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Can St Mirren’s home control blunt Kilmarnock’s counter-punch at the SMiSA Stadium? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams have 34 goals this season and poor defensive records. 9 of the last 10 H2Hs saw 3+ goals.
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These sides are separated by one point. Both average ~2 goals per game and struggle to keep clean sheets.
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St Mirren vs Kilmarnock Predictions and Best Bets
St Mirren vs Kilmarnock — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Current pricing highlights the hosts as favorites due to their three-game winning streak and Kilmarnock’s ongoing 11-match winless league run.
While 1-0 is favored by traditional defensive trends, current form suggests a slightly more open contest with goals at both ends.
League statistics point towards a lower-scoring affair, though Kilmarnock’s defensive record on the road adds a layer of uncertainty.
- St Mirren sit ninth with 17 points from 16 games, while Kilmarnock are 11th with 12 from 18, leaving only five points between them in the table.
- St Mirren average 12.3 shots per Premiership game and have scored 15 in 16 matches, but their home league scoring average is 0.78, hinting at fine margins.
- Kilmarnock have lost their last three Premiership matches and, across their last 21 league games, have recorded only three wins, adding extra pressure to this away trip.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
The volume of attempts provides insight into which side is more active in final-third entries during Premiership fixtures.
The hosts maintain a steady attacking output, though converting these numerous chances into goals remains their primary challenge.
Kilmarnock’s lower shot count reflects a team that often relies on efficiency and transition moments rather than sustained pressure.
Match Control: Average Possession %
A comparison of how much time each team spends on the ball, suggesting the likely territorial battle in Paisley.
While not ball-dominant, St Mirren typically see more of the ball than their upcoming opponents, especially when playing at home.
Kilmarnock frequently operate with the lowest possession share in the league, preferring to cede control and break with pace.
St Mirren welcome Kilmarnock to the SMiSA Stadium on Saturday, 27 December, with the Scottish Premiership table giving this one a proper edge. Just five points separate the sides at a tense point in the domestic season, and both are trying to put daylight between themselves and the bottom places.
The standings underline why it matters. St Mirren sit ninth with 17 points from 16 games, while Kilmarnock are 11th with 12 points from 18. That gap isn’t enormous, but it’s big enough to make this feel like a hinge fixture: win it and you can breathe a little easier; lose it and the pressure starts to creep into everything from decision-making in possession to how brave you feel defending your own box.
St Mirren arrive with a recent run that includes wins over Dundee United, Celtic and Livingston, plus a 3-3 draw away at Aberdeen. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, have endured a difficult spell, with defeats against Motherwell, Rangers, Aberdeen and Falkirk around draws with Dundee United and Hearts. In a match-up between two teams who both want to be the ones dictating where the game is played, the early tone could be everything.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
St Mirren’s possible starting XI is listed as: Shamal George; Richard King, Miguel Freckleton, Marcus Fraser; Alex Gogic, Killian Phillips, Roland Idowu, Conor McMenamin, Declan John; Dan N’Lundulu, Jonah Ayunga.
On paper, that reads like a back three with Declan John and Conor McMenamin providing the running on the outside, and a central platform built around Gogic and Phillips. If it does look like that, St Mirren’s balance is clear: numbers behind the ball for protection, but enough bodies ahead of it to sustain pressure and keep the match in Kilmarnock’s half.
Kilmarnock’s possible starting XI is listed as: Tobi Oluwayemi; James Brown, Lewis Mayo, Robbie Deas, Dominic Thompson; Brad Lyons, Liam Polworth, Greg Kiltie; Tyreece John-Jules, David Watson, Bruce Anderson.
That looks more like a back four with a three and then a fluid front line, which would shape the contest in a very particular way: Kilmarnock potentially trying to stretch St Mirren laterally, while St Mirren look to crowd the middle and feed the two forwards early. It also sets up some tasty individual battles—wing areas especially—because both sides are flagged as vulnerable when defending attacks down the wings.
How the Match Could Be Played
The broad stylistic picture suggests a game with plenty of directness, plenty of balls into the channels, and plenty of moments where second balls matter more than slow, neat build-up.
St Mirren are described as attempting crosses often and using long balls, while also looking to control the game in the opposition’s half and attack through the middle. That mix is interesting. It hints at a plan where territory comes first: push the line up, squeeze play, and then choose the route—either punch it through central lanes or spin it wide for an early delivery. With N’Lundulu and Ayunga as the possible front pair, you can imagine St Mirren being happy to go early into forward areas, then build the attack from there rather than insisting on a long possession sequence.
Kilmarnock are described as playing with width, attacking down the right, and also attempting crosses often with long balls. Add in “counter attacks” as a listed strength and “aggressive” as part of their style, and you get a clear picture: they want to win it, move it quickly, and arrive in the box with runners. If Watson is part of the front line as listed, his involvement could be crucial for those transition moments—finding pockets between midfield and defence, then turning a clearance into an attack before St Mirren can reset.
Where does that leave the likely battleground? The wing zones and the space behind whoever is pushed on. Both teams are labelled weak at keeping possession of the ball, which often turns matches into sequences rather than stories: a phase for one side, then a phase for the other, with the key question being who uses those phases more cleanly.
St Mirren’s weaknesses include defending counter attacks, protecting the lead, and defending against attacks down the wings. That is basically a warning label for what Kilmarnock most like doing: breaking quickly and using width. If St Mirren commit numbers to “control the game in the opposition’s half”, they have to be sharp with their rest-defence—who stays, who covers, who delays? That’s where players like Gogic and Phillips become central not just to build-up, but to stopping the match from turning into a track meet.
Kilmarnock, meanwhile, are flagged as very weak defending against through ball attacks and very weak at keeping possession, with weaknesses also in defending counter attacks. That invites a different kind of St Mirren threat: if they can tempt Kilmarnock into stepping out aggressively, there may be space to slip runners beyond that first wave. Even if St Mirren are generally direct, the presence of Declan John—who has four assists in the Premiership—suggests they have someone capable of supplying the final pass or delivery when the moment is on.
Set pieces could also carry weight because St Mirren are listed as strong both attacking set pieces and defending set pieces, while also strong shooting from direct free kicks. In a match where both teams can struggle to finish chances in open play, the ability to turn dead balls into big moments can tilt everything.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league season numbers lean towards a match with plenty of attempts but not always a polished final action.
St Mirren have 15 goals in 16 Premiership games, and average 12.3 shots per game. Kilmarnock have 17 goals in 18, averaging 10.8 shots per game. That tells you both sides get into shooting positions with reasonable frequency, but it doesn’t automatically mean those shots are high quality—and that matters because both teams are labelled weak at finishing scoring chances, with St Mirren described as very weak in that area.
Possession and passing figures reinforce the idea of a game that can swing quickly. St Mirren average 43.3% possession with a 73.3% pass success rate in the Premiership; Kilmarnock are at 38.9% possession and 70.7% pass success. When neither side expects to dominate the ball, the emphasis tends to move to territory, duels, and how quickly you can turn a regain into a chance.
Some of the recent trend notes add colour to the likely rhythm. St Mirren’s last three home Premiership games have finished with under 2.5 goals, and they average 0.78 goals scored in home league matches. That doesn’t mean they won’t create, but it does hint at the type of match where one clean sequence—or one set-piece—can loom large.
Kilmarnock’s recent league spell is also stark: they have lost their last three Premiership matches, and across their last 21 Premiership games they have only three wins. If you’re coming into a tough away ground in that sort of run, you often want the first 15 minutes to feel stable. Win your duels, make your clearances, get up the pitch, and give the game a shape you recognise.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big “moment” might be the wing battle that isn’t always obvious on the team sheet. Both sides are flagged as weak when defending attacks down the wings, and both want to cross often. That can create a loop: if one team starts getting joy wide, the other responds by pushing a little wider to protect, which opens pockets inside. That’s where a player like Declan John—already credited with four assists in the league—could become a quiet problem-solver, whether through delivery or clever positioning that draws defenders out.
Another moment to watch is what happens straight after a chance. St Mirren’s vulnerability to counter attacks and Kilmarnock’s strength in them suggests those chaotic seconds after a blocked shot or a loose ball could decide the match’s biggest swing. If St Mirren “control the game in the opposition’s half” but lose structure when attacks break down, Kilmarnock have the tools—width, long balls, and runners—to turn one clearance into a proper scare.
Set pieces feel like the obvious pressure point too. St Mirren are listed as strong in both attacking and defending set pieces, and strong shooting from direct free kicks. If open play becomes scrappy, those situations become more than just half-chances; they become opportunities to change the entire mood in the ground.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. If both teams’ finishing issues show up again, the match can become a story of near-misses and “how has that not gone in?” moments rather than the clean tactical patterns you sketch beforehand. And if the first goal arrives in a messy way—an error, a deflection, a second ball—then the shape can distort quickly, with both sides chasing emotions as much as space.
Best Bet for St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
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St Mirren to win
The competitive landscape of the Scottish Premiership heading into the festive period suggests a significant opportunity for the home side. St Mirren enter this fixture on a notably positive trajectory, having secured three consecutive victories across all competitions. This run is headlined by a 1-0 league win over Livingston and a standout 3-1 victory against Celtic in the League Cup final earlier this month. Such momentum has allowed them to carve out a five-point cushion over their visitors, despite having played two fewer matches. While they have faced challenges against the league’s traditional heavyweights, their ability to navigate fixtures against teams in the bottom half of the table has been a defining feature of their recent form.
In contrast, Kilmarnock arrive in Paisley amidst a period of deep instability. The club is currently winless in 11 league outings, a drought stretching back to early October. Their recent performances have offered little indication of a turnaround, suffering three consecutive Premiership defeats against Falkirk, Aberdeen, and Rangers. This poor run has left them 11th in the standings, firmly entrenched in a relegation battle and currently operating under the guidance of interim management.
Statistically, the home comforts of the SMiSA Stadium have served St Mirren well. They average 0.78 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded per home game, ranking them 5th in the league for defensive solidity on their own turf. Kilmarnock’s away record exacerbates their current predicament; they concede an average of 2.12 goals per match on the road and have failed to win any of their last five away league fixtures. While Kilmarnock found success in the previous meeting this season, the shift in form and the psychological boost of St Mirren’s recent silverware suggests the hosts are better positioned to dictate the flow of the game. St Mirren’s strength in set-pieces—both offensively and defensively—provides a reliable route to goal in what could be a tightly contested affair.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection lies in the clinical nature of both attacks. St Mirren are described as having significant weaknesses in finishing scoring chances, averaging just 0.8 goals per match. If they fail to capitalize on their expected territorial dominance, they remain vulnerable to Kilmarnock’s strength on the counter-attack. Additionally, Kilmarnock have managed to score in each of their last eight league meetings with St Mirren, suggesting that even a struggling side can find a way to breach the home defense and potentially force a stalemate.
Correct score lean: St Mirren 2-1 Kilmarnock
The rationale for a 2-1 victory rests on the defensive vulnerabilities of the visitors balanced against the hosts’ recent efficiency. Kilmarnock concede over two goals per game away from home and have allowed more goal attempts than the league average, suggesting St Mirren will create multiple high-value opportunities. However, Kilmarnock’s historical knack for finding the net in this specific matchup—and St Mirren’s own struggles to maintain clean sheets—makes a narrow, competitive scoreline more likely than a landslide. St Mirren’s recent 3-3 draw with Aberdeen and 3-1 win over Celtic show they can be involved in multi-goal games when the stakes are high.
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