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Will Roma’s control and creativity break Genoa’s deep, wide threat at the Stadio Olimpico? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Roma’s league position (4th) compared to Genoa’s (17th) provides a clear starting point for this selection. The tactical setup for the hosts focuses on high possession and controlling the game in the final third, which matches up well against a Genoa side that struggles to keep the ball. History is also heavily on Roma's side, as they are unbeaten in 17 straight home games against this opponent and have won 70% of the last ten meetings. While Genoa are a threat on the break, Roma’s technical superiority should secure the points.
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This scoreline accounts for Roma’s typical dominance at home and Genoa’s surprising scoring record on the road. Genoa have scored in all seven of their away league matches this season, suggesting they are highly likely to find the net at the Olimpico, especially given Roma's weakness against counter-attacks. However, Roma create a high volume of chances (13.3 shots per game) and should find the two goals needed to secure the win, similar to recent results where they have dominated territory but remained defensively honest.
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Roma VS Genoa Predictions and Best Bets
Roma vs Genoa — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Roma’s dominance at the Stadio Olimpico against Genoa is reflected in the pricing, where the home win is the primary outcome.
Roma’s high shot volume and Genoa’s away scoring record suggest a competitive match with goals on both sides.
While Roma matches often stay under 2.5 goals, Genoa’s away form ensures they remain a live threat to score.
Dybala leads Roma’s offensive threat with high shot volume and creative responsibility in the final third.
- Home trend that sets the backdrop: Roma’s most recent record of 17 consecutive home Serie A matches against Genoa contains no losses, shaping confidence and expectations at the Olimpico.
- Control vs containment in the league: Roma average 57.9% possession and 13.3 shots per game, while Genoa average 46.7% possession and 11.5 shots, pointing to a territory battle.
- Head-to-head context with real weight: Roma have secured victory 24 times out of 35 head-to-head matches against Genoa, and haven’t lost 23 of the most recent 25 league clashes.
Technical Control: Possession and Passing
Roma’s approach revolves around sustained pressure and efficient ball movement compared to Genoa’s more direct style.
Roma’s high possession rate allows them to dictate the game’s rhythm and limit opposition opportunities.
Consistent accuracy in possession helps Roma find pockets of space against structured defensive units.
Attacking Volume: Shot Comparison
A comparison of the offensive frequency between the two sides as they look to break the deadlock.
The hosts generate high shot volume, though they have been noted as needing to improve their conversion efficiency.
Despite lower possession, Genoa maintain a respectable shot average through direct play and set-piece opportunities.
Roma and Genoa are scheduled to meet at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A round 17, with plenty riding on rhythm as much as points. The table has Roma on 30 points from 16 matches in fourth, while Genoa sit 17th on 14 points from the same number of games. That alone sets the tone: one side looking up and trying to keep pace, the other looking over their shoulder and trying to turn a difficult night into something solid.
Roma arrive off a run that’s felt stop-start. There have been wins — including 1-0 at home to Como — but also defeats such as 2-1 away to Juventus and 1-0 away to Cagliari. Genoa’s recent spell has had its own bumps, with defeats at home to Inter (1-2) and away to Atalanta in Coppa Italia (4-0), but they’ve also found ways to land punches, like the 2-1 away win at Udinese and the 3-3 draw away at Cagliari.
There’s also recent history between these two that carries weight. The most recent meeting listed is a 3-1 Roma win on 17 January 2025, and Roma have been on the right side of several tight scorelines against Genoa in recent seasons. For Genoa, the job is obvious: make this match uncomfortable, keep it alive, and see if the night brings a moment of chaos they can ride.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Roma’s predicted line-up is set in a 3-4-2-1: Mile Svilar; Gianluca Mancini, Jan Ziółkowski, Devyne Rensch; Zeki Çelik, Bryan Cristante, Manu Koné, Wesley; Matías Soulé, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Paulo Dybala.
That selection hints at a very specific attacking idea. Dybala and Soulé are positioned as the creative pair behind the lone striker, with Pellegrini also included in that attacking band. It’s a set-up designed to find pockets between the lines, then slip passes into runners or work shooting angles around the box. The wing roles matter too. With Çelik and Wesley in the midfield line, Roma can create width without losing central numbers, and that can be crucial if Genoa sink into their own half.
The injury and availability notes include E. Bove (heart problems), O. N’Dicka (called up to national team), and N. El Aynaoui (called up to national team). There’s also a mention of M. Hermoso Canseco (muscle fatigue). Separately, Artem Dovbyk is listed as doubtful with a hip issue, with Evan N’Dicka and Neil El Aynaoui listed as out due to international duty, and Leon Bailey out with a hamstring issue. All of that points towards a Roma side having to be precise with their midfield balance and careful about how they manage defensive transitions.
Genoa’s predicted line-up is a 3-5-2: Daniele Sommariva; Alessandro Marcandalli, Sebastian Otoa, Johan Vásquez; Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Morten Frendrup, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Mikael Ellertsson, Aarón Martín; Vítinha, Lorenzo Colombo.
If that’s the XI, it screams structure first. A back three, a midfield five, and a front two who can run channels and jump on mistakes. The wing roles are again huge: Norton-Cuffy and Martín look like the players tasked with getting Genoa up the pitch, but also with surviving long spells of defending if Roma settle into their possession game.
There’s also a notable team-news list for Genoa: Junior Messias, Jean Onana, Albert Grønbæk, Maxwel Cornet and Nicola Leali all appear as unavailable in one form or another, with Benjamin Siegrist listed as doubtful. Even without straying beyond what’s written, it reads like a side that may need to lean hard on continuity in shape and workload.
How the Match Could Be Played
Roma’s listed approach gives a strong clue to the opening pattern: possession football, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, and attacking down the right, alongside playing the offside trap and an aggressive edge. If they set up as expected, the first phase likely revolves around the back three building with patience, then using Cristante and Koné to connect into the two creators. That’s where the match becomes a problem-solving exercise: can Roma find Dybala and Soulé in spaces where they can turn and face Genoa’s back line?
Genoa’s own style points to a different kind of game. They’re described as playing with width, using long balls, attempting crosses often, and operating in their own half, with an aggressive streak and a consistent first eleven. That’s a neat explanation of how they might accept being without the ball for long spells but still carry a threat: win it, move it wide, and deliver early or switch play quickly to create crossing opportunities.
The interesting tactical friction sits in the weaknesses. Roma are listed as weak at finishing scoring chances and very weak at defending counter attacks. That can create a very specific anxiety: you can do a lot right, but if you don’t score, you’re always one loose pass away from conceding something ugly. Genoa, meanwhile, are listed as weak at keeping possession, weak at defending against through ball attacks, very weak at defending against attacks down the wings, and weak at avoiding individual errors, with protecting the lead also marked very weak.
Put those together and the zones start to light up. Roma’s right-sided emphasis could pull Genoa’s wing and outside centre-back into repeat defending, and if that side gets stretched, the through ball becomes a weapon — not as a magic trick, but as a simple “run beyond, pass between” pattern that forces split-second decisions. If Genoa’s block is a half-step late, that’s when Dybala and Soulé can slide runners through.
On the other side of the chessboard, Genoa’s best route looks like the moment Roma lose the ball in a risky position. With Roma flagged as vulnerable to counter attacks, Genoa don’t necessarily need long spells on the ball. A direct ball into Vítinha or Colombo, a quick lay-off, and then width and crossing to turn a transition into a chance. If Malinovskyi can pick up second balls or collect a loose clearance, Genoa can keep the pressure on long enough to force a corner, a cross, or a scramble.
Set pieces matter here as well, because Genoa’s strengths include attacking set pieces and shooting from direct free kicks, while Roma are listed as strong defending set pieces and very strong at protecting the lead. That clash can decide whether Genoa’s “moments” actually become real danger or just hopeful deliveries Roma handle.
Tempo-wise, this could be a match of waves. Roma pushing higher and higher, Genoa defending deeper and deeper, then sudden snaps of pace when the ball turns over. The longer it stays close, the more every Roma attack needs to end with either a shot or a safe reset — because giving Genoa a runway into space is exactly what Roma will want to avoid.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Roma’s Serie A numbers paint a side that should have the ball and territory more often than not. Across 16 league matches, Roma have 57.9% possession and an 83.6% pass success rate, alongside 13.3 shots per game. That combination suggests sustained control and repeated entries into the final third, which fits their stated aim of controlling matches in the opposition’s half.
The goals column adds context to the finishing question. Roma have scored 17 in 16 Serie A matches, and the standings list them with 17 goals for and 10 against. That’s a healthy defensive baseline on paper, but paired with “finishing scoring chances” flagged as a weakness, it hints at a team that might be creating enough to score more often — and that matters if they end up having to chase an opener rather than strolling into it.
Genoa’s league profile aligns with their described approach. They sit at 46.7% possession with a 78.3% pass success rate, taking 11.5 shots per game and scoring 16 goals in 16 matches. The standings list them with 16 for and 24 against. In other words, Genoa can create chances — not always through long passing sequences, but through direct play and width — yet they’ve also been conceding at a rate that leaves them needing strong spells of concentration.
There are also matchup-specific indicators in the trends and head-to-head notes. Roma’s most recent record of 17 consecutive home games against Genoa in Serie A contains no losses, and Roma haven’t suffered a loss to Genoa in 23 of their most recent 25 clashes in the league. That doesn’t decide the next 90 minutes, but it does frame the psychological landscape: Roma at home with a long history of managing this opponent, Genoa arriving knowing they need to be more than merely tidy.
One more stat that fits the likely pattern: under 2.5 goals were scored in 67% of Roma’s last six Serie A matches. That suggests Roma games have often been tight and controlled rather than wild — which could suit Roma if they get ahead, and could suit Genoa if they can keep it level and drag the match into a tense final stretch.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing moment is whether Roma’s creators can receive cleanly between Genoa’s lines. If Dybala and Soulé can turn and face forward, Roma can threaten with through balls and sharp combinations. If Genoa keep them with backs to goal, Roma risk becoming predictable: lots of possession, lots of crosses, and not enough clear chances.
The second is the wing battle. Genoa are listed as very weak at defending attacks down the wings, while Roma’s style leans towards right-sided attacks. If Roma can overload that flank — pulling a wing-back out, dragging a wide centre-back, and then slipping a runner into the channel — Genoa’s defensive shape can start to creak. That’s where individual errors creep in, and Genoa are flagged as weak at avoiding them.
For Genoa, the key moment is transition. Roma are listed as very weak at defending counter attacks, and Genoa are built to play quickly into wide areas and deliver. If Vítinha and Colombo can run channels and force Roma’s defenders to turn, Genoa’s crossing and set-piece strengths come into play. Even one sustained break can change the mood inside the stadium.
Set pieces are another flashpoint. Genoa’s strength attacking set pieces and direct free kicks meets Roma’s strong set-piece defending. If Genoa win a couple of free kicks in range or a run of corners, it becomes a proper test of nerve and organisation.
What could go wrong with this read? Football’s margins don’t care about plans. Roma can control territory and still get stuck if their finishing doesn’t match their build-up, especially if Genoa stay compact and force attacks into crowded areas. And if Roma over-commit chasing the breakthrough, the very thing they’re flagged as vulnerable to — counter attacks — can suddenly become the match’s loudest theme.
Best Bet for Roma vs Genoa
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Roma to win
The case for a home victory is built on a formidable historical record and the current disparity in league standing. Roma occupy fourth place with 30 points, while Genoa are languishing in 17th with just 14. Historically, the Stadio Olimpico has been a fortress in this fixture; the hosts are unbeaten in their last 17 consecutive home league games against Genoa. In a broader context, they have avoided defeat in 23 of the most recent 25 league meetings between the two sides. This dominance is reinforced by their tactical profile, which emphasizes controlling the game in the opposition’s half through high possession (57.9%) and an 83.6% pass success rate.
While Genoa have shown they can be a nuisance—notably scoring in all seven of their away league matches this season—their defensive frailties are a significant concern. They have conceded 24 goals in 16 matches and are flagged for being weak at avoiding individual errors and defending against through-ball attacks. This plays directly into the hands of Roma’s creative hub, where Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé are tasked with operating between the lines to slide passes into runners. Genoa’s tendency to defend deep and operate in their own half often invites the kind of sustained pressure that Roma, who average over 13 shots per game, are well-equipped to exploit.
Furthermore, Genoa’s squad depth is being tested by several absences, including Junior Messias and Nicola Leali. Although Roma have their own availability issues with Evan N’Dicka and potentially Artem Dovbyk, their predicted 3-4-2-1 formation offers enough technical quality in the final third to break down a low block. Given that Roma have won 10 of their 16 matches this season and possess a 70% win rate in the last 10 encounters with this opponent, the statistical and tactical weight leans heavily toward a home win.
What could go wrong
Roma’s primary vulnerability lies in their transition defense, where they are described as very weak at defending counter-attacks. If Genoa can capitalize on a loose pass and use their width to deliver crosses for Lorenzo Colombo or Vítinha, they could snatch an early lead. Additionally, Roma have been flagged for failing to finish scoring chances efficiently, meaning a lack of clinical edge could allow a resilient Genoa to hang on for a frustrating draw.
Correct score lean
Roma 2-1 Genoa
Rationale
A 2-1 scoreline balances Roma’s offensive pressure with Genoa’s consistent ability to find the net on their travels. While Roma have a strong defensive baseline at home, Genoa have managed to score in every single one of their seven away league fixtures this season. Roma’s struggle with defending counter-attacks suggests they may concede a goal, particularly as Genoa are strong at attacking set pieces. However, Roma’s superior possession and creative quality should see them overcome their finishing issues to score twice, mirroring their recent 2-1 victory over Udinese and fitting the general trend of competitive but successful outcomes for the home side.
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