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Aalesund crestAalesund
v
Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien | Sun 11 Oct, 16:00

Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08 FF Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aalesund hosts Sarpsborg 08 FF in an Eliteserien clash where Aalesund seeks to capitalize on recent momentum and home advantage. Despite sitting 14th, Aalesund has shown attacking intent with a high over 2.5 goals rate and a solid points haul in recent matches. Sarpsborg 08 FF, positioned 9th, have struggled for consistency and goal production on the road. Tactical emphasis will likely be on Aalesund's forward pressure and exploiting Sarpsborg's defensive vulnerabilities, making this a contest where home and attacking rhythm could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Aalesund to Win

  • Aalesund holds a 66.9% to win, offering strong value at 2.38 .
  • Recent form favors Aalesund with 7 points gained versus Sarpsborg's 3 in their last five matches.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates (80%), indicating open play and scoring opportunities.
  • Aalesund averages 17.8 shots and 6 corners per game, showing attacking pressure.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF's lower yellow card average (0.8) suggests disciplined defense but limited offensive threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Aalesund to win with a 66.9% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking volume, and home advantage. Aalesund's high shot and goal rates, combined with Sarpsborg's defensive struggles and lower scoring output, underpin this . The price offers positive value, as the implied chance is only 42%, making the home win an attractive bet. No data limitations affect this view, and the model's is robust at 66%.

Model Win Probability66.9%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsAalesund 7, Sarpsborg 3
Positive
Average Shots per GameAalesund 17.8, Sarpsborg 14.2
Positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Aalesund's recent attacking form and home pressure make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their higher shot volume and goal threat contrast with Sarpsborg 08 FF's inconsistent away performances, supporting a confident home win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Aalesund's offensive intensity and home advantage create a compelling case for victory, especially given Sarpsborg's struggles to convert chances on the road. This match should favor the hosts tactically and statistically.”

Key Data Signals

Aalesund to Win evidence

Aalesund holds a 66.9% to win, offering strong value at 2.38 .

Recent form favors Aalesund with 7 points gained versus Sarpsborg's 3 in their last five matches.

Both teams have high BTTS rates (80%), indicating open play and scoring opportunities.

Aalesund averages 17.8 shots and 6 corners per game, showing attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Aalesund to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.1, supporting a trend toward open games with multiple goals.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates further suggest this fixture is likely to produce a lively, goal-rich encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aalesund2.2
Avg goals scored
Sarpsborg 08 FF1
Aalesund2
Avg goals conceded
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Aalesund80%
BTTS rate
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
Aalesund80%
Over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 FF60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, and Aalesund's 80% over 2.5 goals rate indicates a high likelihood of an open, attacking game. Sarpsborg's 60% over 2.5 rate supports the potential for multiple goals, making goal markets attractive in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
The 57% for Aalesund to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Aalesund have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aalesund

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
19 Sep 2026A Molde2-1
13 Sep 2026A KFUM Oslo1-2
04 Sep 2026H Start2-0
30 Aug 2026A Viking1-2
16 Aug 2026H Valerenga5-5

Sarpsborg 08 FF

LDDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
18 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo1-3
13 Sep 2026A Fredrikstad1-1
06 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-2
30 Aug 2026A Tromso0-0
16 Aug 2026H Sandefjord1-2
Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Aalesund's recent form shows 7 points gained in their last five matches, reflecting improved attacking output and resilience. Sarpsborg 08 FF's 3 points in the same period highlight struggles to maintain consistency, especially away from home, reinforcing Aalesund's advantage going into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Aalesund Over 2.5
60%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.1, supporting a trend toward open games with multiple goals. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates further suggest this fixture is likely to produce a lively, goal-rich encounter.

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