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Will Dundee United’s shot volume and set-piece threat overwhelm Dundee at Tannadice? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Dundee United enter this derby as the form side, unbeaten in their last five league matches. Their historical dominance at Tannadice is significant, having avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 home Premiership meetings with Dundee. The visitors have struggled immensely on their travels this season, failing to win a single away game and failing to score in seven of their last nine on the road. With Dundee United possessing superior metrics in chance creation and set-piece attacking, they are well-positioned to exploit a Dundee defense that concedes nearly two goals per game away from home.
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This selection mirrors the offensive and defensive profiles of both clubs. Dundee United have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last six matches, indicating a preference for controlled, low-scoring games. Dundee’s primary issue is a lack of goals on the road, where they frequently draw blanks. However, the visitors have shown enough resilience to keep games close, often losing by a single goal margin. A tight 1-0 win for the home side reflects the high stakes of a derby where one goal is often enough to decide the points.
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Dundee United vs Dundee Predictions and Best Bets
Dundee United vs Dundee — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on current league positioning.
Dundee United’s strong home derby record and Dundee’s away winless streak make the hosts the clear favorites in the 1X2 market.
Pricing points toward a victory for the hosts, with low-scoring margins being the most statistically probable outcomes.
- Dundee United’s volume backs up their front-foot threat: 28 league goals in 20 matches, built on 13 shots per game despite having only 41.3% possession.
- Dundee’s league profile points to a tougher attacking night: 18 goals in 20 matches with 8.9 shots per game, alongside 38.9% possession and 33 conceded.
- Tannadice has recently favoured the hosts in this fixture: Dundee United are unbeaten in 10 of the last 11 home Premiership games against Dundee and have scored in 15 straight home league meetings.
Offensive Output: Total League Goals
Dundee United have maintained a higher scoring rate throughout the first 20 matches of the campaign compared to their local rivals.
Averaging 1.4 goals per game, the hosts have been reliable finishers at Tannadice.
With 10 fewer goals than United, finding the net has been a greater challenge for the visitors.
Defensive Record: Goals Conceded
Both sides have struggled to keep clean sheets, but the visitors have been breached more frequently on average.
Individual errors have contributed to a defensive record that averages nearly 1.5 goals against per game.
The most porous of the two defenses, conceding 1.65 goals per game across the season so far.
Starting the New Year with a bang, the Scottish Premiership returns on Saturday with the Dundee Derby at Tannadice Park. Dundee United come into it sitting sixth with 25 points, while Dundee arrive ninth on 19, and that gap adds an extra edge to a fixture that never needs much help finding tension.
There’s also a neat little contrast in the way both sides have closed out 2025. Dundee United ended the year with a 3-1 win away to Livingston, and it was framed as a dramatic late victory — the sort of result that can leave a squad walking a touch taller for a week or two. Dundee’s last outing was a 2-1 home win over Kilmarnock, another confidence-booster, and another reminder that this derby rarely follows a neat script.
Tannadice is set for a cold night, with conditions noted at 1°. That doesn’t decide a match on its own, but it does have a way of sharpening it: first contacts feel heavier, loose passes hold up, and every sprint looks just a wee bit more honest. In a derby, that’s usually a feature, not a bug.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Dundee United’s possible starting line-up is listed as: Richards; Sevelj, Keresztes, Graham; Naamo, Sibbald, Stephenson, Ferry; Sapsford, Fatah, Watters. The names and the shape point towards a three at the back, wing-backs providing the width, and three attackers across the front line. It’s a set-up that can look compact and aggressive without the ball, then spring forward quickly when the first pass sticks.
There is also a clear selection complication: Dario Naamo is listed as having “No Eligibility”. If that holds, it would directly affect how Dundee United build their right side, because he’s included in the possible XI and appears suited to a defensive role. The rest of that unit has clear markers of responsibility. Krisztián Keresztes has featured heavily in the league and has also chipped in with goals, while Luca Stephenson’s numbers suggest he’s doing a lot of the heavy lifting in both output and involvement. With Will Ferry named on the left side, there’s a steady platform for width and delivery, and a player who has created chances too.
Dundee’s possible starting line-up is: McCracken; Wright, Koumetio, Graham, Astley; Hamilton, Dhanda, Jones; Congreve, Yogane, (with the final forward name not shown in the line-up string provided). That reads like a back four, a three-man midfield, and a three behind a striker — or a flexible front line that can shuffle depending on game state. Cameron Congreve stands out in that band for his assist numbers, and Tony Yogane brings a profile that fits a wide role, while Yan Dhanda’s position suggests he can link phases.
There’s one explicit availability issue on Dundee United’s side too: Isaac Pappoe is listed as injured with a knee issue until 05.01.2026. Whether or not he was ever expected to start, it narrows options in midfield.
How the Match Could Be Played
The tactical feel starts with how Dundee United tend to play. Their style points towards attacking through the middle, taking a lot of shots, using long balls, attempting crosses often, and playing in their own half. That combination is telling. It hints at a side that doesn’t mind defending a little deeper, then using direct routes to get into the final third quickly. In a derby, that can be a pretty effective way of avoiding the messy middle where emotions and tackles pile up.
The strengths attached to Dundee United reinforce that picture: creating scoring chances is rated very strong, stealing the ball from the opposition is very strong, counter attacks are strong, and attacking set pieces are strong. Put that together and you can see the storyline: win it, move it early, and get bodies into the box before Dundee can reset.
If Dundee line up with a back four, the wide zones become the obvious battleground against Dundee United’s wing-backs. Ferry’s side in particular looks like a natural platform for territory and delivery, and if Dundee United are happy to cross often, they’ll want repeated access to those wide corridors. Dundee’s listed weaknesses include defending against attacks down the wings and defending set pieces, and that pairing matters here: if Dundee United can keep forcing wide defending actions, it can lead to corners and free-kicks, and Dundee United have “attacking set pieces” as a strength.
Dundee, for their part, have their own stylistic clues: long balls, playing with width, attacking down the right, and taking long shots. Interestingly, they are also described as non-aggressive and playing in their own half, which suggests they may be comfortable sitting off and trying to pick their moments rather than pressing wildly from the front. That could create a match where both teams are, at times, happy without the ball — and the game is decided by who uses their transitions better rather than who dominates possession.
That’s where individual match-ups begin to matter. Dundee United’s ability to steal the ball from the opposition could be a big swing factor against a Dundee side that has “keeping possession of the ball” marked as a weakness. If Dundee United’s midfield line can step in at the right time — without over-committing — it can create those quick attacks that suit Sapsford and Fatah. But the risk is equally plain: Dundee United are flagged as very weak at protecting the lead, very weak at defending against long shots, and very weak at avoiding individual errors. In a derby, those are the kind of warning lights you notice even if you’d rather not.
Dundee also have “creating long shot opportunities” as a strength, which aligns perfectly with that vulnerability. If Dundee can move the ball into shooting zones outside the box — especially through Dhanda or Jones arriving into space — it sets up a direct test of one team’s strength against the other’s weakness. And if Dundee United are playing in their own half for spells, those long-shot lanes can open up when second balls drop into central areas.
There’s also a set-piece theme with both sides. Dundee United are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks and strong at attacking set pieces. Dundee are weak defending set pieces. If the derby turns into a stop-start contest — and they often do — those moments can become the cleanest route to goal, especially on a cold night when rhythm is harder to find.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Dundee United’s league output suggests a side that can create enough volume to hurt opponents. They’ve scored 28 goals in 20 Premiership matches, and they take 13 shots per game. That matters because it supports the idea of Dundee United being comfortable taking aim regularly rather than waiting for a perfect opening — and it fits with their stated tendency to take a lot of shots.
The possession number is the counterpoint: 41.3% in the league with a 70.7% pass success. That low share of the ball reinforces the idea that Dundee United don’t need long spells of possession to be dangerous. It also hints at why “keeping possession of the ball” shows up as a weakness in their profile: they can be effective without the ball, but it might not be pretty when they try to slow the game down.
Dundee’s numbers lean even further into a low-possession identity. They have 38.9% possession and an 8.9 shots-per-game average in the league, with 18 goals scored across 20 matches. That shot volume is notably lower than Dundee United’s, and it suggests Dundee may need to be sharper with the chances they do create — or make their moments count through set plays, long shots, or transitions rather than sustained pressure.
The table line adds context too. Dundee United are sixth with 25 points from 20 games, scoring 28 and conceding 29, while Dundee are ninth with 19 points from 20 games, scoring 18 and conceding 33. That “conceded 33” piece matters for the tactical story because it supports why Dundee United might fancy regular deliveries and second-phase pressure: if you can keep asking defensive questions, Dundee have shown they’ve shipped goals.
There’s also an interesting derby-specific run noted: Dundee United are unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 home Premiership matches against Dundee, and they’ve scored at least once in each of their last 15 home league matches against Dundee. Whatever the reasons behind that pattern, it points to a fixture that has tended to give Dundee United a foothold at home — and it sets a baseline expectation that Dundee will likely have to deal with sustained home threat at some point.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the wide duel. Dundee’s tendency to attack down the right meets Dundee United’s likely wing-back structure, and whichever side wins the outside channels could control where the game is played. If Dundee United can pin Dundee’s full-backs deep and turn it into a crossing and second-ball match, they’ll be leaning into their strengths. If Dundee can use width to escape pressure and create shooting chances from the edge of the box, they’ll be poking directly at a known soft spot.
The second moment is the “messy minute” after turnovers. Dundee United’s ability to steal the ball from the opposition is rated very strong, and a derby is usually full of loose touches and rushed decisions. If Dundee United win it in midfield and break quickly, Sapsford and Fatah look well-placed to profit. If Dundee ride those moments and turn them into long-shot opportunities, Dundee United’s issues defending long shots come into play.
The third moment is set pieces — not just corners, but direct free kicks too. Dundee United are rated very strong at shooting from direct free kicks and strong attacking set pieces, while Dundee are weak defending set pieces. That combination can turn a single foul in a silly area into a huge chance, and it could shape how both teams defend: one side wary of giving away cheap restarts, the other side happy to make the pitch feel smaller and more tense.
What could go wrong with this read? A derby can flip on something that doesn’t show up in any neat tactical plan: one individual error, one scrappy clearance that falls kindly, or one moment where a long shot takes a nick and changes the angle. Dundee United’s profile includes a warning about individual errors, and Dundee’s style includes long shots. Fine margins love a derby. They also love the cold.
Best Bet for Dundee United vs Dundee
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Dundee United to win
The case for a home victory in the Dundee derby is built on a clear divergence in form and historical dominance at Tannadice Park. Dundee United enter the new year in a resilient mood, having navigated their last five league matches without defeat. This steady accumulation of points has seen them climb to sixth in the Premiership table, creating a six-point cushion over their local rivals. Their recent 3-1 away victory against Livingston serves as a perfect springboard for this fixture, showcasing an ability to find the net multiple times even in tight league contests.
Historical patterns heavily favor the hosts in this particular setting. Dundee United are unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 home Premiership matches against Dundee. Perhaps more significantly, they have maintained a scoring record against the visitors at Tannadice that spans 15 consecutive home league meetings. Given that Dundee United average 13 shots per game and possess a “very strong” rating for creating scoring chances, they are well-equipped to test a Dundee defense that has conceded 33 goals in 20 matches this term.
Conversely, Dundee’s struggles away from Dens Park have become a defining feature of their campaign. They are yet to win a league game on the road this season, and their scoring record in away fixtures is particularly concerning, with the side failing to find the back of the net in seven of their last nine outings as the visiting team. While they did secure a 2-1 win over Kilmarnock recently, that result came on home soil; on the road, they have lost seven of their last eight.
Tactically, the match-up suits the home side’s directness. Dundee United are effective at stealing the ball from the opposition and launching rapid counter-attacks, a strategy that plays directly into Dundee’s “weakness” in maintaining possession and defending transitions. With the visitors also showing vulnerability at defending set pieces—an area where Dundee United are statistically strong—the hosts have multiple clear paths to victory.
What could go wrong
The unpredictable nature of a derby is the primary risk, as form can often be secondary to the high emotional stakes. Dundee United have shown a “very weak” ability to avoid individual errors and protect leads, meaning even a dominant performance could be undermined by a single lapse in concentration. Additionally, Dundee possess a “strong” ability to create long-shot opportunities, and if the game remains tight, a single moment of individual brilliance from outside the area could frustrate the hosts and force a stalemate.
Correct score lean
Dundee United 1-0 Dundee
A narrow 1-0 victory for the home side aligns with the statistical trends governing both teams’ recent outputs. While Dundee United are the favorites, four of their last six Premiership matches have featured under 2.5 goals, suggesting a trend toward tighter, lower-scoring affairs rather than high-scoring blowouts. Dundee’s offensive struggles on the road are well-documented, having failed to score in the vast majority of their recent away trips. However, they are rarely completely blown away, having lost three league games this season by a single goal. A solitary strike, potentially from a set-piece where the hosts hold a significant advantage, is the most logical separator.
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