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Aberdeen crestAberdeen
v
ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone

Premiership | Sun 11 Oct, 14:00

Aberdeen v ST Johnstone Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aberdeen and ST Johnstone meet in a Scottish Premiership clash where both teams have shown moderate attacking intent but limited goal returns recently. Each side has earned five points from their last few matches, with defensive solidity evident in low goals conceded. The contest is likely to be competitive with tactical caution, but both teams' styles suggest a steady flow of attacking plays, particularly from Aberdeen's home advantage. This sets the stage for a game where set-piece opportunities and territorial pressure could be decisive factors.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Aberdeen averages 5.6 corners per game, ST Johnstone 3.2, combining for nearly 9 per match.
  • Recent matches show both teams have a 40% rate of games going over 2.5 goals, indicating open play phases.
  • ST Johnstone's attackers like J. Lloyd generate significant shots on target, increasing attacking pressure.
  • Aberdeen's disciplined defense concedes fewer shots but maintains high corner counts through sustained possession and wing play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% chance, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, indicating clear value. Aberdeen's strong corner generation at home combined with ST Johnstone's attacking pressure, led by players like J. Lloyd, supports a high corner count. Both teams' playing styles involve wing play and set-piece creation, which historically results in frequent corners. The level at 81% reflects consistent data signals without major data limitations.

Aberdeen average corners5.6 per game
Strong positive
ST Johnstone average corners3.2 per game
Positive
Model chance vs market implied69% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Player attacking pressureHigh shots and fouls won by ST Johnstone attackers
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match where Aberdeen's home attacking approach and ST Johnstone's pressing style combine to create numerous corner situations. Both teams generate steady attacking pressure, and the corner count is likely to exceed 9.5 due to their tactical emphasis on wing play and set-piece delivery. This bet aligns well with recent form and team tendencies.

Main risk

St Johnstone's Away Struggles Remain a Concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“Aberdeen's ability to consistently win corners at home, paired with ST Johnstone's attacking intent and fouling frequency, makes Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle. The match dynamics suggest sustained pressure and set-piece battles on the flanks.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Aberdeen averages 5.6 corners per game, ST Johnstone 3.2, combining for nearly 9 per match.

Recent matches show both teams have a 40% rate of games going over 2.5 goals, indicating open play phases.

ST Johnstone's attackers like J. Lloyd generate significant shots on target, increasing attacking pressure.

Aberdeen's disciplined defense concedes fewer shots but maintains high corner counts through sustained possession and wing play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.4, indicating generally low-scoring games.
  • However, the trend panel for Over 2.5 Goals shows a 40% occurrence rate for both teams recently, suggesting phases of open play that can increase corner opportunities through transitions and attacking tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aberdeen1
Avg goals scored
ST Johnstone1
Aberdeen1
Avg goals conceded
ST Johnstone1.2
Aberdeen20%
BTTS rate
ST Johnstone80%
Aberdeen40%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Johnstone40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both Aberdeen and ST Johnstone have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate attacking openness. ST Johnstone's high BTTS rate of 80% contrasts with Aberdeen's 20%, suggesting ST Johnstone often concedes and scores, which can lead to more attacking phases and set-piece chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aberdeen

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Hibernian1-1
15 Sep 2026A Motherwell4-0
05 Sep 2026H Kilmarnock0-0
02 Sep 2026A Celtic0-3
30 Aug 2026H Rangers0-1

ST Johnstone

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Falkirk1-1
09 Sep 2026H Celtic0-1
06 Sep 2026H Hibernian2-1
02 Sep 2026A Dundee1-1
29 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +9.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
ST Johnstone to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Aberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Aberdeen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows both teams have earned 5 points in their last matches with low goals scored and conceded, reflecting tight contests. Aberdeen's corner generation remains strong at home, while ST Johnstone's attacking pressure persists, supporting a high corner count despite modest goal returns.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +11.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
ST Johnstone to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Aberdeen to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Aberdeen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). Aberdeen lead the corner sample at 5.6 per match, with ST Johnstone lower at 3.2. Aberdeen's wing-backs may be particularly influential, forcing St Johnstone's wide attackers into deeper defensive positions and potentially isolating Fowler.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Aberdeen Over 2.5
40%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
1.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.4, indicating generally low-scoring games. However, the trend panel for Over 2.5 Goals shows a 40% occurrence rate for both teams recently, suggesting phases of open play that can increase corner opportunities through transitions and attacking tempo.

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