AF Elbasani
Bate BorisovUEFA Europa Conference League | Tue 07 Jul, 19:00
AF Elbasani v Bate Borisov Stats
Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 22:13 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
AF Elbasani face Bate Borisov in UEFA Europa Conference League on Tue 07 Jul, 19:00. AF Elbasani carry strong home advantage at Elbasan Arena, where they have hit the net consistently with an 84% overall scoring rate.
On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time
- Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 43% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
- At 11/20, On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
- Across 44 played games, they have scored 58 goals, averaging 1.32 per match, and conceded 47, averaging 1.07.
On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 43% (-21.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Bate Borisov Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.7.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 43% for On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Across 44 played games, they have scored 58 goals, averaging 1.32 per match, and conceded 47, averaging 1.07.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: AF Elbasani Win is the preferred angle because across 44 played games, they have scored that scoring level, averaging 1.32 per match, and conceded 47, averaging 1.07. They have scored in 13 of 22 matches, or 59%, which is respectable but less reliable than AF Elbasani’s scoring rate.
They have scored in 13 of 22 matches, or 59%, which is respectable but less reliable than AF Elbasani’s scoring rate.
Key Data Signals
On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time evidence
Across 44 played games, they have scored 58 goals, averaging 1.32 per match, and conceded 47, averaging 1.07.
What To Watch In The Data
On three distinct final outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2) at the conclusion of regular time notes
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
AF Elbasani
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Bate Borisov
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
UEFA Europa Conference League
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
