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Can Al Ittihad snap their skid in style, or will Al Okhdood scrap their way into a survival lifeline? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Al Okhdood have lost their last four away league matches by 2 or more goals. With Al Ittihad averaging over 13 shots per game and holding 61% possession, the hosts possess the shot volume and quality to punish a side conceding 2.14 goals per away trip.
Read Rationale ▾
Al Ittihad are dominant at home with five wins in six, while Al Okhdood struggle to find the net, averaging only 0.78 goals per match. Given the visitors’ defensive unravelling on the road, a comfortable three-goal victory for the heavy favorites aligns with the statistical trends.
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Al Ittihad vs Al Okhdood Predictions and Best Bets
Al Ittihad vs Al Okhdood — William Hill Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on illustrative match analysis for Jan 26.
Pricing indicates significant home dominance, reflecting Al Ittihad’s control and Al Okhdood’s away form struggles.
The market leans toward a high-scoring game given Al Ittihad’s shot volume and Al Okhdood’s defensive gaps.
- Shot volume gap is massive: Al Ittihad average 13.69 shots per game (356 total), while Al Okhdood sit at 7.61 (137 total) — a match-up built around pressure.
- Possession tells the story: Al Ittihad hold 61% of the ball with 89% pass accuracy, while Al Okhdood sit at 42% possession and 80% pass accuracy — two totally different rhythms.
- Away pain is real: Al Okhdood have lost 6 of 8 away league matches, and their last four away league defeats have all been by 2+ goals.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
A significant gap exists in shot production, illustrating the difference in creative output between the two sides.
With 356 total shots this season, the home side consistently tests opposition keepers.
Operating on limited chances, the visitors average nearly half as many attempts as their opponents.
Ball Control: Average Possession %
The possession stats highlight a clash of styles between total control and a more reactive approach.
High technical security leads to long spells of pressure and 89% pass accuracy.
The visitors typically focus on structure without the ball, aiming to disrupt play.
Monday evening at Alinma Stadium brings a fixture that looks simple on paper — but football rarely stays obedient. Kick-off is 17:30, and Al Ittihad walk out needing a response after back-to-back defeats, sliding to seventh on 27 points from 16 games.
The bigger picture is bruising. Sérgio Conceição has overseen peaks and troughs, including a seven-game winning run across all competitions through November and January, only for it to wobble again with one draw and two defeats in the last three. Al Okhdood arrive 17th with nine points, stuck in the scrap for survival. For Marius Șumudică, this is about staying alive in hostile territory — and daring to believe a night of suffering can still produce something.
Team News & Lineups
Al Ittihad absences
- R. Fernandes (called up to national team)
- M. Shanqeeti (unknown injury)
- S. Al Mousa (broken ankle, out until 06.03.2026)
Al Okhdood absences
- None listed.
Al Ittihad possible starting lineup
Rajkovic; Pereira, Fabinho, Kadesh; Al-Julaydan, Kante, Doumbia, Al-Ghamdi; Diaby, Benzema, Aouar
Al Okhdood possible starting lineup
Samuel; Abd, Assery, Gunter, Al-Rabiei, Al-Salem; Bassogog, Petros, Gul, Pedroza; Kramer
What it means
Al Ittihad’s spine still looks heavyweight: Fabinho and Danilo Pereira give bite, N’Golo Kanté offers legs and control, and Karim Benzema carries the sharp end with 8 league goals. Missing Roger Fernandes removes a wide option, so expect more focus on structured build-up and quick final-third combinations.
Al Okhdood’s shape hints at containment first. With their away record, they’ll need discipline — especially with a side that can box you in for long spells.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Al Ittihad | Al Okhdood |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 17th |
| Points (16 matches) | 27 | 9 |
| Goals for | 29 | 13 |
| Goals against | 20 | 31 |
| Avg shots per game | 13.69 | 7.61 |
| Possession | 61% | 42% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 80% |
| Clean sheets (total) | 7 | 3 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 46 | 47 |
Al Ittihad bring control: ball dominance, cleaner passing, and a far healthier goal difference. Al Okhdood bring survival football: lower possession, fewer shots, and a defensive record that gets uglier on the road. The only comfort for the visitors? Al Ittihad’s recent results have been noisy — and a tense crowd can turn control into impatience.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Al Ittihad’s squeeze: territory, tempo, and the box
This is where Conceição’s side should live: 61% possession, 505.73 passes per game, and a clear edge in attacking volume. Al Ittihad average 93.88 total attacks per match and 52.08 dangerous attacks — the numbers of a team that pins you back and keeps returning to the same doors until one opens.
With Benzema up top, the focus is simple: get him touches in the penalty area and turn pressure into shots, not just corners. Moussa Diaby adds speed and directness, while Houssem Aouar can knit the final pass if Al Okhdood’s block starts to crack.
Al Okhdood’s mission: survive the first wave, then steal moments
Al Okhdood’s away record suggests a team that struggles to absorb repeated pressure. They concede an average of 2.14 goals in away league games, and the trend of four straight away league losses by 2+ goals screams collapses after resistance.
So the first battle is psychological: can they stay intact through the opening hour? Their own attacking numbers are thin — 0.78 goals per game across 18 matches in the broader set, and just 7.61 shots per game — so they can’t afford to waste the rare moments they do get.
Where the game can flip
Al Ittihad have shown they can keep it tight at home — their recent home run includes five wins from six — but the warning sign is obvious: if they dominate without scoring, frustration brings risk. That’s when a low-possession side starts to nick set pieces, slow the tempo, and drag the match into scraps and second balls.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early incision vs early panic: Al Ittihad’s average first goal time is 42’. If it stays level beyond that, the noise rises and decision-making gets rushed.
- Discipline in the danger zones: Al Okhdood average 2.61 yellow cards per game. Too many cheap fouls invites pressure and breaks any rhythm they build.
- The away collapse line: Al Okhdood’s run of four away league defeats by 2+ goals is a warning — once they fall behind, the shape can unravel fast.
What could go wrong?
Al Ittihad’s recent form wobble is the trap. Two defeats on the spin can turn a dominant performance into a tense one if the first chance doesn’t go in. For Al Okhdood, the danger is brutal and familiar: absorb too much, for too long, and the legs go — then the clearances stop sticking, the corners keep coming, and one goal quickly becomes two.
Best Bet for Al Ittihad vs Al Okhdood
Can Al Ittihad Snap Their Skid in Style?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Al Ittihad 29 goals; Al Okhdood 13 goals | Back Over 2.5 |
| Defense | Ittihad 7 Clean Sheets; Okhdood 31 Conceded | Home Win to Nil |
| Volume | Ittihad 13.69 shots; Okhdood 7.61 shots | Ittihad Handicap |
| Away Form | Okhdood lost 6 of 8 away; 4 by 2+ goals | Al Ittihad -1.5 |
Al Ittihad -1.5 Asian Handicap
Al Ittihad enter this fixture as the clear statistical giants. Despite a recent wobble in results, the underlying numbers show a team that completely dominates territory and shot volume. They maintain an average of 61% possession and complete 505.73 passes per game at an elite 89% accuracy rate. This allows them to pin opponents in their own half for sustained periods, generating 93.88 total attacks per match.
The most compelling argument for a multi-goal victory lies in Al Okhdood’s defensive fragility on the road. They have lost six of their eight away league matches this season. Crucially, their last four away league defeats have all been by a margin of two or more goals. This indicates a pattern of collapse; once their initial defensive block is breached, they lack the structural discipline to prevent further damage.
Al Ittihad’s offensive depth, led by Karim Benzema’s eight league goals, is perfectly positioned to exploit this. Even without Roger Fernandes, the presence of Moussa Diaby and Houssem Aouar ensures Al Ittihad can attack with both speed and technical precision. They average nearly 14 shots per game compared to Al Okhdood’s 7.61, representing a massive gap in scoring opportunities.
Furthermore, Al Ittihad are strong at home, having won five of their last six matches at Alinma Stadium. Facing a side that concedes 2.14 goals per away game while only scoring 0.78 goals per match overall makes a comfortable home victory the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong?
Al Ittihad have lost two games in a row, which can damage confidence and lead to snatching at chances. If Al Okhdood can survive beyond Al Ittihad’s average first goal time of 42 minutes, the home crowd may become impatient, creating a tense atmosphere that favors the underdog’s survival tactics.
Correct Score Lean
Al Ittihad 3-0 Al Okhdood
This scoreline reflects the vast disparity in shot volume and defensive records. Al Ittihad have kept seven clean sheets this season, while Al Okhdood struggle significantly for goals, averaging fewer than one per game. Given that Al Okhdood’s recent away losses consistently see them concede multiple goals, and Al Ittihad create over 52 dangerous attacks per match, a 3-0 result is a highly probable representation of the gap in quality between 7th and 17th.
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