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Can Benin’s new belief survive Senegal’s pressure as Group D reaches its finish line? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by the poor goal-scoring records of both clubs, who have combined for only 33 goals across 38 total matches. Dundee’s low shot volume (7.9 per game) and Kilmarnock’s noted weakness in finishing scoring chances make a high-scoring game unlikely. Their recent history also points toward a stalemate, including a 0-0 draw earlier this season. With both teams averaging under 40% possession, the match will likely be disjointed and played primarily in the middle third, reducing the frequency of clear-cut opportunities.
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A 1-0 victory for Dundee reflects the trend of their recent results, including a win by the same scoreline in their last home match. Given Kilmarnock’s 11-game winless streak and their difficulties in front of goal, the hosts are best positioned to capitalize on a single defensive lapse. Both teams are weak at defending set pieces, which often serves as the deciding factor in matches where open-play chances are rare. Dundee’s slightly better home form gives them the edge to secure a narrow, vital result in the relegation battle.
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Dundee vs Kilmarnock Predictions and Best Bets
Dundee vs Kilmarnock — bet365 Market Snapshot
Current pricing for this Scottish Premiership clash across primary betting markets.
Dundee enter as home underdogs against a Kilmarnock side currently on an eleven-match winless streak in the league.
Low scoring outcomes are priced as the most probable scenarios given both sides’ modest attacking records.
Pricing leans toward a lower goal tally, with Dundee averaging under one goal per league match this season.
- Senegal’s volume and control: Across two tournament matches they’ve scored four goals and averaged 19.5 shots per game, alongside 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate.
- Benin’s tight-margin tournament so far: Two AFCON games have produced one Benin goal scored and one conceded, with 48.7% possession and an average of 11 shots per game shaping a more selective approach.
- A striker already makingconsiderable impact: Nicolas Jackson has two goals in Senegal’s two AFCON matches, while Benin’s Steve Mounié has one goal and one assist, underlining direct involvement in their attacking output.
Tactical Control: Average Possession %
Both clubs operate with a direct approach, often bypassing midfield which results in low overall possession figures for both sides.
Dundee focus on width and long balls, spending much of the match competing for territory in their own half.
Kilmarnock utilize a similar direct style, prioritizing crossing volume and counter-attacking over possession.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Match
While Kilmarnock generate more attempts on goal, their lack of clinical finishing has limited their league goals tally so far.
Dundee’s offensive threats are spread thin, with four players tied for the lead on just two league goals.
Kilmarnock average double-digit shots per match, yet they remain one of the lower-scoring sides in the division.
Dundee welcome Kilmarnock to Dens Park on Tuesday for a meeting between 10th and 11th in the Scottish Premiership. The table is doing plenty of the talking on its own: Dundee have 16 points from 19 games, Kilmarnock have 13 from 19, and both sit just above Livingston at the bottom.
The recent results around both clubs have been choppy rather than smooth. Dundee’s last six includes two wins, a draw and three defeats, while Kilmarnock’s last six features three draws and three defeats. That shared lack of comfort brings a particular flavour to this one. It’s not about who’s flying; it’s about who can make a messy night feel controlled.
There’s also a stylistic meeting here that could pull the game in a few directions at once. Dundee are described as a long-ball, wide, long-shot side who tend to play in their own half, while Kilmarnock lean towards width, crosses, long balls and plenty of shots, with an appetite for counter attacks. Two teams who don’t love keeping the ball, both trying to create danger in similar ways, can produce a match full of second balls, hurried clearances and sudden momentum swings. It can also produce the opposite: a lot of territory, a lot of “nearly”, and goalkeepers watching punts sail over their heads for fun.
Either way, the stakes are straightforward. The points are sitting there, begging, and neither side can afford to treat them like a novelty.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Dundee’s possible starting XI is McCracken; Wright, Koumetio, Graham, Astley; Hamilton, Dhanda, Jones; Congreve, Yogane, Hay. That reads like a back four, three central midfielders, and a front three.
Within that, the balance of Dundee’s threats is interesting. Cameron Congreve is listed on the right of the attacking line-up and has six league assists, which hints at a side that can create despite a low-scoring return overall. Yan Dhanda is included in midfield and is joint-top scorer for Dundee in the league with two goals, underlining how their goals have been spread thinly rather than funnelled through one obvious finisher. Up top, Ashley Hay and Tony Yogane are there to turn the platform into end product, with Dundee’s wider style of play suggesting plenty of deliveries and second-phase opportunities in and around the box.
Kilmarnock’s possible XI is Oluwayemi; Brown, Mayo, Deas, Thompson; Lyons, Polworth, Kiltie; John-Jules, Watson, Anderson. That looks like a back four, a midfield three and a front three, too, with David Watson listed as part of the attacking trio despite being shown elsewhere as an attacking midfielder. That blend can suit a side that wants to press at moments and break at pace, especially given Kilmarnock are tagged as strong on counter attacks and strong at creating scoring chances.
The obvious weak spots are sitting in plain sight. Dundee are flagged as weak defending down the wings, weak against through balls, weak defending counter attacks, and weak defending set pieces. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, are weak defending set pieces and weak defending down the wings, with a very weak mark against through-ball attacks. In other words: both teams have potential ways to hurt the other in exactly the zones where they don’t like defending.
How the Match Could Be Played
Start with the footballing truth neither side can dodge: they don’t keep the ball much. Dundee average 38.0% possession in the league; Kilmarnock are at 39.0%. That isn’t automatically a problem, but it shapes everything about how a match begins. If neither team is naturally set up to dominate the ball, the early phases often become about winning territory and making sure your mistakes don’t happen in the wrong postcode.
Dundee’s style points to a plan built on width, long balls and long shots, with a particular tilt towards attacking down the right. In practice, that can mean quick switches to the flank, early crosses, and an emphasis on winning aerial duels to keep attacks alive. Luke Graham’s 3.9 aerials won per league match stands out in that context: it’s not just “defending headers”, it’s a marker for how Dundee might want to compete in this game — make it physical, make it scrappy, and make every clearance contested rather than clean.
Kilmarnock’s style description is almost a mirror in places: width, long balls, crosses often, a lot of shots. Where they differ is the emphasis on counter attacks as a listed strength, and a weakness around finishing scoring chances. That combination can produce a familiar pattern: good work to get into threatening areas, followed by a final action that doesn’t quite match the build-up. If that happens here, it also plays into Dundee’s profile, because Dundee are weak defending counter attacks and very weak defending against skilful players. Give Kilmarnock enough transitions and enough 1v1s in wide areas, and Dundee may end up backpedalling.
The midfield battle could be less about patient passing and more about who sets the tempo for the second ball. Dundee’s midfield trio in the possible XI — Hamilton, Dhanda, Jones — suggests a group that can cover ground, while Kilmarnock’s Lyons, Polworth and Kiltie hints at a mix of ball use and industry. With both teams described as weak at keeping possession, pressing cues may be simple: jump on loose touches, squeeze on backwards passes, and turn every 50/50 into a chance to attack before the opponent’s shape resets.
There’s a particular tactical tension around the wings. Both teams are weak at defending attacks down the wings, and both teams want to play with width. That can create a match of duelling overloads: full-backs dragged out, wide forwards trying to isolate their man, and central defenders stepping into uncomfortable spaces to help. Dundee’s likely front three includes Congreve and Yogane either side of Hay, which could stretch Kilmarnock’s back line horizontally and open lanes for late arrivals. For Kilmarnock, the presence of John-Jules and Anderson either side of Watson gives them multiple runners to attack channels if Dundee’s offside trap doesn’t land perfectly.
Set pieces may be the unglamorous headline. Dundee are weak defending set pieces. Kilmarnock are weak defending set pieces. In a match between low-scoring sides, that’s not a footnote — it’s a potential shortcut. One good delivery. One poor clearance. One scramble where nobody quite gets the first contact they need. The kind of goal that doesn’t look pretty, but still counts the same.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Dundee’s league record shows 16 goals in 19 matches, with 7.9 shots per game. That matters because it tells you two things at once: Dundee aren’t generating huge volume, and when they do create, it hasn’t consistently turned into goals. The top scorers list underlines the point — their leading league scorers are Ryan Astley, Clark Robertson, Joe Westley and Yan Dhanda, all on two. When defenders and a midfielder share the top line, it often suggests goals are coming from spread moments rather than a steady striker rhythm.
Kilmarnock have 17 league goals from 19 matches and average 10.8 shots per game. That higher shot count aligns with “take a lot of shots”, but their weakness in finishing scoring chances offers a clue as to why the goals total hasn’t climbed further. If they’re shooting more but scoring at a similar rate to Dundee, it hints at wastefulness or lower-quality looks — which matters when you’re travelling and might only get a handful of clean chances.
The passing numbers back the “scrap for control” vibe. Dundee’s pass success is 75.2%; Kilmarnock’s is 71.2%. Neither suggests a side that will calmly pass through pressure for long spells. Instead, you’d expect spells where the ball moves quickly, then stops dead with a foul, a clearance, or a turnover.
The recent match sequences reinforce the thin margins. Dundee’s last six includes a 1–0 win over Falkirk and a 3–1 win over St Mirren, but also 1–0 defeats at Celtic and Motherwell, and a 1–3 home loss to Aberdeen. Kilmarnock’s last six includes scoreless draws with St Mirren and draws with Dundee United and Hearts, but also defeats to Falkirk, Aberdeen and Rangers. The overall pattern is of games that can be tight and decided by moments, rather than extended periods of dominance.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first wave of aerial duels and second balls will set the tone. Dundee are listed as strong in aerial duels, and their style leans on long balls and width. If Graham and Astley can win enough first contacts — or at least make them messy — Dundee can keep the game in Kilmarnock’s half even without long spells of possession.
Kilmarnock’s transitions are the other obvious swing factor. They’re strong on counter attacks, and Dundee are weak defending counter attacks and weak against through balls. If Watson can receive in pockets and spin play quickly into the channels for John-Jules or Anderson, Dundee’s back line could find itself forced into uncomfortable recovery defending.
Set pieces at both ends look like a genuine game-changer. Both sides are weak defending set pieces, and Dundee are also weak defending long shots while Kilmarnock are strong in aerial duels and strong at creating chances. One well-placed free-kick or corner can tilt a match that otherwise gets stuck in midfield skirmishes.
Then there’s the final action question. Kilmarnock’s weakness in finishing scoring chances meets Dundee’s low shot volume and modest goal return. That clash could produce a night where the better approach play doesn’t immediately translate into goals — which, in turn, can increase the pressure and the chance of an error deciding it.
What could go wrong with this read? When both sides prefer direct routes and both are uncomfortable keeping the ball, the match can become unpredictable in ways tactics can’t always control. A deflection, a misjudged offside step, or a single individual error can hijack the pattern, especially with both teams carrying clear vulnerabilities in defensive phases.
Best Bet for Dundee vs Kilmarnock
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Under 2.5 Goals
The primary justification for a low-scoring encounter lies in the persistent struggle both sides face when trying to convert territory into tangible results. Dundee have managed just 16 goals in their 19 league fixtures this season, while Kilmarnock have fared only slightly better with 17 goals from the same number of games. These figures suggest a fundamental lack of clinical finishing that often defines matches between teams in the lower reaches of the table.
Furthermore, Dundee’s offensive output is notably limited in terms of volume, averaging only 7.9 shots per match. While Kilmarnock produce a higher volume at 10.8 shots per game, they are explicitly noted for a weakness in finishing scoring chances. This combination typically leads to games where a significant amount of the play happens in the final third without testing the goalkeeper. The recent form of both clubs reinforces this pattern; Dundee’s latest outing was a narrow 1-0 victory over Falkirk, while Kilmarnock’s most recent result was a goalless draw against St Mirren.
Tactically, both teams rely heavily on long balls and crosses rather than intricate play through the middle. With Dundee averaging 38.0% possession and Kilmarnock at 39.0%, the match is likely to be defined by a lack of rhythm and a high frequency of turnovers. When two teams with passing success rates of 75.2% and 71.2% meet, the game often descends into a series of aerial duels and second-ball scrambles. Historical data also supports a tight affair, as the most recent meeting between these two earlier in the season ended in a 0-0 draw. Given that both sides are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, a cautious approach is expected, prioritizing defensive stability over expansive attacking.
What could go wrong The main threat to a low-scoring prediction is the mutual defensive frailty on set pieces. Since both Dundee and Kilmarnock are highlighted as weak when defending dead-ball situations, a single well-placed corner or free-kick could lead to a messy opening goal that forces the game to open up prematurely. Additionally, Kilmarnock’s strength in counter-attacking could exploit Dundee’s lack of pace at the back if the hosts commit too many men forward in search of a home win.
Correct score lean: 1-0
The narrow 1-0 victory for Dundee aligns with their status as the home side and their recent success using a similar scoreline against Falkirk. While neither team possesses a prolific goalscorer—evidenced by the fact that Dundee’s leading scorers are tied on just two goals each—home advantage at Dens Park often provides the marginal edge needed in a relegation scrap. Kilmarnock are currently on an 11-match winless run in the league and have struggled significantly on the road. A single moment of quality, perhaps from a set piece or a wide delivery, is likely to decide such a statistically tight encounter.
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