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Can Ronaldo’s chasers derail the league leaders at Kingdom Arena? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Al-Nassr have scored in 47 straight league games, while Al-Hilal average nearly 18 shots per game. The absence of Yassine Bounou makes the leaders' defense vulnerable.
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Both sides are statistically matched in shots, possession, and goals conceded. Al-Nassr's historical success at this venue suggests they can halt Al-Hilal’s winning run in a shootout.
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Al-Hilal vs Al-Nassr Predictions and Best Bets
Al-Hilal vs Al-Nassr — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot featuring illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds for the Riyadh derby.
Current pricing highlights Al-Hilal as the side with momentum, though Al-Nassr remain a significant threat in this Riyadh derby.
High shot volumes from both Al-Hilal (17.86/gm) and Al-Nassr (17.91/gm) strongly suggest a high-scoring encounter.
- Relentless leaders: Al-Hilal arrive on 10 straight league wins and 18 consecutive victories overall, turning every fixture into a stress test for whoever stands in front of them.
- Everyone scores, always: Al-Nassr have scored in 47 straight Professional League matches, and both teams have scored in 57% of their recent listed matches — goals feel baked into the drama.
- Shot-for-shot chaos: This isn’t a low-volume chess match — Al-Hilal average 17.86 shots per game and Al-Nassr 17.91, with corners close too (7.09 v 6.57 per game).
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
Both Riyadh giants operate with near-identical attacking aggression, prioritizing high shot counts to pressure the opposition.
Their relentless pressure has resulted in 35 goals so far, averaging nearly 18 attempts every 90 minutes.
Marginally out-shooting the leaders, Al-Nassr’s offensive consistency is a key pillar of their title challenge.
Set-Piece Pressure: Corners Earned
High corner numbers reflect sustained pressure and territorial dominance, often leading to crucial dead-ball opportunities.
Al-Hilal’s ability to pin opponents back results in a high volume of set-piece situations.
Al-Nassr follow closely, ensuring they remain dangerous through both open play and set-piece frequency.
The title race has a pulse, and this is the fixture that makes it thump. Al-Hilal, under Simone Inzaghi, can move seven points clear at the top on Monday night when they welcome Al-Nassr, led by Jorge Jesus, to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is 17:30, and the stakes are immediate: first v second, Riyadh derby energy, and a table that can tilt.
Al-Hilal are flying — 10 straight league wins, 18 in a row across all competitions — while Al-Nassr have wobbled recently, losing two of the last three to slip four points back. The twist? Al-Nassr were 3-1 winners in this exact fixture last season. Unfinished business, served hot.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Al-Hilal: Yassine Bounou is called up to the national team (until 19/01/2026).
- Al-Nassr: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Al-Hilal – possible starting XI
- Al-Rubaie
- Al Yami, Tambakti, Akcicek, N Al-Dawsari
- Milinkovic-Savic, Ruben Neves, Kanno
- Malcolm, Darwin Nunez, S Al-Dawsari
Al-Nassr – possible starting XI
- Al-Aqudi
- Al-Ghannam, Al-Amri, Martinz, Yahya
- Coman, Al-Khaibari, Brozovic, Angelo
- Felix, Ronaldo
What it means
- With Bounou away, Al-Hilal’s build-up and last line of security shifts to Al-Rubaie — and in a derby, even one shaky moment can echo.
- Al-Nassr’s front line screams threat. With Ronaldo and Felix named together, Al-Hilal’s centre-backs won’t get a quiet second to reset.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Al-Hilal | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Points | 35 | 31 |
| Goals for | 35 | 38 |
| Goals against | 12 | 12 |
| Shots per game | 17.86 | 17.91 |
| Possession | 61% | 63% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 87% |
| Corners per game | 7.09 | 6.57 |
| Clean sheets (avg/game) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
This is a heavyweight clash with almost no hiding place. Both sides pump out shots at near-identical rates, both keep the ball, both pass sharply, and both concede 0.82–0.83 goals per game over their listed overall records. The difference sits in momentum and mood: Al-Hilal are rolling like a machine, while Al-Nassr are trying to stabilise after recent slips. But the margins are razor-thin — and the table says it.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
When Al-Hilal have the ball: tempo, territory, and that midfield trio
Al-Hilal’s rhythm is simple: win, repeat, suffocate. They’ve won 10 straight in the league, and you don’t do that without controlling where the match is played. With Milinkovic-Savic and Ruben Neves in the centre, they’ve got power and craft in the same breath — one to bully second balls, the other to snap passes through pressure.
Expect Al-Hilal to push Al-Nassr back with sustained attacks. Their attacking volume is huge (17.86 shots per game) and so is their corner output (7.09 per game). That’s not “moments”. That’s waves.
But there’s a subtle warning: Al-Nassr are averaging 2.04 goalkeeper saves per game compared to Al-Hilal’s 1.68. If this turns into a shot storm, Al-Nassr may be more accustomed to surviving a spell and resetting.
When Al-Nassr have the ball: direct threat with a scorer’s guarantee
Al-Nassr’s biggest flex is brutal consistency in the one place that matters: they’ve scored in 47 straight league matches. Even when results wobble, the goal threat doesn’t disappear.
With Ronaldo and Felix listed as the spearhead, the question becomes spacing: can Al-Hilal keep their defensive line calm, especially with Bounou absent? Al-Nassr don’t need long spells of possession to hurt you. They need one slip, one loose pass, one late run into the box.
The match texture: derby pace, derby punishment
Both teams sit around 61–63% possession and complete almost everything (87–88% pass accuracy). That usually creates control. In a derby, it creates risk: a single pressed mistake becomes a transition, and transitions become chaos.
Key Moments to Watch
- Goalkeeper pressure: With Bounou away, every early cross, every bounce, every back-pass to Al-Rubaie gets louder. Al-Nassr will sense it.
- Set-piece volume: Corners are massive for both sides (7.09 v 6.57 per game). If this gets scrappy, dead balls could decide the mood.
- Discipline line: Both teams show identical red-card rates at 0.09 per game. In a derby, one mistimed tackle can flip the entire storyline.
What could go wrong?
For Al-Hilal, the danger is emotional. They’re the form team and the league leaders — but last season’s 3-1 home defeat proves dominance doesn’t protect you from a derby punch. For Al-Nassr, the risk is obvious: if they start slowly and concede territory, Al-Hilal’s shot volume can turn the pitch into a treadmill. You can’t chase shadows for 90 minutes and expect your legs to stay sharp in the final third.
Best Bet for Al-Hilal vs Al-Nassr
Will Ronaldo’s Chasers Derail the Unstoppable Leaders at Kingdom Arena?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Consistency | Nassr: 47 games in a row; Hilal: 35 goals | Back BTTS |
| Shot Volume | Hilal: 17.86/gm; Nassr: 17.91/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Set-Piece Pressure | Hilal: 7.09 corners; Nassr: 6.57 corners | High Corner Count |
| Defensive Shift | Hilal: Bounou out; Nassr: 0.83 GA/gm | Both Teams to Score |
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Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The statistical profile of this Riyadh derby points toward a high-intensity encounter where goals are a certainty. Al-Hilal enter this fixture as a relentless machine, having secured 18 consecutive victories across all competitions. This dominance is driven by an incredible attacking output, averaging 17.86 shots per game. With a midfield anchored by Ruben Neves and Milinkovic-Savic feeding a frontline of Darwin Nunez and Malcolm, they have the creative engine to breach any defense in the league.
However, Al-Nassr possess a historic scoring record that is impossible to ignore. They have found the net in 47 consecutive Professional League matches. This means that regardless of their recent form—losing two of their last three—their ability to score remains constant. The partnership of Cristiano Ronaldo and Joao Felix provides a clinical edge that will exploit any lack of cohesion in the opposition’s backline.
The most critical factor in this matchup is the absence of Al-Hilal’s star goalkeeper, Yassine Bounou. His departure for national team duty leaves Al-Rubaie between the posts. Bounou’s presence is central to Al-Hilal’s defensive stability; without his elite shot-stopping and organization, the league leaders are significantly more vulnerable. Al-Nassr average nearly 18 shots per game themselves, and they will undoubtedly test the backup keeper early and often.
Furthermore, both teams play with high lines and high possession (61% and 63% respectively). This shared philosophy creates a “shot-for-shot” environment. Because both sides commit so many players forward and generate over 6 corners per game, the match will be played at a breakneck pace with constant transitions. Given that Al-Nassr won this exact fixture 3-1 last season, they know exactly how to punish Al-Hilal at the Kingdom Arena.
What could go wrong? The primary risk is a tactical stalemate where both teams cancel each other out in midfield. If Al-Hilal’s midfield trio manages to completely suffocate Al-Nassr’s service to Ronaldo, the game could become a low-scoring affair. Additionally, if Al-Hilal’s 18-game winning momentum translates into a defensive masterclass despite the goalkeeper change, Al-Nassr’s scoring streak could finally reach its breaking point.
Correct Score Lean
Al-Hilal 2-2 Al-Nassr
This scoreline reflects the near-identical statistical profiles of the two heavyweights. Both teams average roughly 0.82 goals against per game and generate almost identical shot volumes (17.86 vs 17.91). While Al-Hilal are the form side with 10 straight league wins, the absence of Yassine Bounou is a massive equalizer. Al-Nassr’s 47-game scoring streak and their 3-1 victory in this stadium last year prove they have the psychological edge and the personnel to match the leaders goal-for-goal in a high-pressure derby environment.
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