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Aalesund crestAalesund
v
Tromso crestTromso

Eliteserien | Sun 02 Aug, 16:00

Aalesund v Tromso Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 17:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aalesund face Tromso in Eliteserien on Sun 02 Aug, 16:00. Tromso’s recent scoring burst of eight goals in two league matches contrasts sharply with Aalesund’s ongoing defensive struggles, having conceded in all 14 league games. Aalesund’s winless recent run contrasts with Tromso’s stronger form, indicating an away victory likelihood.

BT4Y match pick

Tromso to win and both teams to score

  • At 5/2, Tromso to win and both teams to score implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Aalesund’s attack can net, but defensive lapses will allow Tromso to dominate the scoreline.
  • Tromso have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aalesund.
  • Aalesund sit 15 in the table, while Tromso sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Tromso to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Tromso have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aalesund. Aalesund’s attack can net, but defensive lapses will allow Tromso to dominate the scoreline.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Neutral
Tromso have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Aalesund sit 15 in the table, while Tromso sit 3.Visible data support
Positive
Aalesund’s attack can net, but defensive lapses will allow.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aalesund Win is the preferred angle because aalesund’s attack can net, but defensive lapses will allow Tromso to dominate the scoreline. Tromso have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aalesund. Aalesund carry the stronger scoring threat, but Tromso must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Aalesund carry the stronger scoring threat, but Tromso must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Tromso to win and both teams to score evidence

Aalesund’s attack can net, but defensive lapses will allow Tromso to dominate the scoreline.

Tromso have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Aalesund.

Tromso have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Aalesund Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aalesund sit 15 in the table, while Tromso sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Tromso to win and both teams to score notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aalesund1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Tromso1.8
    Aalesund2.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Tromso1.4
    Aalesund100%
    BTTS rate
    Tromso40%
    Aalesund60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Tromso60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Aalesund v Tromsocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Aalesund to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aalesund6
    Avg corners for
    Tromso4.2
    Aalesund13
    Avg total corners
    Tromso9
    Aalesund1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Tromso0.8
    Aalesund15.6
    Avg shots
    Tromso13.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +3.8 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aalesund

    DLDDD
    Last 50W 4D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    26 Jul 2026H Viking1-1
    16 Jul 2026A Valerenga1-6
    11 Jul 2026H Molde2-2
    29 May 2026H Ham-Kam2-2
    25 May 2026A Tromso1-1

    Tromso

    WWDDL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    18 Jul 2026A Ham-Kam4-1
    11 Jul 2026H Valerenga4-0
    29 May 2026A KFUM Oslo0-0
    25 May 2026H Aalesund1-1
    16 May 2026A Bodo/Glimt0-5
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Aalesund wins
    3Draws
    2Tromso wins
    25 May 2026Tromso v Aalesund1-1
    08 Mar 2025Aalesund v Tromso1-0
    08 Oct 2023Tromso v Aalesund1-2
    11 Jun 2023Aalesund v Tromso2-3
    13 Nov 2022Tromso v Aalesund2-2
    18 Apr 2022Aalesund v Tromso2-2
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aalesund to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Eliteserien

    Aalesund17
    Played
    Tromso17
    Aalesund1.6
    Avg goals for
    Tromso2
    Aalesund2.4
    Avg goals against
    Tromso1.2
    Aalesund0
    Clean sheets
    Tromso8
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Season data supports Aalesund to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Tromso3417104314
    15Aalesund1517296-14
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Aalesund Over 2.5
    60%Tromso Over 2.5
    3.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aalesund sit at 60% and Tromso sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Aalesund v Tromso prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

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