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Can Cremonese finally break their scoring drought in this crucial survival showdown at the Zini? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Genoa possess a much stronger attacking edge, averaging 1.3 goals per game compared to Cremonese’s 0.84. With the hosts winless in ten matches and struggling for goals, the visitors’ ability to create higher shot volumes makes them the more likely side to secure a vital victory.
Read Rationale ▾
In a tense relegation battle where both teams average high foul counts, a single moment of quality often decides it. Cremonese have failed to score in eight of their last ten matches, while Genoa’s attacking efficiency suggests they can find the one goal needed to take three points.
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It’s a straight fight for oxygen at the bottom end of Serie A between two sides locked on 23 points. Cremonese face a brutal winless run, while Genoa arrive with a sharper attacking edge but a tendency to wobble late in games.
Cremonese vs Genoa — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Genoa’s superior shot volume and goal output give them the edge over a goal-shy Cremonese side winless in ten.
Cremonese’s low scoring average suggests a low-event game, but Genoa’s poor defensive record could allow an opening.
Both teams locked on points and struggling suggests a cagey 1-0 or 1-1 outcome is statistically the most likely.
Cremonese have seven clean sheets this season, matching Genoa’s struggle to protect leads in tight away games.
Survival on a knife-edge: can Cremonese stop the slide against a streetwise Genoa?
- Cremonese’s drought alarm: Cremonese have gone 10 games without a win, taking just three points in that run, scoring only three goals and failing to score in eight of those matches.
- Home crowd waiting for a roar: Cremonese have won just one of their last 10 league games at Stadio Zini, and recently went 241 minutes without scoring in front of their own fans.
- Genoa bring more punch — and more chaos: Genoa have scored 29 Serie A goals to Cremonese’s 21, averaging 11.3 shots per game to 8.7, but they also concede 1.56 goals per game and are very weak at protecting a lead.
Match Preview
It’s a straight fight for oxygen at the bottom end of Serie A — and it doesn’t get much more direct than two sides locked on 23 points meeting on the same pitch. Cremonese have the noise of danger ringing in their ears after a brutal winless run, while Genoa arrive with a sharper attacking edge but the sort of game-state wobble that keeps matches alive long after they should be settled.
The stage is Stadio Giovanni Zini, with kick-off set for 14:00. There’s a neat piece of unfinished business too: the only previous league meeting this season ended Genoa 0-2 Cremonese back in October. Davide Nicola needs a response — fast. Daniele De Rossi will fancy Genoa’s ability to create and strike, but he’ll know this fixture can turn on one scruffy moment.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
A comparison of offensive frequency between the two sides currently fighting for survival.
Genoa’s proactive approach leads to significantly more attempts than their opponents.
Cremonese struggle to generate frequent shooting opportunities during league play.
Scoring Frequency: Total League Goals
Total goals scored across the 24 Serie A games played so far this season.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Cremonese — absentees
- W. Bondo (unknown injury)
- J. Vandeputte (unknown injury)
- M. Collocolo (hamstring injury, out until 17/02/2026)
- M. Faye (facial injury)
Genoa — absentees
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Cremonese (possible XI):
Audero; Terracciano, Baschirotto, Luperto; Barbieri, Thorsby, Payero, Maleh, Pezzella; Bonazzoli, Vardy
Genoa (possible XI):
Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Aarón Martín; Vitinha, Colombo
Tactical Insights
- Both sides lean into a 3-5-2, which screams midfield collisions and wing-back influence.
- Cremonese missing midfield options like Bondo, Vandeputte and Collocolo tightens Nicola’s choices for ball progression and creativity — a problem for a team already short on goals.
- Genoa’s likely front pairing of Vitinha and Lorenzo Colombo looks built for quick, decisive attacks, especially if Ruslan Malinovskyi finds pockets to shoot or slip runners in.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Cremonese | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 16th |
| Points (24 games) | 23 | 23 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 29 |
| Goals conceded | 33 | 37 |
| Goals per game | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| Shots per game | 8.7 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 45.2% | 46.3% |
| Pass accuracy | 77.9% | 79.1% |
| Aerials won | 15.2 | 17.5 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 |
| Corners per game | 3.24 | 3.37 |
Match Analysis
This matchup screams tension: same points, similar possession, similar discipline — but the attacking profiles split. Genoa shoot more and score more, yet they concede more too, which keeps the door open for a low-margin Cremonese side that still finds ways to stay close in games (seven clean sheets). The big question is whether Cremonese can turn territory into threat with a forward line led by Jamie Vardy and Federico Bonazzoli, because the goal output has been a real issue.
Tactical Battle
Midfield wrestle, wing-backs decide
With both teams set up in a back three, the key battles shift wide. Cremonese like to attack through the middle and down the right, mixing in long balls and long shots. That can work when the timing is sharp, but it also invites turnovers — and Cremonese have problems keeping possession and avoiding individual errors. Against a Genoa team that’s very strong at stealing the ball, loose touches are a danger signal.
Genoa, meanwhile, play with width, attempt crosses often, and favour attacking down the left. That points a spotlight straight onto the lane between Cremonese’s right-sided defenders and wing-back. If Aarón Martín and Vitinha can overload that side, Genoa can force scrambles — and they’ve got the shot volume to back it up.
The set-piece swing
This fixture has set-piece volatility written all over it. Genoa are very strong from direct free kicks and strong when attacking set pieces, while Cremonese are listed as very weak at stopping opponents creating chances and very weak defending long shots. That’s a scary blend if fouls stack up around the box — and both teams average about 13 fouls per game.
But it cuts both ways. Genoa are weak at defending set pieces. Cremonese don’t need flowing moves to hurt them — they need delivery, contact, and a second ball falling kindly. With defenders like Federico Baschirotto offering goals from the back (two league goals) and a side that uses long balls, Nicola will want territory and pressure moments rather than a slow passing contest.
Key Moments to Watch
- Direct free kicks and long shots: Genoa’s threat here is loud, especially with Malinovskyi in the side and Cremonese vulnerable to long shots.
- Wide delivery under pressure: Genoa cross often and attack down the left; Cremonese struggle defending down the wings and against through balls.
- Set-piece defending: Genoa can hurt you attacking set pieces — but they also leave space when defending them. One well-worked dead-ball routine could tilt the whole afternoon.
- Early patience vs early panic: Cremonese have recently struggled to find goals at home; if the first spell gets edgy, the match can become frantic and error-prone.
- Discipline and dangerous fouls: With both teams racking up 49–50 yellow cards across the league season, one mistimed tackle in a bad area could create a decisive free-kick moment.
📊 Market Explainer
Draw No Bet (DNB)
The Draw No Bet market removes the option of a draw. You select a team to win, and if the match ends in a stalemate, your stake is returned in full. This offers a safety net for tightly contested matches.
Pros: Reduced risk in cagey games. Cons: Lower odds than the standard 1X2 market.
Correct Score
This market requires you to predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regulation time. It is a high-volatility market because one late goal can change the outcome completely.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Very low margin for error.
🎯 Genoa to Win (DNB) — Rationale
Genoa enter this survival battle with a clear statistical advantage in offensive efficiency. Analysing the season so far, the visitors average 11.3 shots per game and have found the net 29 times, a significant step up from the hosts’ output. Cremonese are currently enduring a brutal ten-match winless run, a period in which they have managed to score just three goals. This lack of firepower is a major concern for Davide Nicola, especially as his side has been blanked in eight of those ten fixtures.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Genoa average 2.6 more shots per game than Cremonese.
- Cremonese have failed to score in 80% of their last 10 league matches.
- Genoa are highly effective at winning possession back to launch quick attacks.
Risk Factor: Genoa are known for being weak at protecting leads and have conceded 37 goals this season.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Genoa are strong at attacking set pieces and dangerous from direct free kicks.
Ranked as very weak at defending long shots and stopping chances from outside the box.
🎯 Genoa 1-0 Correct Score — Rationale
Predicting a narrow 1-0 victory for the visitors aligns with the defensive discipline shown by the home side despite their poor overall form. Cremonese have kept seven clean sheets this season, proving they can remain compact and frustrate opponents. However, their internal struggle to find the net at Stadio Zini, where they recently went 241 minutes without a goal, makes it difficult to see them scoring. Genoa’s tendency to create width and cross often will eventually test a Cremonese defence that is vulnerable down the flanks.
Risk Factor: Genoa are weak at defending set pieces, which remains Cremonese’s most likely route to a goal.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What is the Draw No Bet market?
Draw No Bet (DNB) is a market that pays out if your chosen team wins, but returns your stake if the match ends in a draw. It eliminates the risk of losing your bet on a stalemate.
⊕ Why is Genoa favoured for a 1-0 win?
Genoa create more shots per game and have scored eight more goals than Cremonese this season. Since Cremonese have failed to score in eight of their last ten matches, a low-scoring Genoa win is statistically plausible.
⊕ What are the main injury concerns for Cremonese?
Cremonese are missing key midfield options including Collocolo and Vandeputte. This loss of depth in the centre of the pitch may hinder their ability to progress the ball effectively.
⊕ How does Genoa’s attacking style work?
Genoa favour using the full width of the pitch and frequently attempt crosses. They are particularly dangerous when attacking down the left flank through Aarón Martín.
⊕ Are there any discipline concerns for this match?
Both teams have accumulated around 50 yellow cards this season and average 13 fouls per match. This high frequency of fouls could lead to decisive set-piece opportunities.
⊕ How strong is Cremonese’s home record?
Cremonese have struggled at home, winning just once in their last ten league games at Stadio Zini. They have also recently suffered from a long goal drought in front of their own fans.
⊕ What is Genoa’s main tactical weakness?
Genoa are statistically weak at protecting leads once they are ahead. This vulnerability means the game often remains open even if they score first.
⊕ Does the previous meeting this season matter?
Cremonese won the previous league meeting 2-0 in October. While this gives them a psychological boost, their current winless form is the more immediate factor.
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