Hearts vs Hibernian Predictions: Edinburgh Derby League Cup Preview. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Hearts’ unbeaten home run, strong attacking output, and recent derby dominance support backing them to win with Both Teams to Score. Their defensive vulnerabilities and Hibernian’s higher dangerous attacks and possession suggest the visitors can score despite Hearts’ superiority, making this combined market a balanced reflection of the match dynamics.
Hearts’ strong attack and recent derby scoring support a 2-1 win, while Hibernian’s defensive struggles and moderate scoring justify an away goal. The prediction balances Hearts’ unbeaten home run with Hibernian’s ability to threaten despite defensive lapses.
Hearts and Hibernian meet at Tynecastle Park on Sunday, 1 November 2026, with a place in the Scottish League Cup final at stake.
Hearts vs Hibernian — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Hearts’ recent derby wins and Hibernian’s scoring ability support this combined outcome.
Hearts’ recent derby wins and Hibernian’s scoring ability support this combined outcome.
Recent derbies have featured multiple goals, supporting an over 2.5 goals market.
Hearts’ scoring and Hibernian’s defensive vulnerability support a 2-1 scoreline.
Three Punchy Stats
- Three straight derby victories: Hearts have beaten Hibernian in their last three meetings, scoring six goals and conceding two.
- Six matches without victory: Hibernian have recorded two draws and four defeats in their last six outings.
- Seven unbeaten in the League Cup: Hearts have avoided defeat in their last seven matches in the competition, underlining their strong cup pedigree.
Head-to-Head Derby Wins
Recent attacking records for Hearts and Hibernian are shown below.
Defensive Records
Recent defensive records for Hearts and Hibernian are shown below.
The Edinburgh rivals approach this semi-final in contrasting form, with Hearts carrying an impressive recent derby record and Hibernian struggling to arrest a six-match winless run.
Hearts have won the last three meetings between the sides, including September's convincing 3-1 victory at Hibernian. Their stronger attacking numbers, unbeaten home sequence and encouraging performance against Rangers suggest they are well positioned to extend that dominance.
However, Hearts' defensive vulnerabilities offer Hibernian a route into the contest, particularly in a derby where momentum can shift quickly.
Hearts building momentum despite defensive concerns
Hearts enter the semi-final following a 2-2 draw against Rangers and a 2-0 victory away to Motherwell. Those results represent a welcome response to their heavy 7-1 defeat against Celtic and a 2-0 European loss to Trabzonspor.
Their home form provides further encouragement. Hearts are unbeaten in their last six home fixtures across all competitions, recording three victories and three draws. That sequence includes wins over St Mirren, Dundee and St Johnstone.
Their attacking output has been particularly impressive. Hearts have scored 39 goals in 21 matches, averaging 1.86 per game, while registering 14.81 shots per fixture.
The League Cup record is equally compelling. Hearts are unbeaten in seven consecutive matches in the competition and have won their last three home League Cup fixtures by margins of at least three goals.
Nevertheless, defensive consistency remains an issue. They have conceded 38 goals in 21 matches and kept only four clean sheets, suggesting their attacking superiority does not necessarily guarantee control throughout Sunday's encounter.
Hibernian searching for a response
Hibernian arrive at Tynecastle without a victory in their previous six matches, having drawn twice and suffered four defeats.
Their recent difficulties include consecutive 2-1 home losses against Celtic and Falkirk, alongside a 1-0 defeat at Dundee United. Wednesday's 1-1 draw against St Mirren halted their losing sequence but did little to resolve concerns about their attacking effectiveness.
Hibernian have scored 23 goals in 19 matches, averaging 1.21 per game, compared with Hearts' 1.86.
Interestingly, Hibs average more dangerous attacks per fixture, recording 56.21 against Hearts' 49.19. They also hold a narrow advantage in average possession, with 52% compared with 50%.
Those figures suggest Hibernian can establish promising attacking positions, but converting that activity into decisive chances and goals remains the greater challenge.
Their away record offers some encouragement, with two wins, two draws and two defeats across their last six trips. However, overcoming their Edinburgh rivals will require greater defensive discipline than they have demonstrated recently.
Recent derby history favours Hearts
Hearts have won four of the last six Edinburgh derbies, with Hibernian claiming the other two.
Their three most recent victories came by 3-1, 2-1 and 1-0 scorelines, demonstrating an ability to prevail in both open encounters and tighter contests.
September's 3-1 success was particularly significant, with Hearts establishing a two-goal half-time advantage before completing a convincing away victory.
Yet Hibernian have scored in each of the last two meetings, reinforcing the possibility of another competitive contest despite their current difficulties.
Hearts vs Hibernian prediction: 2-1
Hearts possess the stronger recent results, superior scoring record and more convincing derby form. Their unbeaten home sequence also strengthens their prospects of reaching the final.
Hibernian's attacking activity suggests they could create opportunities, particularly against a Hearts defence that has conceded regularly.
A 2-1 Hearts victory therefore emerges as a plausible outcome, reflecting the hosts' attacking advantage while acknowledging Hibernian's capacity to contribute a goal.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Hearts to win and Both Teams to Score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Hearts vs Hibernian 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Hearts to win and Both Teams to Score @ 13/5
Hearts arrive at Tynecastle boasting a seven-match unbeaten streak in the Scottish League Cup and a run of three consecutive Edinburgh derby victories. Their superior attacking output provides a clear foundation for a home victory. The hosts average 1.86 goals per game across 21 matches, backed by 14.81 shots per fixture, and have avoided defeat in their last six home matches across all competitions. That sequence, combined with Hibernian’s current six-match winless run, gives the match-winner element of this selection strong factual support.
However, Hearts’ defensive numbers demonstrate why backing them to win alongside Both Teams to Score offers a more complete reflection of the matchup. Despite their home superiority, Hearts have conceded 38 goals in 21 matches, recording only four clean sheets. Hibernian, meanwhile, demonstrate the capacity to threaten a vulnerable backline. The visitors average more dangerous attacks per fixture (56.21) than Hearts (49.19) and edge the average possession statistics with 52%. Those metrics suggest Hibernian can sustain enough forward activity to breach a defence that rarely prevents goals entirely.
The recent derby history directly reinforces this combined outcome. Although Hearts won the September meeting 3-1 and have dominated the recent head-to-head record, Hibernian successfully registered a goal in both of the last two encounters. Backing a home victory and Both Teams to Score acknowledges Hearts’ proven ability to outscore their local rivals, while appropriately weighting the visitors’ sustained territorial threat and the hosts’ clear defensive fragility.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Hearts have won their last three derbies including a 3-1 win in September.
- Hearts average 1.86 goals per match and are unbeaten in six home games.
- Hearts conceded 38 goals in 21 matches with only four clean sheets.
Risk Factor: The selection fails if Hearts keep a clean sheet or Hibernian secure a resolute away draw.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Unbeaten in seven League Cup matches; last three home wins by three-goal margins.
Winless in six matches with four defeats, including 2-1 losses to Celtic and Falkirk.
⚔️ Pick 2: Hearts vs Hibernian 2-1 @ 7/1
Supporting a 2-1 home victory requires evidence that Hearts can score at least twice while Hibernian convert exactly one opportunity. The hosts’ attacking metrics justify the requirement for multiple goals. Hearts average 1.86 goals per match and generate 14.81 shots per fixture, underlining a sustained attacking threat at Tynecastle. They recently scored three times against Hibernian in September and have registered two or more goals in consecutive recent Edinburgh derby victories. Furthermore, Hibernian arrive having conceded twice in consecutive recent home defeats against Celtic and Falkirk, highlighting vulnerability against capable attacking units.
For the away side, registering exactly one goal aligns with their moderate attacking returns and Hearts’ defensive limitations. Hibernian average 1.21 goals per match, suggesting they are capable of scoring without being prolific. Their underlying activity—averaging 56.21 dangerous attacks per game and holding 52% average possession—indicates they can establish threatening positions. With Hearts managing just four clean sheets across 21 fixtures and conceding 38 times, an away goal represents a highly credible element of this scoreline prediction.
While Hearts have demonstrated the ability to secure heavier victories, such as their three recent home League Cup ties won by three-goal margins, derbies often produce narrower margins of victory. A 2-1 scoreline respects the hosts’ unbeaten home sequence and superior finishing, whilst acknowledging that Hibernian’s territorial activity and Hearts’ consistent defensive lapses make a home clean sheet an unlikely proposition. The primary risk to this exact scoreline is Hearts extending their advantage to a third goal, mirroring September’s encounter.
Risk Factor: Exact score bets are fragile; an extra goal or no Hibernian goal would lose this pick.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Match Odds and Both Teams to Score market require?
Hearts must win and Hibernian must score at least one goal in normal time.
How does the Over 2.5 Goals market settle?
It wins if three or more goals are scored during normal time by either team.
What happens if the match finishes 1-1 for the 2-1 correct score prediction?
The correct score bet loses as the exact 2-1 scoreline is required.
Why is Hearts’ home form relevant to these predictions?
Hearts are unbeaten in their last six home matches and have strong cup form.
How does Hibernian’s possession average affect the Both Teams to Score market?
Hibernian's 52% possession and attack numbers suggest they can score against Hearts.
Can the Match Odds market win if the game goes to extra time?
No, the market settles on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
