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ADO Den Haag crestADO Den Haag
v
Fortuna Sittard crestFortuna Sittard

Eredivisie | Sun 06 Sep, 15:45

ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortuna Sittard arrives in this Eredivisie clash with solid momentum, having collected seven points from their opening matches, contrasting with ADO Den Haag's single point and defensive struggles. Fortuna's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and efficient attacking transitions, supported by key players like M. Romeny, who contribute significantly to goal threats. ADO Den Haag's defensive vulnerabilities and lower form place them under pressure, making Fortuna the clear favorite in this encounter at a neutral venue.

BT4Y best bet

Fortuna Sittard to Win

  • Fortuna Sittard holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 3.1 .
  • Fortuna has conceded fewer goals per game (1.75) compared to ADO Den Haag (2.75).
  • Both teams have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.
  • Romeny averages 2.16 shots on target per 90 minutes, leading their offensive threat.
  • ADO Den Haag ranks 16th with only 1 point, while Fortuna sits 6th with 7 points, reflecting form disparity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fortuna Sittard to win due to their superior recent form, defensive solidity, and attacking efficiency. Fortuna's players, especially O. Ihattaren, consistently generate high-quality chances, while ADO Den Haag's defensive record and low points tally underline their struggles. The of 3.1 offer strong value given the 70% , making Fortuna a compelling selection. The data quality is robust for both teams, supporting in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance32.3%
Strong positive
Recent Defensive RecordsFortuna concedes 1.75 vs ADO's 2.75 goals per game
Positive
Attacking ThreatHigh shots on target from Fortuna's forwards
Positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fortuna Sittard's superior form and sharper attacking players give them a tactical edge over ADO Den Haag, whose defensive frailties have been exposed early in the season. The data confirms Fortuna's ability to control games and create quality chances, making their win the most probable outcome in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage for Fortuna Sittard

“Fortuna Sittard's consistent offensive pressure and defensive resilience position them well to exploit ADO Den Haag's vulnerabilities in this match.”

Key Data Signals

Fortuna Sittard to Win evidence

Fortuna Sittard holds a 70% to win, with strong value at 3.1 .

Fortuna has conceded fewer goals per game (1.75) compared to ADO Den Haag (2.75).

Both teams have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.

Romeny averages 2.16 shots on target per 90 minutes, leading their offensive threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Fortuna Sittard to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.17, aligning with both teams' 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This trend suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a lively tempo, favoring attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ADO Den Haag1
Avg goals scored
Fortuna Sittard2
ADO Den Haag2.75
Avg goals conceded
Fortuna Sittard1.75
ADO Den Haag75%
BTTS rate
Fortuna Sittard75%
ADO Den Haag75%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and attacking intent. Fortuna's offensive players generate significant shots on target, while ADO Den Haag's defensive record suggests susceptibility to conceding, supporting a goal-rich game with BTTS likely.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The for Fortuna Sittard to win at 3.1 present strong value compared to the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy indicates the market underestimates Fortuna's chances, making the selection price-sensitive and attractive. Any drift higher would further enhance value.

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Useful next reads

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

ADO Den Haag4.5
Avg corners for
Fortuna Sittard2.25
ADO Den Haag11.25
Avg total corners
Fortuna Sittard11.75
ADO Den Haag1.5
Avg yellow cards
Fortuna Sittard1.25
ADO Den Haag11
Avg shots
Fortuna Sittard9.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
ADO Den Haag averages 4.5 corners per game, indicating some attacking pressure, but Fortuna's defensive discipline and lower foul rate (1.25 yellows per game) suggest controlled aggression. Fortuna's higher shots on target (5 per game) reflect their offensive focus, balancing the corner and card dynamics.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ADO Den Haag

DLLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
30 Aug 2026A Feyenoord2-2
23 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-3
16 Aug 2026H Groningen1-4
08 Aug 2026A AZ Alkmaar0-2

Fortuna Sittard

WLWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
28 Aug 2026A Groningen3-2
22 Aug 2026H AZ Alkmaar0-2
15 Aug 2026H Cambuur3-1
08 Aug 2026A PSV Eindhoven2-2
Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Fortuna Sittard's accumulation of 7 points early in the season, combined with a better defensive record, contrasts sharply with ADO Den Haag's solitary point and higher goals conceded. This form disparity underlines Fortuna's momentum and readiness to secure another victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1ADO Den Haag wins
1Draws
4Fortuna Sittard wins
25 Apr 2021ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard0-3
20 Feb 2021Fortuna Sittard v ADO Den Haag2-0
09 Nov 2019Fortuna Sittard v ADO Den Haag1-0
31 Oct 2019Fortuna Sittard v ADO Den Haag3-0
03 Apr 2019Fortuna Sittard v ADO Den Haag0-0
24 Aug 2018ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard3-1
Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The six previous encounters between these teams show an average of 2.17 goals per match, indicating moderately open games. While the sample is limited, Fortuna Sittard's recent form and tactical improvements provide stronger support for their winning chances than historical results alone.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag4
Played
Fortuna Sittard4
ADO Den Haag1
Avg goals for
Fortuna Sittard2
ADO Den Haag2.8
Avg goals against
Fortuna Sittard1.8
ADO Den Haag0
Clean sheets
Fortuna Sittard0
Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long statistics show Fortuna Sittard maintaining a more balanced attack and defense, scoring 2 goals while conceding 1.75 per game, compared to ADO Den Haag's 1 goal scored and 2.75 conceded. This balance supports Fortuna's ability to control matches and secure wins.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Fortuna Sittard742111
16ADO Den Haag14013-7
Fortuna Sittard's 6th place standing with 7 points reflects competitive consistency, while ADO Den Haag's 16th place and 1 point highlight struggles. The league context emphasizes Fortuna's stronger position and motivation to maintain upward trajectory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%ADO Den Haag Over 2.5
75%Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5
2.17H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.17, aligning with both teams' 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season. This trend suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a lively tempo, favoring attacking play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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