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Can Roma turn home comfort into a season-saving response against Pisa? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Roma are unbeaten in eight home league games and have a strong defensive record at the Olimpico. Pisa are bottom of the table and have failed to score in their last four away league matches, losing their last three on the road. Expect home dominance and a clean sheet.
Read Rationale ▾
Pisa average just 0.7 goals per game and are struggling for form, failing to find the net in four consecutive away trips. Roma average 1.5+ goals at home and should find enough attacking craft through Malen and Soulé to secure a comfortable two-goal victory against the league’s bottom side.
Roma host Pisa at the Olimpico with top-four hopes under strain and a clear chance to reset against a side fighting to stay alive.
Roma vs Pisa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Roma’s unbeaten home record of eight matches gives them a clear edge over bottom-side Pisa who have lost three away.
Pisa’s failure to score in four away games suggests a lower total, while Roma average over 1.5 goals at home.
Roma’s dominance against a side averaging just 0.7 goals suggests a controlled home win is the most likely scenario.
Pisa’s aerial strength of 19.7 wins per match remains their best route to disrupt Roma’s technical control at the Olimpico.
Match Overview
- Home Ground, Big Opportunity: Roma have won 10 of 15 Serie A home matches and are unbeaten in their last eight home league games, which gives this fixture a very clear emotional and tactical backdrop.
- Pisa’s Away Problem: Pisa have failed to score in their last four away league matches and have lost their last three on the road, a brutal run for a team already sitting bottom.
- Control v Survival: Roma average 56% possession, 483.86 passes per game and 52.29 dangerous attacks, while Pisa average just 40% possession and only 0.7 goals per game across all competitions.
Possession Control: Average Passes per Match
Roma’s technical identity involves high volume passing to control territory, while Pisa operate with much lower retention.
Roma average 56% possession and use heavy passing volume to pin opponents back at the Olimpico.
Pisa average just 40% possession, reflecting a side that spends long stretches clear of the ball.
Defensive Metrics: League Goals Conceded
A sharp contrast in box security shows why one side is fighting for top four and the other for survival.
Despite recent instability, Roma’s overall seasonal record remains one of the stronger units in the top half.
Pisa have struggled significantly to protect their box, conceding almost double the volume of the hosts.
Match Preview
Roma do not need a reminder of what is at stake here. They head into this Friday night fixture at the Stadio Olimpico in sixth place on 54 points, four behind the top four, with the margin for error now looking painfully thin.
The recent mood is edgy. Roma have lost three of their last four Serie A matches and were hit for five by Inter last time out, so this is a chance to steady the season and reassert control at 19:45 on home turf.
Pisa arrive bottom of the table on 18 points and staring hard at trouble. They have lost five of their last six league matches, but that does not make them harmless. It just makes Roma’s job simple in theory and dangerous in practice if their standards slip.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Roma absentees:Lorenzo Pellegrini — unknown injury
Wesley — hamstring muscle injury
Paulo Dybala — knee surgery
Artem Dovbyk — hamstring injury
Pisa absentees:
No confirmed absences are listed here.
Probable Roma lineup
Svilar; Ghilardi, Ndicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, Pisilli, Tsimikas; Soule, Baldanzi; Malen
Probable Pisa lineup
Semper; Calabresi, Caracciolo, Canestrelli; Leris, Hojholt, Akinsanmiro, Aebischer, Angori; Tramoni; Durosinmi
Roma lose a chunk of attacking invention without Pellegrini and Dybala, while Dovbyk being out leaves more scoring weight on Donyell Malen.
Wesley’s absence also matters because Roma like to attack with width and pressure the right side, so that flank loses some thrust.
Pisa’s likely back three points to a compact, reactive approach, with bodies kept central and the wing areas asked to do heavy running.
The shape suggests Oscar Hiljemark will look to crowd the middle, protect the box and wait for moments to go long into advanced areas.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Roma | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 20th |
| Points | 54 | 18 |
| Goals scored | 42 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 28 | 55 |
| Shots per game | 13.1 | 9.7 |
| Possession | 56.1% | 39.7% |
| Pass accuracy | 83.2% | 76.4% |
| Aerials won | 16.9 | 19.7 |
Tactical Battle
Roma should set the pitch
Roma’s identity is clear. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side want to control the game in the opposition half, move the ball with width, attack down the right and punch passes through the lines when spaces open.
That should define the pattern from the first whistle. Roma are averaging 56% possession and nearly 484 passes per game, while Pisa sit at 40% possession and just 325.45 passes. One side wants to install itself on the front foot. The other is used to living without the ball.
That matters because Pisa are weak at keeping possession. If Roma press the second ball well and keep Pisa penned in, the visitors could spend long stretches clearing rather than building.
Through balls, movement and weak points
Roma’s most obvious route is central incision. They are strong at creating chances with through balls, and Pisa are weak at defending against through-ball attacks.
That is a dangerous mix for the away side. Matías Soulé brings craft and carries 6 goals and 4 assists, while Malen has scored 7 in limited league minutes and averages a huge 4.2 shots per game. If Roma can slide runners beyond Pisa’s line instead of settling for hopeful delivery, the home side can make this uncomfortable quickly.
There is also a second layer to it. Pisa are weak at defending against skilful players and weak at defending long shots, so Roma do not need every attack to be perfect. They can probe, combine and shoot with purpose around the edge of the area.
Where Pisa can bite back
Pisa are limited, but not empty. Their style leans on long balls, width, crosses and a heavy shot volume when the game allows it. They also win plenty in the air, which gives them a route up the pitch even when the passing game is under strain.Roma need to take that seriously because one of their own weaknesses is defending counter attacks. If Pisa can survive the first wave and then release runners quickly into wide spaces, there is a path to stress the home side.
That makes the Roma rest defence important. If the wing-backs push high and the midfield gets stretched, Tramoni and Durosinmi could find moments to turn pressure into territory.
Set pieces and second phases
This is another area loaded with meaning. Pisa are weak at defending set pieces and weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Roma do not need to overcomplicate the match if they can keep forcing dead-ball situations around the box.
At the same time, Pisa’s aerial strength means first contact alone might not decide those moments. Roma need clean delivery, aggressive movement and quick reactions around second balls.
If Cristante, Ndicka and Hermoso keep the pressure alive after the first clearance, Roma can turn set plays into sustained attacks. Against a side that has already conceded 55 league goals, repeated pressure can become suffocating.
Key Moments to Watch
- Roma’s first spell of pressure: The hosts should dominate territory early, and the opening 20 minutes will tell you whether Pisa are coping or simply surviving.
- Malen’s shot volume: Donyell Malen averages 4.2 shots per game, so if he starts finding pockets around the box, Pisa’s back line could be dragged into a long night.
- Soulé between the lines: With 6 goals and 4 assists, Matías Soulé looks like Roma’s sharpest creative spark in the final third.
- Pisa’s aerial resistance: Pisa average 19.7 aerials won, a huge number, so they can still disrupt rhythm even if Roma control the ball.
- Away attacking drought: Pisa have not scored in their last four away league games, and if that run continues deep into the second half, the margin for them becomes tiny.
- Discipline in key zones: Pisa are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and Roma have enough technical quality to punish careless defending around the box.
Game-State Scenarios
Roma’s biggest risk is impatience. If they push too hard, too early, and leave the counter exposed, they can turn a controlled home fixture into a frantic one.
That danger is real because Roma have shipped 12 goals in five league games since the start of March, and their recent form has been full of instability. One sloppy transition, one cheap turnover, one set-piece lapse, and the anxiety in the stadium rises immediately.
For Pisa, the risk is obvious and brutal. If they cannot hold the ball, cannot defend through balls and cannot survive repeated pressure in wide and central areas, the match starts running away from them. Their away run, their scoring drought and their defensive record all point to a side that needs everything to go right just to keep the contest alive.
This is Roma’s chance to drag the season back into shape. The pressure is heavy, the context is unforgiving, and the opportunity is there in plain sight.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS (No)
This market requires the selected team to win the match while keeping a clean sheet. It is a popular way to find better price for a heavy favourite when the opponent has a poor scoring record.
Pros: Higher price than a standard win.
Cons: A single consolation goal ruins the bet even if the team wins 4-1.
Correct Score
A high-risk, high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline of the match after 90 minutes. It requires precision regarding both attacking efficiency and defensive stability.
Pros: Significant returns on small stakes.
Cons: Extremely volatile; one late goal can settle the outcome.
🎯 Roma to Win to Nil Rationale
Roma’s status as heavy favourites at the Stadio Olimpico is underpinned by a formidable home record. They remain unbeaten in their last eight league outings on home soil, winning 10 of their 15 matches at the Olimpico this season. This home strength provides a stable foundation for a side needing to bounce back from recent instability. The tactical mismatch is most evident when examining the goalscoring patterns of the visitors. Pisa have failed to score in their last four away league matches and have lost three consecutive games on the road, highlighting a severe lack of attacking threat when playing away from home.
Roma average 56% possession and should dictate the tempo against a side that averages only 40% and struggles to maintain control of the ball. With Pisa averaging just 0.7 goals per game across all competitions, the likelihood of the visitors breaching a Roma defence that has conceded significantly fewer goals this season is low. The hosts’ ability to dominate territory and restrict Pisa to cleared balls rather than structured build-up play further supports the clean-sheet win.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Roma are unbeaten in their last 8 home league games.
- Pisa have failed to score in their last 4 away league matches.
- Roma average 56% possession compared to Pisa’s 40%.
Risk Factor: Roma have conceded 12 goals in five matches since March, suggesting moments of defensive lapse are possible if they lose focus.
🎯 Roma 2-0 Pisa Rationale
A 2-0 scoreline aligns with the statistical profiles of both teams. Roma average 1.5+ goals at home, and while they are missing key creators like Dybala and Pellegrini, the presence of Donyell Malen and Matías Soulé ensures a high volume of pressure. Malen averages 4.2 shots per game, and Soulé has already contributed 6 goals and 4 assists this term. Against a Pisa side that has conceded 55 league goals—the highest in the division—Roma have ample opportunity to find the net multiple times through central incision and through-ball attacks.
Defensively, Roma should remain untroubled by an attack that has been dormant on the road for over a month. Pisa’s reliance on long balls and aerial duels may disrupt Roma’s rhythm, but it rarely translates into high-quality scoring chances, as evidenced by their poor away form. A controlled performance where Roma score once in each half or secure a two-goal cushion before retreating into a defensive shape to protect the clean sheet fits the game-state expectations perfectly.
Risk Factor: Pisa’s aerial strength (19.7 wins per match) could help them defend set-pieces effectively, potentially keeping the score lower than expected.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Roma are strong at central incision. Malen and Soulé thrive on moving into space behind defensive lines.
Pisa are statistically weak at defending runners between the lines, conceding 55 goals this season.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does “Win to Nil” mean in football betting?
What does Win to Nil mean?
Win to Nil means you are betting on a specific team to win the match while also keeping a clean sheet. For the bet to be successful, your chosen team must win and the opposition must score zero goals.
⊕ Why is Roma the favourite in this match?
Why is Roma favoured against Pisa?
Roma are 6th in the table and unbeaten in eight home league games, while Pisa sit bottom of the league with five losses in their last six matches. The statistical gap in points, goals scored, and home/away form makes Roma the clear authority.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
How do Correct Score bets work?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regular time. It is a more difficult market to predict than the match result, which is why it typically offers higher odds.
⊕ Can Pisa score against Roma’s defence?
Will Pisa score against Roma?
Pisa have failed to score in their last four away league games and average just 0.7 goals per match across all competitions. While Roma have been unstable recently, Pisa’s offensive record away from home is currently poor.
⊕ What is the significance of the 2-0 scoreline?
Why is 2-0 a plausible scoreline?
Roma average over 1.5 goals at home and Pisa concede nearly 2.0 goals per game on average. Given Pisa’s inability to score away, a two-goal victory for the hosts is a realistic projection based on seasonal averages.
⊕ Who are the key players for Roma with Dybala out?
Who will lead Roma’s attack?
Donyell Malen and Matías Soulé are the primary attacking threats, with Malen averaging 4.2 shots per game and Soulé contributing 10 goal involvements this season. They will be responsible for breaking down Pisa’s compact defence.
⊕ What is a “tactical mismatch” in this game?
What is the main tactical mismatch?
Roma’s strength in through-ball attacks directly targets Pisa’s weakness in defending runners between the lines. This specific vulnerability in the Pisa back line is likely to be exploited by Roma’s skilful forward players.
⊕ How important is possession in this fixture?
Will possession decide the match?
Roma average 56% possession while Pisa average only 40%, meaning the home side will dictate where the game is played. High possession allows Roma to pin Pisa in their own half and force errors from a side weak at keeping the ball.
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