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Parma vs Genoa: Low-Scoring Strugglers Search for First Serie A Win. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Both teams have struggled to convert chances into goals, with only two goals each in four league games. Parma's loss of a key striker and Genoa's possession dominance failing to produce shots on target suggest a low-scoring match is most likely.
A 1-1 draw fits both teams' low scoring and defensive vulnerabilities, with Parma scoring in consecutive matches and Genoa conceding regularly but still able to score.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Parma v Genoa.
Parma and Genoa meet at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Sunday with the same immediate problem: four Serie A matches, one point and only two goals scored.
Parma vs Genoa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Parma and Genoa arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Parma and Genoa show comparable scoring patterns, keeping goals at both ends firmly possible.
Parma and Genoa look closely matched defensively, pointing towards a tight scoreline.
Parma and Genoa show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.
Three Punchy Stats
- Parma have scored two goals and conceded six across their opening four Serie A matches, but both goals have arrived in their last two league games.
- Genoa have also scored only twice in four league matches, while conceding eight — two more than Parma over the same period.
- Across their last 10 league games, Parma and Genoa have averaged only 0.7 and 0.5 goals respectively despite producing 9.0 and 10.3 attempts per match, a clear sign that converting pressure into goals has been the central problem for both.
Scoring Consistency
Recent attacking records for Parma and Genoa are shown below.
Defensive Stability
Recent defensive records for Parma and Genoa are shown below.
Their routes to that modest return have differed slightly. Parma have shown signs of improvement across their last two league outings, drawing 1-1 with Monza before losing 2-1 at Como, while Genoa arrive after a 1-1 draw against Frosinone and a 1-0 Coppa Italia victory over Sudtirol.
Yet neither side has done enough in the league to disguise the main issue. Goals have been scarce, and Genoa have coupled that attacking shortage with a particularly costly defensive record.
Parma's improvement needs a bigger reward
Carlos Cuesta's side opened their league campaign with successive scoreless defeats, losing 1-0 to Cagliari and 2-0 against Juventus. A 2-0 cup defeat by Cremonese extended that barren sequence before Parma finally found the net against Monza.
David Romero then scored in the 2-1 defeat at Como, meaning Parma have now struck in consecutive Serie A matches after failing to score in their first two.
That is progress, albeit from a low base. Simone Lontani and Romero are the only Parma players to have scored through four league games, highlighting the challenge of replacing the attacking output lost when last season's nine-goal forward Mateo Pellegrino moved to Fiorentina.
The broader numbers underline the same concern. Across Parma's last 10 league games, they have averaged nine attempts but only 2.6 shots on target and 0.7 goals. They are creating a reasonable quantity of shots without turning enough of them into genuine attacking reward.
Genoa's problem exists at both ends
Genoa's league return is even more uncomfortable defensively. Their opening four matches have produced two goals scored and eight conceded, including a damaging 4-1 loss to Como.
Daniele De Rossi's side have now gone nine Serie A matches without a victory, recording three draws and six defeats since their 2-1 win over Pisa. Their last 10 league games offer a useful explanation: Genoa have averaged 10.3 attempts but only 2.5 efforts on target and 0.5 goals.
Possession has not solved that problem either. Their 50.2% average across those matches is considerably higher than Parma's 42.8%, yet Genoa's attacking return is lower. Having more of the ball has not translated into enough accurate shooting or goals.
At the other end, they have conceded 1.4 goals per game across that 10-match sample from 14.3 opposition attempts and 4.4 shots on target.
Vasquez absence removes an unlikely source of goals
Johan Vasquez has scored against Frosinone and supplied the winner against Sudtirol, but suspension removes him from Sunday's game after two yellow cards last weekend.
That matters because Genoa's league goals have been spread remarkably thinly. Milutin Osmajic, who scored in the 4-1 defeat by Como, is their only other league scorer this season.
Elias Havel and Lorenzo Venturino are also unavailable through ankle and knee injuries respectively. Parma's only stated absentee is Hans Nicolussi Caviglia with a groin problem.
Recent history favours the visitors: Genoa are unbeaten in the last four meetings between the clubs, while the previous encounter at the Tardini finished 0-0. Given the current scoring records, another match shaped by attacking efficiency rather than attacking volume would hardly be surprising.
📊 Market Explainer
Total Goals Market
Selection: Under 2.5 Goals. This market is settled by the combined number of goals in normal time. The selected line determines how many goals are needed for the bet to win.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Parma vs Genoa 1-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/2
Neither Parma nor Genoa has demonstrated consistent finishing precision across the opening weeks of the Serie A season, making a low-scoring outcome at the Stadio Ennio Tardini the most defensible scenario. Both clubs enter this fixture having scored just twice across four league games, collecting a single point each while searching for a first league win.
Parma’s summer departure of nine-goal striker Mateo Pellegrino has left an evident void, with Carlos Cuesta’s side averaging only 2.6 shots on target from 9.0 attempts per match across their last 10 league outings. Genoa display a similar conversion issue despite maintaining a higher possession average of 50.2% across their past 10 league fixtures. Daniele De Rossi’s team average 10.3 attempts per match but manage just 2.5 efforts on target and 0.5 goals. Higher ball possession has not translated into accurate shooting or regular goalscoring.
The principal threat to an Under 2.5 selection lies in Genoa’s defensive vulnerability, having conceded eight times in four league matches, including four goals against Como. However, Genoa’s key goal threat Johan Vasquez—who scored against Frosinone and netted the winner against Sudtirol—is suspended after picking up two yellow cards. With Elias Havel and Lorenzo Venturino also absent, Genoa lack proven options to exploit Parma’s backline. Considering the previous league encounter between these sides at the Tardini finished 0-0, low overall scoring remains the central expectation.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Both Parma and Genoa have scored only two goals across their opening four Serie A games.
- Parma average 2.6 shots on target from 9.0 attempts over their past 10 league matches.
- Genoa average 2.5 attempts on target from 10.3 attempts despite holding 50.2% average possession.
Risk Factor: Genoa's defensive issues could lead to more than two goals if they concede multiple times again.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Maintaining higher ball share than Parma (42.8%), but generating only 10.3 attempts per match.
Averaging just 0.5 goals per match over their last 10 league games due to low shooting precision.
⚔️ Pick 2: Parma vs Genoa 1-1 @ 9/2
Both teams average under one goal per match over their last 10 league games, supporting a low-scoring level result.
A 1-1 draw represents a plausible exact scoreline for two sides struggling to establish superiority in Serie A. Both teams have already recorded 1-1 draws in recent weeks—Parma against Monza and Genoa against Frosinone—and neither team has managed to win a league match this season.
Justifying a Parma goal is straightforward based on recent form and opposition weakness. Carlos Cuesta’s side have scored in consecutive league fixtures through Simone Lontani and David Romero after failing to score in their opening two matches. While Parma average just 0.7 goals across their past 10 league games, Genoa have conceded 1.4 goals per match over the same period, allowing opposition teams an average of 14.3 attempts and 4.4 shots on target. That defensive vulnerability gives the hosts a clear route onto the scoresheet.
Replicating a single goal for Genoa is equally realistic despite their personnel losses. Parma have conceded six goals across four league matches, failing to record a single clean sheet. Although defender Johan Vasquez is suspended, forward Milutin Osmajic scored in Genoa’s recent outing against Como. With Genoa averaging 10.3 attempts per match, they retain enough final-third volume to breach Parma’s defence once. The principal risk remains a scoreless draw or extra goals if Genoa’s defensive unit unravels, but 1-1 captures both teams’ tendency to score modestly while conceding consistently.
Risk Factor: Both teams score under one goal per match, so a low-scoring draw is plausible.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Under 2.5 Goals mean for Parma vs Genoa?
The match must finish with two or fewer total goals scored by both teams combined.
How does the 1-1 Correct Score market settle?
It requires the final result to be exactly Parma 1, Genoa 1 after 90 minutes plus injury time.
What is Genoa's recent head-to-head record against Parma?
Genoa are unbeaten in their past four encounters against Parma, including a 0-0 draw at the Tardini.
How many goals have Parma scored in Serie A this season?
Parma have scored two goals in four Serie A games, both in their last two matches.
Why is defender Johan Vasquez unavailable for Genoa?
He is suspended after receiving two yellow cards in Genoa's previous fixture.
Does holding higher possession guarantee more goals for Genoa?
No, Genoa have 50.2% possession but only 0.5 goals per game on average.
