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Can Neom turn Christmas control into points — or will Al Najma finally find a foothold? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Neom SC are heavy favorites against a bottom-placed Al Najma side that has failed to win any of its first nine matches. However, Neom's defensive record is far from perfect; they have conceded 14 goals and seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games. Al Najma, despite their struggles, have found the net in 64% of their outings. Given Neom’s offensive depth with Lacazette and Benrahma, a home win is the expected outcome, but the historical data points toward a game where both defenses are likely to be breached.
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This scoreline aligns with the high frequency of both teams scoring in Neom’s matches while acknowledging their status as the superior team. Neom’s average of 1.44 goals per match suggests they have the quality to score twice against the league’s worst defense, which concedes over two goals per game. Simultaneously, Neom’s tendency to allow opportunities—conceding 1.56 goals per game—gives Al Najma a strong chance of finding a single goal. A competitive 2-1 victory for the home side captures the tactical disparity while respecting the current statistical trends.
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Neom SC vs Al Najma Predictions and Best Bets
Neom SC vs Al Najma — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Neom’s league position and Al Najma’s winless start to the season make the hosts heavy favorites in the 1X2 market.
With Neom seeing both teams score in 80% of recent games, the market suggests Al Najma could find the net despite their struggles.
- Shot volume and pressure: Neom have taken 115 shots at 11.5 per game, while Al Najma have 96 at 8.73, shaping a matchup where territory and repeat attacks could decide it.
- Goals at both ends: Neom’s matches show both teams scoring in 8 of 10 (80%), and Al Najma’s in 7 of 11 (64%), pointing to a contest where one moment of transition can bite.
- Table and goals snapshot: Neom are eighth with 14 points and a 13–14 goals record after nine, while Al Najma are 18th with one point and a 7–20 goals record.
Attacking Volume: Total Shots Attempted
A look at the sheer quantity of offensive pressure applied across the season so far.
Averaging 11.5 shots per match, Neom consistently find ways to test opposing keepers.
With 8.73 shots per game, the visitors struggle to generate consistent offensive rhythm.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded
Total goals breached in the defensive line across the opening 9 fixtures.
Despite their league position, Neom average over 1.5 goals conceded per match.
The league’s worst defensive record, allowing an average of 2.22 goals per game.
While most leagues are tucking into a festive pause, the Saudi Pro League keeps the lights on, and Christmas Day brings a meeting with a proper contrast in mood. Neom SC, sitting eighth with 14 points, welcome bottom side Al Najma, who have just one point from nine league games. It’s Round 10, staged at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, and it lands as a chance for Neom to keep nudging their first top-flight campaign in the right direction.
For Al Najma, the framing is simpler and harsher: nine played, no wins, and a thin margin for error that has already been tested too many times. Neom haven’t been perfect at home either — two defeats in their last four there tells you this isn’t a free pass — but the league table and the recent results say they arrive with more tools, more punch, and more ways to win a game of football.
What makes this one interesting isn’t just the gap between eighth and 18th. It’s the way both sides’ recent matches have tended to open up: goals at both ends have been a theme, and the game-state swings can come quickly. On a holiday fixture list, that’s not a bad promise.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Neom SC’s possible XI has a familiar shape to it: Luís Maximiano in goal; a back four of Khalifah Al Dawsari, Nathan Zeze, Abdulmalik Al Oyayari and Faris Abdi; then a midfield line featuring Abdulaziz Noor, Saïd Benrahma, Amadou Koné and Abdoulaye Doucouré; with Alexandre Lacazette partnered by Saïmon Bouabré up top.
That selection reads like a side trying to control games with a solid base and enough craft between the lines to keep feeding a front pair. Benrahma and Doucouré, in particular, hint at a plan built around ball security and clever positioning in the inside channels, while Lacazette gives them a natural focal point for combination play and penalty-box presence.
There is also an availability cloud: Abbas Al-Hassan is listed as out with a cruciate ligament tear until 16.08.2026, while Amadou Koné is marked with an unknown injury, and Luciano Rodríguez Rosales with muscle fatigue. Salem Al Faraj is also listed as out with a cruciate ligament tear. If Koné and Rodríguez are absent, Neom’s midfield balance and their depth of forward options can look very different, especially if they’ve built match patterns around those profiles.
Al Najma’s possible XI begins with Waled Al-Enazi in goal, and the names included suggest a back three featuring Samir, Nasser Al-Haleel and an Al-Shammari. Ahead of that, the selection lists Vitor Vargas, Rajeh Altulayhi, an Al-Shammeri, Deybi Flores and Fahad Al Abdulrazzaq, with Ali Jasim as the named attacker.
Even without overcomplicating it, that reads like a side set up to protect central areas first, then break into space when the moment is right — especially if Vargas and Flores are tasked with getting up and down the sides.
How the Match Could Be Played
Neom’s likely starting point is control through structure. With a back four and a midfield line packed with experience, they can build patiently, circulate, and look for the moment to punch a pass into Lacazette’s feet or into the lane for Bouabré to run beyond. If Benrahma starts from a wide or half-space role, the temptation will be to drift inside early — not just to create, but to overload the central pocket and force Al Najma’s midfield to collapse.
That’s where Doucouré matters. If he plays as the stabiliser, Neom can commit an extra body forward without feeling like every turnover is an emergency. It also opens the door for full-backs to step higher, stretching Al Najma’s defensive line horizontally. Against a back three, those wide areas can become the pressure points: wing-back pinned deep, outside centre-back dragged wide, and suddenly the gaps appear between defenders for cut-backs or late arrivals.
Al Najma’s best route is likely to keep the middle compact and make Neom go around them. With Flores listed as a defensive midfielder and also possible to appear in a wider role depending on how they shuffle, there’s a chance they try to form a box in front of the defence and deny Lacazette clean touches between the lines. The priority will be second balls and transitions: get it into Jasim early, win territory, and try to make Neom defend facing their own goal.
Pressing cues will be crucial. If Neom press high, they’ll want to trigger on backward passes into Al Najma’s back line, using the front two to block central outlets and force play wide. That can be effective — but only if the midfield line steps up together. If there’s hesitation, especially if key midfielders are missing, Al Najma can sneak out through the sides and suddenly Neom’s centre-backs are being asked to defend bigger spaces.
In possession, Al Najma may not want long spells of patient build-up. Their recent away record points towards games where they’ve had to suffer without much reward, so the pragmatic play is to shorten the pitch: direct passes, early deliveries, and set-piece pressure. Samir and Al-Haleel being named in the defensive unit also suggests they’ll be asked to attack first contacts aggressively and keep the game from becoming a wave.
The most likely tactical battle, then, is Neom trying to turn control into clear chances without getting stung by a counter. If Neom can keep the ball moving quickly enough to shift Al Najma’s block, they’ll create the kind of half-chances that add up. If they get sloppy, they give Al Najma the one thing a struggling side craves: a moment that feels like it changes the story.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table underlines the gap, but the goal numbers show the shape of it. Neom have scored 13 and conceded 14 in nine league games; Al Najma have scored seven and conceded 20. That’s not just a difference in finishing — it’s a difference in how often matches tilt against you when the game breaks open.
There’s also a clear attacking volume edge. Across the matches listed, Neom have taken 115 total shots — 11.5 per game — compared to Al Najma’s 96 at 8.73 per game. That matters because it speaks to territory and pressure: Neom are creating more sequences that end in attempts, which is often the first step to turning control into goals, even if the finishing isn’t always clean.
The ball patterns hint at why. Neom are shown with 54% ball possession and an 86% pass accuracy (3238 accurate passes from 3776 total). Al Najma sit at 47% possession with 83% pass accuracy (3498 accurate from 4207). Neom’s profile reads like a side that can keep the ball well and choose moments to accelerate; Al Najma’s numbers suggest they can move it neatly enough at times, but not necessarily with the same ability to sustain pressure.
And the “both teams to score” theme is hard to ignore: Neom’s recent matches list “both teams scored” at 8 out of 10 (80%), while Al Najma have 7 out of 11 (64%). That’s relevant because it aligns with the likely flow — Neom pushing to impose themselves, but leaving windows for Al Najma to land a punch if they can survive the first wave.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is Neom’s early control: can they establish their rhythm without turning possession into slow, predictable horseshoe passing? If Benrahma and Doucouré can receive under pressure and still play forward, Neom will keep Al Najma penned in and draw fouls, corners, and second-phase attacks.
Then there’s the Lacazette factor. With Bouabré alongside him, Neom can mix it: one drops, one runs; one pins a centre-back, the other attacks the channel. If Al Najma’s back three follow too eagerly, the space in behind becomes the story. If they sit off, Neom will try to work the ball into crossing positions and test the organisation of the box.
For Al Najma, the key swing is whether they can turn defensive survival into meaningful transitions. Ali Jasim is the named attacker in the possible XI; if he can hold it up long enough for Vargas, Flores or the midfield line to join, Al Najma can create the kind of messy, uncomfortable sequences that flip a match on its head — a loose clearance, a second ball, a quick shot, and suddenly the atmosphere changes.
Set-piece themes matter too. Neom have 39 corners across the games listed (3.9 per game), Al Najma 36 (3.27 per game). In a game where one side may spend long spells defending, corners and free-kicks become not just chances, but breathers — and sometimes a route to a goal that doesn’t require open-play dominance.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of ignoring neat narratives. Neom’s home record across their last four shows two defeats, and if they overcommit chasing the game or lose midfield control through absences and reshuffles, Al Najma won’t need many openings to make it awkward. A single error, an early goal, or one untidy transition can turn the tactical plan into a scramble.
Best Bet for Neom SC vs Al Najma
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Neom SC to win and both teams to score
The gap between these two sides in the standings is significant, but the tactical profiles suggest a game that remains active at both ends. Neom SC enter this fixture in eighth place with 14 points, having secured four wins from their opening nine matches. Their offensive output has been consistent, netting 13 goals so far, supported by an average of 11.5 shots per game. With a roster featuring established names like Alexandre Lacazette and Saïd Benrahma, they possess the individual quality to exploit a defensive unit that has struggled for stability. Neom’s ability to maintain 54% possession and an 86% pass accuracy indicates they will likely dictate the tempo and create high-quality chances against a side currently rooted to the bottom of the table.
However, Neom’s defensive record shows they are rarely airtight. They have conceded 14 goals in nine games—one more than they have scored—and have seen both teams find the net in 80% of their recent matches. This trend aligns with Al Najma’s tendency to participate in high-scoring affairs despite their poor winless record. The visitors have managed to score in 64% of their recent outings, including matches against top-tier opposition. While Al Najma have only picked up one point from nine games and have conceded 20 goals, their expected front line featuring Ali Jasim has shown enough spark to suggest they can take advantage of the spaces Neom often leaves when committing bodies forward.
Neom SC have also shown some vulnerability at the King Khalid Sport City Stadium, suffering two defeats in their last four home games. This suggests that while they are the heavy favorites to take all three points, they often do so in matches that remain competitive on the scoresheet. Given that Al Najma’s only point this season came in a recent scoreless draw against Damac, they may have found a slight defensive rhythm, but the sheer volume of pressure Neom exerts—evidenced by 39 corners won this season—should eventually break the visitors down while leaving the door open for a consolation on the break.
What could go wrong The primary risk lies in Neom’s potential selection issues. With key players like Abbas Al-Hassan and Salem Al Faraj sidelined with long-term injuries, and others like Amadou Koné and Luciano Rodríguez facing fitness tests, any further depletion of the midfield could disrupt their ball retention. If Neom fail to convert their early territorial dominance into goals, they may become frustrated, allowing Al Najma to dig in for a low-scoring draw similar to their recent result against Damac.
Correct score lean
2 – 1
A 2-1 scoreline is the most logical outcome when balancing Neom SC’s superior attacking talent against their consistent defensive lapses. Neom average 1.44 goals per game and face an Al Najma side conceding 2.22 goals per game, making at least two home goals highly probable. Conversely, Neom have kept very few clean sheets this season, and the statistical trend of “Both Teams to Score” hitting in 80% of their games strongly suggests the visitors will find the net. This specific result reflects a match where the favorites dominate possession and shot count but allow the basement side a route back into the contest.
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