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Can Fàbregas’ Como stall the Rossoneri title charge at the San Siro? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Milan are unbeaten in 23 league matches and sit second in the table. While Como dominate possession, they are defensively vulnerable. Allegri’s side is clinical in transition, and playing at San Siro provides a significant advantage against a Como side that often struggles to stop opponents from creating quality chances.
Read Rationale▾
Como average nearly 15 shots per game and boast Nico Paz, who is a high-volume shooter. Given Milan’s occasional lapses and Como’s aggressive possession style, the visitors are likely to find the net. However, Milan’s superior rating and historical unbeaten run suggest they will ultimately outscore their opponents in a tight 2-1 victory.
Readers’ Tip
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AC Milan host ambitious Como at San Siro. Allegri’s side are unbeaten in 23 league games — but Fàbregas brings threat and bite.
AC Milan vs Como — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
AC Milan’s 23-match unbeaten streak and superior team rating make them clear favourites despite Como’s high shot volume.
Both sides average over 1.5 goals per game, suggesting an open encounter where over 2.5 goals is plausible.
The 2-1 Milan victory aligns with their scoring power and Como’s tendency to create chances while conceding frequently.
Como’s league-leading possession stats mean they will dominate the ball even if Milan control the game’s territory.
San Siro Stays Home — Can Cesc Fàbregas’ Como Crash AC Milan’s Title Chase?
- Unbeaten Machine: AC Milan have gone unbeaten in their last 23 Serie A matches, sitting second and eight points off top spot with a game in hand on Inter Milan.
- Como Bring Volume: Como average 62.4% possession and 14.6 shots per game in Serie A — they’ll want the ball, and they’ll keep firing even away from home.
- Cards Change Everything: Milan’s last outing ended with Adrien Rabiot sent off in stoppage time, while Como’s squad features players with notable discipline totals — Máximo Perrone (7 yellows) and Ivan Smolcic (7 yellows) among them.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Serie A Game
While Milan are clinical, Como lead the volume with an aggressive approach that prioritises testing the goalkeeper frequently.
Milan rely on high-quality chances created by through balls and movement in their 3-5-2 system.
Como’s possession-heavy style translates into significant shot volume, with Nico Paz leading the charge at 3.8 per game.
Ball Retention: Possession Statistics
A clash of styles: Allegri’s pragmatic control versus Fàbregas’ desire to dominate the ball through short passing.
Milan are comfortable without the ball, using structure to protect central lanes before hitting on the break.
Como boast one of the highest possession rates in the league, aiming to pin opponents back at the Meazza.
This fixture was meant to be a statement abroad. Instead, it’s back where it belongs — under the glare of Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, with noise, edge, and a title race feel to it. AC Milan, managed by Massimiliano Allegri, come in as second place and still chasing, still relentless, still refusing to lose in the league.
But Como aren’t arriving to be polite. Cesc Fàbregas has them playing possession football with sharp through balls and real counter-attacking punch. The mood is set: Milan with the pressure of expectation, Como with the freedom of ambition — and a match that’s already been controversial before a ball is even kicked.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries / absences (explicitly stated):
- AC Milan: Adrien Rabiot was sent off last time out (availability not stated beyond that).
- Como: No injuries/absences specified.
AC Milan probable lineup (3-5-2)
Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Athekame, Fofana, Modric, Loftus-Cheek, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Nkunku
Como probable lineup (4-2-3-1)
Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Vojvoda, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | AC Milan | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 24 | 24 |
| Goals scored | 40 | 38 |
| Shots per game | 13.3 | 14.6 |
| Possession | 51.8% | 62.4% |
| Pass accuracy | 87.4% | 87.2% |
| Team rating | 6.76 | 6.71 |
Milan have the slightly sharper output and the higher overall rating, but Como bring the bigger shot volume and more ball. That’s the tension: Allegri’s side don’t need to dominate possession to control a match, while Fàbregas’ Como will try to turn possession into territory and repeat pressure.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Milan’s control without the obsession
Allegri’s Milan look built for management, not chaos. The 3-5-2 lets them keep the pitch compact, slide across to protect central areas, and still hit forward quickly with through balls. That matters here because Como want to play — and teams that want to play can be baited.
Watch Luka Modric. Even at 40, he’s still producing decisive moments — he scored the late winner last time out. If Milan can get Modric receiving between Como’s midfield and defence, the game speeds up instantly. Christian Pulisic and Christopher Nkunku as a front pair screams movement: one darts in behind, one drops into pockets, both can finish.
The flip side is risk. Milan’s weaknesses include avoiding offside, and with Como willing to play the offside trap, those runs have to be timed to perfection. Early frustration is possible if the flag keeps going up and attacks keep stalling.
Como’s possession, and the danger behind it
Como’s identity is clear: possession football, short passes, through balls often, and an aggressive edge. They’re also strong at counter attacks — which sounds like a contradiction until you see the idea: keep the ball until the lane opens, and if it doesn’t, win it back quickly and go again.
The headline man is Nico Paz: 8 goals, 6 assists, a massive 7.61 rating, and 3.8 shots per game. That’s not a passenger. That’s a player who shoots, creates, and takes responsibility. Pair that with Douvikas (also 8 goals) and Milan’s back three won’t get a quiet night.
But there’s a crack Milan will aim for: Como are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That’s a flashing red sign against a side whose strengths include creating scoring chances and finishing scoring chances. If Como’s full-backs step high and lose duels, Milan can get straight into the spaces they leave behind.
Key Moments to Watch
- Central lanes: Both teams want to attack through the middle. Whoever wins the second balls around midfield — Youssouf Fofana and Ruben Loftus-Cheek for Milan, Máximo Perrone and Lucas da Cunha for Como — will set the tempo.
- Wide outlet vs wide exposure: Milan are strong attacking down the wings, but Como’s aggression can force turnovers. The first five minutes of each half may decide whether wing-backs get freedom or get pinned back.
- Set pieces: Both sides are strong defending set pieces. That usually means fewer cheap goals and more emphasis on clean delivery and second phases.
- Discipline and momentum swings: Milan are coming off a match where Adrien Rabiot saw red late on. Como have plenty of players carrying yellows. A single rash moment can flip the script fast.
- The Paz problem: If Nico Paz is allowed to shoot regularly — and he averages 3.8 shots per game — Milan could find themselves defending the edge of the box far more than they’d like.
What could go wrong?
Milan can dominate a match and still end up in a scrap if their forward runs keep straying offside and transitions get messy. Como can control possession and still get punished if they can’t slow Milan’s chance creation. And with aggression baked into the visitors’ approach, this one has the ingredients for a flashpoint that changes everything.
📊 Market Insights & Tactical Analysis
Match Result (1X2)
The 1X2 market is the most traditional form of betting on football, where you select one of three outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2). It covers the result at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. This market offers simplicity but can be volatile in tight tactical battles.
Correct Score
This market requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of the match. While it offers significantly higher prices due to the difficulty of being precise, it requires a deep understanding of both teams’ defensive stability and attacking conversion rates. Late goals are the primary risk factor here.
🎯 Rationale: AC Milan to Win
AC Milan arrive at this fixture as a relentless force in Serie A, currently boasting an extraordinary 23-match unbeaten streak. Sitting in second place and trailing leaders Inter Milan by eight points with a game in hand, the pressure of a title race is driving Allegri’s squad to maintain high standards. Milan’s 3-5-2 system is designed for pragmatic control; they do not need to dominate possession to dictate the outcome, which is vital against a side like Como that enjoys having the ball. Milan’s superior team rating of 6.76 compared to Como’s 6.71 reflects a squad that is more balanced across all phases of play.
Tactically, Milan are expert at baiting possession-heavy teams into high areas before exploiting the space left behind. With clinical finishers like Christian Pulisic and Christopher Nkunku leading the line, and Luka Modric providing decisive service from midfield, Milan possess the quality to punish a Como defence that is noted for its weakness in stopping opponents from creating quality chances. While Como bring high shot volume, Milan’s defensive structure is better equipped to manage sustained pressure.
Tactical Indicators:
- Milan are unbeaten in 23 consecutive league matches.
- Como are statistically weak at preventing opponent chance creation.
- Milan possess a higher team rating and superior passing accuracy (87.4%).
Risk Factor: Milan must time their forward runs perfectly to avoid being caught by Como’s frequent use of the offside trap.
⚔️ Rationale: AC Milan 2-1 Como
Predicting a 2-1 victory for the home side accounts for the specific attacking profiles of both teams. AC Milan average nearly 1.7 goals per league match, and their ability to finish scoring chances is a primary strength. However, Como are far from a passive opponent. Under Cesc Fàbregas, they have adopted an aggressive possession style, averaging 62.4% ball retention. More importantly, they lead the shot volume in this matchup with 14.6 shots per game. Nico Paz is a central threat in this regard, averaging 3.8 shots per game himself, which makes a Como goal highly plausible even against a disciplined Milan back three.
The 2-1 scoreline reflects a match where Como’s territory and shot volume eventually yield a goal, but Milan’s efficiency and home advantage at the San Siro prevail. Milan’s experience in navigating tight title-race fixtures often leads to narrow, managed victories. Como’s aggression can lead to turnovers in dangerous areas, and with Milan’s wing-backs stretching the play, the visitors’ full-backs may find themselves exposed when they step high to support the attack.
Risk Factor: Disciplinarity issues could play a role, as both teams have players with high yellow card counts and Milan are coming off a late red card.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Allegri’s men excel at finishing scoring chances and creating openings through central through balls.
Como struggle significantly with preventing opponents from creating quality shots and goal-scoring opportunities.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕What does the 1X2 market mean?
The 1X2 market refers to betting on the match outcome: 1 for a home win, X for a draw, and 2 for an away win. It is the most standard way to predict which team will win a football match in regulation time.
⊕How does the Correct Score market work?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final score of a game, such as 2-1 or 1-0. Because it is harder to predict than a simple win or loss, the odds offered are usually much higher.
⊕Is AC Milan’s unbeaten streak significant for this match?
Yes, AC Milan are currently on a 23-match unbeaten run in Serie A. This indicates a high level of consistency and resilience, making them strong favourites against most opponents at San Siro.
⊕What is Nico Paz’s role for Como?
Nico Paz is Como’s primary attacking threat, averaging 3.8 shots per game and having recorded 8 goals and 6 assists. He is the player most likely to create or score for the visitors.
⊕Does Como’s high possession mean they will win?
Not necessarily; Como average 62.4% possession but struggle with defensive fragility. AC Milan often allow opponents the ball while maintaining tactical control through an organised defensive structure.
⊕How does the ‘offside trap’ affect the game?
Como frequently use the offside trap to catch attacking players out of position. This means Milan’s strikers must time their runs into the box with high precision to stay onside.
⊕Are there any major discipline concerns for this game?
Yes, Adrien Rabiot was recently sent off for Milan, and Como have several players like Máximo Perrone and Ivan Smolcic who have accumulated 7 yellow cards each this season.
⊕What is the significance of Milan’s 3-5-2 formation?
The 3-5-2 shape allows Milan to keep the midfield compact and protect central lanes. It forces play out wide to wing-backs like Athekame, who provide the primary width for their attacks.
Last Odds Update: Feb 17, 15:53 GMT | Editorial Policy
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