AC Milan

Benfica

UEFA Europa League | Wed 16 Sep, 20:00

AC Milan v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AC Milan hosts Benfica in a high-stakes UEFA Europa League opener at San Siro. Milan, unbeaten under Ruben Amorim with a solid start, have shown resilience but also defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in recent matches against Juventus and Lazio. Benfica arrive on a seven-match winning streak, scoring freely with Vangelis Pavlidis leading their attack. Defensive adjustments due to injury add intrigue, while both teams' recent scoring trends suggest an open, attacking contest. The clash promises tactical battles with Milan's home advantage tested by Benfica's potent offense and momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

Both teams have scored in 8 of AC Milan's last 10 matches.
Benfica has scored at least twice in each of their last 6 games.
Milan have kept only one clean sheet in their last 4 matches.
Benfica is on a 7-match winning streak with high goal output.
Vangelis Pavlidis has 14 goals in 11 appearances this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score pick is supported by Milan's defensive record, with only one clean sheet in four matches, and Benfica's prolific scoring form, netting at least twice in six consecutive games. The model assigns a 76% chance to BTTS, higher than the implied 65.2%, indicating solid value. Milan's recent matches show defensive gaps that Benfica's attack, led by Pavlidis, can exploit. Benfica's sustained goal output across competitions further strengthens the case. No significant data limitations affect in this pick.

Milan Defensive VulnerabilityOnly 1 clean sheet in 4 matches

Strong positive

Benfica Scoring FormAt least 2 goals in last 6 games

Strong positive

Model Chance vs Implied76% vs 65.2%

Strong positive

Pavlidis Goal Threat14 goals in 11 matches

Strong positive

No Data Quality IssuesFull data coverage for both teams

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Both Teams to Score selection reflects Milan's tendency to concede and Benfica's potent attack led by Pavlidis. Milan's resilience is tested by defensive lapses, while Benfica's scoring consistency suggests both sides will find the net. This bet captures the tactical openness and attacking intent expected in this Europa League fixture.

Main risk

Those outcomes demonstrate staying power, but conceding three times across two matches is significant before facing an attack in its strongest spell of the season.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Milan's defensive frailties combined with Benfica's relentless scoring run make Both Teams to Score a compelling choice. Pavlidis' form and Milan's recent concessions set the stage for goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in 8 of AC Milan's last 10 matches.

Benfica has scored at least twice in each of their last 6 games.

Benfica is on a 7-match winning streak with high goal output.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last six matches, Benfica has an 80% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting a high-tempo, attacking style.
Milan's defensive record and recent matches also suggest openness.
This trend indicates a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS selection and promising an entertaining contest.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AC Milan

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for AC Milan yet.

Benfica

WWDWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 1L

27 Aug 2026A Aarhus3-1

20 Aug 2026H Aarhus3-1

13 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-1

06 Aug 2026H Heart Of Midlothian6-1

30 Jul 2026H FC ST. Gallen5-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Load more odds for this section

Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Benfica to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

AC Milan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Benfica's recent form is outstanding, winning seven consecutive matches and scoring heavily, averaging 3.6 goals per game while conceding less than one. Milan's form is less prolific but shows resilience, with goals scored in all four matches under Amorim and only one clean sheet, indicating openness at the back and supporting BTTS.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AC Milan-

Avg goals scored

Benfica3.6

AC Milan-

Avg goals conceded

Benfica0.8

AC Milan-

BTTS rate

Benfica80%

AC Milan-

Over 2.5 goals

Benfica80%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Load more odds for this section

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring ability recently, with Milan involved in eight BTTS matches out of ten and Benfica scoring at least twice in six consecutive games. This fixture's attacking dynamics and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a high likelihood of goals from both sides, reinforcing the BTTS angle.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hub related match prediction football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Load more odds for this section

Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Benfica to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

AC Milan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.53 with an implied chance of 65.2%, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating positive value. This price reflects the strong scoring trends of both teams, making the market attractive without being overly short-priced, supporting a confident selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0AC Milan wins

0Draws

1Benfica wins

28 Jul 2019AC Milan v Benfica0-1

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Load more odds for this section

Benfica to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

AC Milan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

The limited head-to-head sample between AC Milan and Benfica shows an average of just one goal per match, which is low compared to recent form. However, this small sample is less relevant than current attacking and defensive trends, which strongly favor goals from both teams in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AC Milan-

Avg corners for

Benfica5.5

AC Milan-

Avg total corners

Benfica7

AC Milan-

Avg yellow cards

Benfica1

AC Milan-

Avg shots

Benfica0

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Load more odds for this section

Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 44%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 31%

Check odds @ 2

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Benfica averages 5.5 corners per match and maintains a disciplined approach with about one yellow card per game, reflecting controlled aggression. Milan's attacking players generate significant shot volume, creating sustained pressure that should yield goal-scoring opportunities and contribute to both teams finding the net.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

AC Milan0

Played

Benfica6

AC Milan0

Avg goals for

Benfica3.2

AC Milan0

Avg goals against

Benfica1

AC Milan0

Clean sheets

Benfica1

Best odds for this sectionBenfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Load more odds for this section

Benfica to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

AC Milan to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Season-long data shows Milan scoring seven and conceding four goals in four matches, with a low clean sheet count highlighting defensive openness. Benfica's sustained high scoring and relatively solid defense, conceding four in six games, underline their attacking consistency and ability to score against varied opponents, supporting the BTTS outcome.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-AC Milan Over 2.5

80%Benfica Over 2.5

1H2H avg goals

Over the last six matches, Benfica has an 80% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting a high-tempo, attacking style. Milan's defensive record and recent matches also suggest openness. This trend indicates a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS selection and promising an entertaining contest.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

AC Milan v Benfica Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

AC Milan

Benfica

Continue the research

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

AC Milan v Benfica Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

AC Milan

Benfica

Continue the research

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step