivation to maintain their position and Orgryte's struggle to avoid relegation.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AIK Stockholm Over 2.5
60%Orgryte IS Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a potential for a more open game with goal-scoring opportunities arising from transitions and defensive gaps.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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