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Can the leaders stay ruthless as the bottom side fight to keep hope alive? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Hearts dominate this matchup, sitting top with 66 points against bottom-placed Livingston. The visitors have won five straight league meetings and boast significantly better shot volume and possession. With Livingston winless in 31 games and missing a key defender, the league leaders should maintain their authority comfortably.
Read Rationale ▾
Hearts have a disciplined defence, conceding only 25 goals all season, while Livingston struggle for goals and possession. Given Hearts’ tendency for controlled, narrow victories and Livingston’s defensive vulnerability at set pieces, a professional 2-0 away win aligns with the statistical trends and superior quality of the leaders.
This fixture carries urgency at both ends of the table. Livingston host Hearts in a huge Premiership clash as the leaders chase another win and the Lions battle to keep survival hopes alive.
Livingston vs Hearts — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Hearts’ status as league leaders with five straight wins over Livingston makes them heavy favourites in the 1X2 market.
Livingston’s defensive struggles combined with Hearts’ attacking variety points toward a moderate scoring game at the Tony Macaroni.
Hearts’ superior quality and defensive stability make narrow scorelines like 1-0 or 2-0 highly plausible for the leaders.
Hearts’ average possession of 52.8% vs Livingston’s 44.0% suggests the visitors will control the rhythm for long periods.
Key Match Stats
- Livingston’s brutal slide: Livingston sit bottom with 15 points from 31 matches and have gone 31 games without a win in all competitions, leaving Marvin Bartley’s side with almost no margin for error.
- Hearts’ control is clear: Hearts are top with 66 points, have scored 53 league goals, conceded only 25, and have won five straight league meetings with Livingston coming into this one.
- Shot volume tells a story: Livingston average 9.4 shots per league game and 44.0% possession, while Hearts post 14.3 shots per game and 52.8% possession, which points to long spells of away pressure.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Hearts maintain a significantly higher offensive presence than Livingston across the season.
Livingston generate fewer opportunities, making clinical finishing vital in their battle for points.
The league leaders’ high shot volume reflects their ability to pin opponents back for long spells.
Defensive Comparison: Goals Conceded
The contrast in defensive stability has been a defining factor for both clubs this year.
Livingston’s defence has been breached frequently, highlighting struggles at set pieces and down the wings.
Hearts’ strong defensive record is built on control and a settled lineup that protects leads well.
Match Preview
This fixture carries urgency at both ends of the table. Livingston are bottom of the Scottish Premiership with 15 points, while Hearts arrive at the summit on 66 and with the chance to keep their grip on first place.
The mood around the home side is tense. Livingston have drawn four of their last six league matches, which shows fight, but the bigger picture remains grim after a season that has slipped badly away from them. Hearts, by contrast, have won four of their last six league games and built their campaign on control, clean defending and repeated narrow victories.
At the Tony Macaroni Arena, this feels like a match between a side trying to drag itself back into the fight and another determined to keep marching at the front.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Livingston are without Brooklyn Kabongolo through suspension after a red card. That matters because Kabongolo has returned a 6.87 rating, scored 2 goals, and wins 3.9 aerial duels per game. Livingston already look vulnerable in wide areas and on defensive transitions, so losing another centre-back option adds more strain.
No injuries or suspensions are listed for Hearts. That should help Derek McInnes keep the settled feel that has powered Hearts through the run-in. Hearts’ consistent shape and repeat selection have been a big part of their authority this season.
Probable Livingston lineup
Prior, McGowan, Wilson, Finlayson, Kerr, Sylla, Pittman, Tait, Montano, Muirhead, Nouble
Probable Hearts lineup
Schwolow, McEntee, McCart, Steinwender, Borchgrevink, Altena, Leonard, Devlin, Kyziridis, Braga, Kabore
The shape of those lineups hints at the pattern straight away. Livingston look set to protect central spaces and scrap for territory, while Hearts have the legs, passing numbers and attacking variety to pin them back for long stretches.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Livingston | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 1st |
| Points | 15 | 66 |
| Goals scored | 31 | 53 |
| Goals conceded | 61 | 25 |
| Shots per game | 9.4 | 14.3 |
| Possession | 44.0% | 52.8% |
| Pass success | 74.8% | 76.9% |
| Aerials won | 21.2 | 27.4 |
Tactical Battle
Hearts should own the pitch
Everything about Hearts suggests a team that wants to control the game in the opposition half. Their average possession is higher, their passing is cleaner, and they produce almost five more shots per game than Livingston.
That matters against a Livingston side who often sit deep and play in their own half. The hosts can go direct, they can use width, and they do attack down the right, but too often that comes after spells without control. When the ball keeps coming back, pressure builds fast.
Hearts also look built for repeat attacks. Marc Leonard has a strong rating of 7.39, Cameron Devlin completes 86.5% of his passes, and Alexandros Kyziridis brings 6 assists from wide areas. That gives Hearts a platform to shift the ball, recover it quickly and go again.
Livingston need the game to stay messy
Livingston’s best chance may be to turn this into a fractured contest. The home side have drawn four of their last six league matches and shown they can hang around in games even when they are under strain.
They also have players who can make moments happen. Robbie Muirhead has 4 goals and 2 assists, Scott Pittman has 4 goals and 2 assists, and Cristian Montano has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists. There is enough there to trouble Hearts if Livingston can break pressure and force the visitors to defend facing their own goal.
But Livingston’s weaknesses are hard to ignore. They are weak at protecting a lead, weak at defending counter attacks, weak at defending set pieces and very weak against attacks down the wings. That is a dangerous mix against a side with wide threat and strong delivery.
Set pieces could tilt it
This is one of the clearest mismatches in the fixture. Hearts are very strong at attacking set pieces and strong at defending them. Livingston, on the other hand, are weak at defending set pieces and at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas.
That brings Cláudio Braga, Lawrence Shankland, Craig Halkett and Stuart Findlay into focus. Braga has 12 league goals, Shankland has 11, while Halkett and Findlay offer real aerial presence. Halkett wins 5.5 aerial duels per game, one of the strongest figures in the squad. If Hearts win corners and free kicks around the box, Livingston may spend too much of the afternoon defending second balls and knock-downs. For the hosts, discipline and first contact are massive.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 20 minutes: Hearts will want to establish field position early and stop Livingston settling into a low block.
- Wide areas: Livingston are very weak against attacks down the wings, and Hearts have enough movement outside and inside to exploit that.
- Set pieces at both ends: Hearts are powerful here, while Livingston have looked vulnerable.
- The first goal: Livingston’s average time for a first goal scored sits at 42 minutes, while Hearts score their first goal on average at 44 minutes and concede at 17 minutes. The opening breakthrough could shape the whole game.
- Muirhead’s involvement: Livingston need a front player to hold the ball, win fouls and turn scraps into chances. Muirhead feels central to that.
- Braga and Kyziridis in the final third: Hearts have goals and creativity across that line, and they do not rely on one route to goal.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Livingston, the biggest danger is that the game follows the season’s pattern too closely: too much defending, too many second balls lost, too much space in wide areas. If that happens, the pressure could become constant.
For Hearts, the risk is a flat away display like some of their recent road results. They have lost four of their last six away league matches, and Livingston’s recent run of draws shows they can make games awkward. If Hearts dominate the ball but lack sharpness in the final pass, frustration could creep in and turn a controlled afternoon into a nervy one.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
This is the most straightforward market where you predict the final outcome of the match: a Home Win, a Draw, or an Away Win. It covers the full 90 minutes plus injury time. It is ideal for backing a team with superior form and technical quality.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Because it is highly specific, the prices are typically much higher. It suits a higher-risk approach where statistical trends point towards a specific defensive or offensive pattern.
🎯 Hearts to Win Rationale
The gap between the top and bottom of the Scottish Premiership is reflected in every major metric for this fixture. Hearts arrive as the league leaders with 66 points, while Livingston are rooted to the foot of the table with just 15. The technical gulf is highlighted by the visitors’ superior possession (52.8% vs 44.0%) and attacking output, with Hearts averaging nearly five more shots per game than their hosts. Furthermore, Hearts have won five consecutive league meetings with Livingston, establishing a clear psychological and tactical authority.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Livingston are winless in 31 games across all competitions.
- Hearts boast the best defensive record in the league with only 25 goals conceded.
- Hearts create 14.3 shots per game compared to Livingston’s 9.4.
Risk Factor: Hearts have lost four of their last six away league matches, and Livingston have managed to draw four of their last six league games.
🎯 Hearts 2-0 Correct Score Rationale
Predicting a 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with the significant defensive and offensive disparities between the two sides. Livingston have conceded 61 goals this season and show specific vulnerabilities against wide attacks and set pieces—two areas where Hearts are particularly strong. With key Livingston defender Brooklyn Kabongolo suspended, the hosts lose a significant aerial presence (3.9 duels won per game). Hearts’ ability to control territory and their defensive discipline suggest they can secure a comfortable lead without conceding against a side that struggles for possession.
Risk Factor: Livingston’s recent resilience at home has led to several draws, potentially frustrating Hearts if the opening goal is delayed.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Strong at attacking set-plays with aerial threats like Halkett winning 5.5 duels per match.
Weak at defending set-pieces and conceding down the wings; missing suspended defender Kabongolo.
❓ Match Q&A
⊕What does the Match Result market cover?
What does the Match Result market cover?
The Match Result market covers the outcome of the game at the end of regulation time (90 minutes plus injury time).
This includes the three possible outcomes: Home Win, Away Win, or Draw. It is the most common football betting market for beginners.
⊕How does Correct Score betting work?
How does Correct Score betting work?
You must predict the exact final scoreline of the match for the selection to win.
If you back 2-0, any other result (such as 1-0 or 2-1) will result in a loss, which is why the odds are higher than standard markets.
⊕Why is Hearts the favourite for this game?
Why is Hearts the favourite for this game?
Hearts are top of the league with 66 points while Livingston are bottom with only 15.
Hearts have also won the last five league meetings between these two sides, showing consistent superiority.
⊕What is Livingston’s current form?
What is Livingston’s current form?
Livingston are currently winless in 31 matches across all competitions, reflecting a severe slide in results.
However, they have shown some resilience lately by drawing four of their last six league fixtures.
⊕Which key player is missing for Livingston?
Which key player is missing for Livingston?
Livingston are without centre-back Brooklyn Kabongolo, who is suspended following a red card.
Kabongolo is a key defensive asset, winning an average of 3.9 aerial duels per match.
⊕Who are Hearts’ main attacking threats?
Who are Hearts’ main attacking threats?
Cláudio Braga and Lawrence Shankland are the primary threats, with 12 and 11 league goals respectively.
They are supported by Alexandros Kyziridis, who has provided 6 assists from wide positions this season.
⊕How does possession usually split between these teams?
How does possession usually split between these teams?
Hearts average 52.8% possession while Livingston typically have much less of the ball at 44.0%.
This suggests Hearts will control the rhythm and territory for the majority of the match.
⊕Is betting on the Correct Score risky?
Is betting on the Correct Score risky?
Yes, Correct Score betting is considered high-volatility because one late goal can ruin an otherwise perfect prediction.
It is generally used for smaller stakes given the difficulty of predicting the exact number of goals for both sides.
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