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Can Daniele De Rossi’s in-form Genoa side keep their grip on this fixture? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Genoa have won their last four league meetings against Udinese and arrive following back-to-back victories. With four wins from their last six at the Luigi Ferraris and Udinese struggling with four losses in their last six matches, the home side carries much stronger momentum and clinical efficiency.
Read Rationale ▾
Genoa’s superior aerial presence and defensive stability at home suggests a tight victory. Udinese’s blunt attack has resulted in only one win in six, and with Genoa typically keeping matches professional under De Rossi, a narrow 1-0 outcome reflects the competitive but lean goalscoring averages of both sides.
Readers’ Tip
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Genoa host Udinese at the Luigi Ferraris with momentum on their side. Back-to-back wins over Roma and Verona have lifted the mood, and there is bite in their recent football.
Genoa vs Udinese — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Genoa’s back-to-back league victories and strong head-to-head record against Udinese make them favourites in the 1X2 market for this Friday night clash.
Genoa and Udinese averages suggest a lower-scoring game, with markets leaning heavily towards Under 2.5 goals at the Luigi Ferraris.
A narrow home victory or a stalemate lead the pricing, reflecting the cagey nature of recent Serie A meetings between these two.
Genoa’s 17.9 aerial duels won per match gives them a significant physical advantage over Udinese’s 16.7, particularly from set-piece situations.
- Genoa have the edge in this matchup: Genoa are unbeaten in their last eight league games against Udinese and have won the last four league meetings, giving this fixture a clear recent pattern heading into Friday night.
- Form points firmly one way: Genoa have won three of their last six and arrive off back-to-back league victories, while Udinese have managed just one win in their last six and have lost four in that spell.
- The numbers are tight, but the details matter: Genoa average 11.5 shots per game to Udinese’s 11.3, win 17.9 aerials to Udinese’s 16.7, and carry stronger recent home form with four wins from their last six at the Luigi Ferraris.
Offensive Intensity: Shots per League Game
Both teams maintain a similar attacking volume, though recent results suggest Genoa have found a sharper edge in front of goal.
Genoa’s willingness to strike from distance and through individual skill is central to their tactical setup under Daniele De Rossi.
Despite high shot numbers, Udinese’s recent struggles reflect a drop in clinical finishing over their last six league fixtures.
Physical Presence: Aerial Dominance
Control of second balls and set-piece situations often hinges on these aerial success rates.
With Leo Østigård leading the line defensively, Genoa carry a significant height advantage in both penalty areas.
Udinese rely on the physicality of Keinan Davis to win long balls, but they trail Genoa in overall aerial win percentage.
Scoring Reliability: Season Goal Tally
A comparison of total league goals highlights the narrow margins between these two mid-table competitors.
Genoa’s goal tally has been boosted by back-to-back wins, showcasing their ability to find multiple scoring routes.
Udinese have struggled to maintain scoring consistency, hitting a blunt patch with only one win in their last six games.
Match Preview
Friday night at Stadio Luigi Ferraris has a sharp, scrappy feel to it. Kick-off is at 19:45, and this is the kind of fixture that can shift the tone of a run-in without making national headlines.
Genoa come into it with energy. Back-to-back wins over Roma and Verona have lifted the mood, and there is bite in their recent football. They are not just grinding through matches either; there is incision, there is edge, and there is belief in this side under Daniele De Rossi.
Udinese arrive in a rougher spot. Kosta Runjaic’s team have won just once in six, and the recent sequence has mixed blunt attack with defensive sloppiness. Add the recent head-to-head trend, and the visitors walk into a ground where unfinished business hangs in the air.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Genoa are dealing with an absence in midfield, with Jean Onana out through an ankle sprain.
Benjamin Siegrist is also unavailable.
Genoa are expected to line up in a 3-5-2, keeping faith with a shape that has brought balance and enough punch in forward areas.
That setup should allow Ruslan Malinovskyi and Junior Messias to support attacks while still feeding the front two quickly.
Genoa probable lineup:
Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Ellertsson, Messias, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Sabelli; Colombo, Ekuban
No specific fresh absences are listed for Udinese in the expected XI.
Udinese are tipped to go with a 4-4-2, aiming for direct service into the front pair and support from wide areas.
Keinan Davis and Nicolò Zaniolo carry much of the danger, while Arthur Atta and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp give them legs from midfield.
The shape could leave Udinese exposed wide if the full-backs get pinned too deep.
Udinese probable lineup:
Okoye; Ehizibue, Kabasele, Kristensen, Karlstroem; Zarraga, Ekkelenkamp, Atta, Kamara; Zaniolo, Davis
The big implication is straightforward. Genoa’s shape looks more settled and more suited to flooding central areas before breaking wide. Udinese’s 4-4-2 gives them a direct route, but it can be stretched if Genoa get their wing play going.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Genoa | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 11th |
| Points | 33 | 36 |
| Serie A goals scored | 36 | 33 |
| Serie A shots per game | 11.5 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 47.5% | 44.8% |
| Pass success | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Aerials won | 17.9 | 16.7 |
| Team rating | 6.57 | 6.54 |
Tactical Battle
Genoa’s left side can hurt Udinese
Genoa like to attack down the left, and that matters here because Udinese are weak at defending against attacks down the wings. That is not a small note. It is one of the clearest pressure points in the game.
With Aarón Martín contributing 5 assists this season and Genoa already comfortable using width from their shape, the home side have a natural route into dangerous areas. If Ellertsson and Martín can get service flowing into the channels, Udinese’s back line could spend the night turning and retreating.
Genoa also carry genuine threat from dead balls. They are strong at attacking set pieces, and Leo Østigård gives them real punch there with 5 goals and 3.6 aerials won per game. Against a side that can wobble defensively, that is a live weapon.
Udinese will go direct and look for Davis
Udinese’s style is more vertical. They use long balls, take a lot of shots, and often attack down the left. The key figure is Keinan Davis, who has 9 goals and 3 assists and gives them a proper focal point.
The problem for Genoa is that one of their biggest weaknesses is defending against through ball attacks. That is marked as very weak, and Udinese have enough runners around Davis to test it. Zaniolo with 5 goals and 4 assists, plus Atta with 3 assists, can slide passes into awkward spaces if Genoa step out too aggressively.
So this is not a one-way game. Genoa may have better rhythm, but Udinese absolutely have the tools to land direct punches if the hosts leave gaps between the lines or lose their shape after turnovers.
Midfield intensity should set the tone
Neither side is built to suffocate games with sterile possession. Genoa are weak at keeping possession of the ball, and Udinese share that weakness. That points towards a match with broken passages, second balls and quick swings of momentum rather than long, calm sequences.
That should suit players like Morten Frendrup for Genoa and Jesper Karlström for Udinese. The midfield battle looks physical and restless, and whichever team wins those loose exchanges will likely get first access to the danger zones.
Genoa do have a stronger knack for stealing the ball, and they are very strong at creating chances through individual skill. That gives them an extra layer. When the match gets messy, they look slightly better equipped to turn that chaos into a chance.
Key Moments to Watch
- Genoa’s left-sided pressure: Udinese are vulnerable out wide, and Genoa already lean naturally towards attacks down that flank.
- Keinan Davis against Genoa’s back line: His 9 goals and physical presence make him the obvious outlet when Udinese go direct.
- Leo Østigård on set pieces: With 5 goals from defence and strong aerial numbers, he is a major threat in both boxes.
- The first ball into space behind Genoa: Their weakness against through balls could invite Udinese to play early and direct.
- Recent home rhythm: Genoa have won four of their last six home matches, and that confidence can shape the tempo quickly.
What could go wrong?
For Genoa, the danger is clear. They push their wing threat too hard, lose the ball in transition and leave space for Udinese to attack through the gaps. For Udinese, the risk is just as obvious: they get dragged wide, cough up cheap territory and let Genoa feed crosses, set plays and second balls into the box all night. This fixture looks close on paper, but the pressure points favour the home side if they stay switched on.
Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The Match Result market is the most straightforward way to back an outcome, where you choose between a home win, an away win, or a draw. This market is settled based on the result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
Other opportunities: Double Chance provides cover for two outcomes (e.g., Home Win or Draw) at a lower price, reducing volatility compared to the straight 1X2.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline of the match. Due to the high number of possible outcomes, it offers higher potential returns but carries significantly more risk.
Other opportunities: Goals Over/Under markets allow for a broader prediction on the total number of goals without needing to specify the exact final tally.
Genoa to Win Rationale 🎯
Genoa enter this fixture as the clear form side following back-to-back victories over Roma and Verona. Their historical dominance in this specific matchup is substantial; they are unbeaten in their last eight league encounters with Udinese and have secured maximum points in each of the last four meetings. This pattern suggests a psychological and tactical edge that Daniele De Rossi has successfully maintained since taking charge. At the Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have been particularly reliable, winning four of their last six home matches, establishing a level of stability that Udinese currently lack.
Tactical Indicators
- Genoa have won the last four consecutive league meetings against Udinese.
- Udinese arrive in poor form, with only one win in their last six league matches.
- Genoa maintain a stronger physical presence, winning 17.9 aerials per game.
Risk Factor: Genoa are weak at defending against through ball attacks, which Keinan Davis and Nicolò Zaniolo could exploit if the home defence loses its shape during transitions.
Genoa 1-0 Udinese Rationale ⚔️
Analysing the goalscoring trends for both sides points toward a narrow, low-scoring encounter. Genoa average 1.12 goals per game while Udinese average 1.0, suggesting that neither side is likely to run away with the scoreline. Genoa’s tactical setup under De Rossi prioritises central solidity, and their strength in aerial duels (17.9 per match) makes them difficult to break down in the box. Given Udinese’s recent struggles—failing to win in five of their last six—a single moment of quality, potentially from a set-piece where Leo Østigård is a major threat, is likely to be the deciding factor.
Risk Factor: Udinese’s direct approach and high volume of shots (11.3 per game) mean a single lapse in concentration from the Genoa backline could result in a stalemate or an upset.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Aarón Martín has 5 assists this season. Genoa exploit wide areas effectively through their 3-5-2 system.
Udinese are specifically noted for struggling to defend against attacks coming down the wings.
Match Q&A 📊
⊕Which team is currently in better form?
Genoa are the form side entering this match. Genoa have won their last two league matches, while Udinese have managed only one victory in their previous six outings.
⊕What is the recent head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have a dominant recent record against Udinese. Genoa are unbeaten in eight league games against them and have won the last four meetings consecutively.
⊕Who is the key player to watch for Udinese?
Keinan Davis is the primary threat for the visitors. Davis has scored 9 goals this season and serves as the focal point for Udinese’s direct attacking style.
⊕What tactical weakness could Udinese exploit?
Udinese could find success by playing through balls. Genoa are noted as being very weak at defending against through ball attacks, which suits Udinese’s vertical passing.
⊕How does the “Match Result” market work?
The Match Result market involves predicting the winner of the game. You can select either a Genoa win, an Udinese win, or a Draw at the end of full-time.
⊕Why is Leo Østigård considered a threat?
Østigård is a major physical presence in both boxes. He wins 3.6 aerial duels per game and has already contributed 5 goals this season from defensive positions.
⊕Is this expected to be a high-scoring game?
No, the statistics suggest a low-scoring match. Both sides average around one goal per game, and Genoa’s home form is built on disciplined defensive structure.
⊕What does “Correct Score” betting involve?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final result. It is a high-risk market because your prediction must match the final tally perfectly to be successful.
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