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London Stadium under the lights: can West Ham ride the Tottenham surge, or will Sunderland’s blueprint cut through again? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
West Ham have conceded 44 goals this season and kept only one clean sheet in 24 matches. Sunderland have scoring threats like Brobbey and Le Fée, while Jarrod Bowen leads a West Ham attack that averages over 10 shots per game.
Read Rationale ▾
Four of Sunderland’s last six matches have ended in draws. While West Ham struggle defensively, they are coming off a morale-boosting win. A score draw reflects Sunderland’s recent pattern and West Ham’s ongoing inability to keep clean sheets.
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West Ham vs Sunderland Predictions and Best Bets
West Ham vs Sunderland — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
West Ham are marginal favourites at home, but Sunderland’s organization and high draw rate keep the pricing competitive across all three outcomes.
West Ham’s defensive record (44 conceded) suggests both teams finding the net is a high-probability event based on seasonal data.
- Defensive Alarm Bells: West Ham have conceded 44 league goals in 22 matches, a bruising return that turns every Sunderland transition into a real problem.
- The Draw Machine: Sunderland’s last six include four draws (67%), while West Ham have lost three (50%) — a clash between control and chaos.
- Set-Piece Stress Test: West Ham have only 1 clean sheet in 24 matches, while Sunderland have 7 — one side are constantly firefighting, the other know how to shut doors.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded
A comparison of total league goals conceded highlights the contrasting defensive stability of the two sides heading into this fixture.
Conceding at an average of 2 per game, the backline has faced significant pressure throughout the current campaign.
With almost half the concessions of their opponents, the defensive unit under Le Bris shows significantly higher organization.
Shutouts: Clean Sheets in Last 24 Matches
Visualizing how often each defence completely prevented the opposition from scoring across all recent competitions.
A single clean sheet in 24 games underlines the high frequency of matches where the opponent manages to score.
Sunderland have shut out the opposition in nearly a third of their recent fixtures, showing far superior resilience.
West Ham come into this at the London Stadium with the pressure dial turned up. They’re 18th, sitting five points adrift of safety, and they’ve spent too much of this season chasing games rather than controlling them. The late 2-1 win at Tottenham has finally snapped a losing streak — but it also raises the stakes. Back-to-back league fixtures against Sunderland and then Chelsea leave no room for drifting.
Sunderland arrive as ninth with 33 points, a side that’s dipped slightly but still carries real belief. Régis Le Bris has them organised, bold, and clear in their attacking habits. And there’s unfinished business too: Sunderland thumped West Ham 3-0 back in August. West Ham need a response. Sunderland will fancy repeating the lesson.
Team News & Lineups
West Ham (Manager: Nuno Espírito Santo)
- Injury doubt: Lucas Paquetá (only listed doubt)
- Note: Łukasz Fabiański is listed with a back injury.
Probable XI (4-4-1-1)
Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Todibo, Scarles; Bowen, Soucek, Mateus Fernandes, Summerville; Pablo; Castellanos
What it means
- If Paquetá misses out, West Ham lose a proven source of goals (4) and a natural connector between midfield and the front line.
- The right side still screams danger with Bowen and West Ham’s tendency to attack down the right — but the structure has to protect them when moves break down.
Sunderland (Manager: Régis Le Bris)
- Out: Arthur Masuaku (ankle)
- Out: Bertrand Traoré (knee)
Probable XI (4-2-3-1)
Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Mandava; Xhaka, Sadiki; Hume, Le Fée, Mundle; Brobbey
What it means
- The spine looks stable: Xhaka plus Sadiki as a platform, Le Fée in the creative lane, and Brobbey as the sharp end.
- Sunderland’s “consistent first eleven” feel matters here — especially against a West Ham side that can’t afford another sloppy spell.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League unless stated) | West Ham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 9th |
| Points | 17 | 33 |
| Goals scored (22 apps) | 24 | 23 |
| Goals conceded (22 apps) | 44 | 23 |
| Shots per game | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| Possession | 43.0% | 43.2% |
| Clean sheets (all comps, 24 played) | 1 | 7 |
| Yellow cards (24 played) | 42 | 51 |
West Ham aren’t shot-shy — 10.3 a game — but the real story is what happens the other way. 44 conceded is relegation-zone oxygen for any opponent with clarity in the final third. Sunderland’s numbers are calmer: similar possession, slightly fewer shots, but far more stability and far more clean sheets. That difference shapes the whole fixture: West Ham need to be brave, but not reckless. Sunderland will wait for the moment West Ham overreach.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
West Ham’s tightrope: width, right-side thrust… and risk
West Ham want to play with width, go direct at times, and work the right flank. That puts Jarrod Bowen front and centre — he’s their leading league scorer with 6, and he fires off 2.5 shots per game. If Sunderland allow him to receive early and face goal, the London Stadium will feel it immediately.
But the danger is the hangover from the season as a whole: West Ham’s weaknesses list reads like a warning label. They struggle with keeping possession, protecting a lead, and they’re very weak defending set pieces and attacks down the wings. That’s not abstract. It’s exactly where Sunderland like to live: width, long balls, and repeated entries into wide channels.
The key West Ham connection is the one Sunderland must break. Crysencio Summerville has scored twice in his last two games in all competitions and has been linking well with Bowen. If Summerville can turn and slide passes into that right-sided lane, West Ham can force Sunderland’s back line to shuffle and scramble. If Sunderland cut that supply, West Ham can end up taking shots from poor angles — and with finishing listed as a weakness, that’s a problem.
Sunderland’s plan: platform first, punch second
Le Bris has a clear attacking blueprint and Sunderland showed it in the 2-1 win over Crystal Palace. They’re comfortable playing in their own half, then going long or wide with purpose. That’s a nightmare script for a side that’s already shaky protecting leads and defending wide attacks.
Sunderland’s midfield balance matters. Granit Xhaka brings control and bite — 5 assists in the league, 83.1% passing, and a habit of picking up bookings (4 yellows). He’ll try to dictate tempo, slow West Ham’s momentum, then release runners into the channels. Enzo Le Fée adds craft and goal threat too: 3 goals and 4 assists, and he’s coming off a goal against Palace.
Up top, West Ham’s centre-backs have a direct duel to manage. Brian Brobbey has two goals in his last three league outings and looks sharper in the box. If West Ham’s full-backs get high — or if the midfield gets stretched chasing second balls — Sunderland will aim straight at the spaces either side of the centre-halves.
Where it swings
This feels like a match decided by discipline and spacing rather than possession. Both teams sit around 43–44% possession. So it’s about what you do with the ball when you’ve got it — and how clean you are when you haven’t. West Ham can’t afford loose fouls in dangerous areas given their set-piece issues. Sunderland can’t afford to get pinned back and let Bowen build rhythm.
Key Moments to Watch
- Right-flank supply line: If Summerville → Bowen clicks early, Sunderland’s back line gets dragged and West Ham’s shot volume becomes meaningful.
- Wide defending under stress: West Ham are very weak against wing attacks — Sunderland’s width and long balls are built to test exactly that.
- Set pieces and second balls: West Ham’s set-piece defending is listed as very weak. Sunderland will happily turn territory into corners and chaos.
- Discipline flashpoints: Sunderland have 51 yellows to West Ham’s 42, and Xhaka “often goes into the referee’s book.” The first mistimed tackle near the box could be huge.
What could go wrong?
For West Ham, it’s the same trap: chasing the game too early, stretching the pitch, and opening the wings for Sunderland to attack into. For Sunderland, complacency is the enemy — they’re in the mix near the European places, but their recent run has leaned on draws, and a flat start can hand momentum to a desperate home crowd.
Best Bet for West Ham vs Sunderland
Can West Ham ride the Tottenham surge, or will Sunderland’s blueprint cut through again?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | WHU 44 conceded; SUN 23 | Back BTTS |
| History | SUN won 3-0 in August | Sunderland Double Chance |
| Attack | Bowen (6 gls); Brobbey 2 in 3 | Over 1.5 Goals |
Both Teams to Score
West Ham’s defensive record is an absolute observation of a side in crisis. They have conceded 44 league goals in 22 matches, and this lack of stability means any opponent with attacking clarity will find openings. This vulnerability is not a temporary dip but a season-long pattern, evidenced by the fact that they have managed only one clean sheet in their last 24 matches.
Sunderland arrive with a blueprint designed to exploit this specific weakness. Régis Le Bris has implemented an attacking style that relies on width and long balls, which is exactly where West Ham struggle most. Sunderland have proven they can dismantle this defense before, having won the reverse fixture 3-0 in August. With Brian Brobbey scoring twice in his last three outings and Enzo Le Fée contributing both goals and assists, Sunderland are built to score in East London.
However, West Ham remain a significant threat going forward. They average 10.3 shots per game and have a right-side thrust that few teams can contain when it clicks. Jarrod Bowen is the focal point with six league goals, and he is supported by Crysencio Summerville, who has scored in back-to-back games. Even while firefighting at the back, West Ham’s ability to create chances ensures they are likely to find the net, especially given they are desperate for points to move away from 18th place.
This means the match will likely be decided by which team survives the defensive transitions better. Given West Ham’s 44 goals conceded and Sunderland’s attacking efficiency, the most logical outcome is that both sides find the back of the net.
What could go wrong?
West Ham may choose to play an overly cautious game to protect their fragile confidence, leading to a low-shot encounter. Conversely, Sunderland have drawn 67% of their recent matches, and a tactical stalemate could occur if both managers prioritize a point over the risk of a loss.
Correct Score Lean
West Ham 1-1 Sunderland
This scoreline is the direct consequence of two teams that cancel each other out in key areas. Sunderland’s recent form is defined by four draws in their last six games, showing a high level of organization but a lack of a clinical edge to finish teams off. West Ham have scoring power through Bowen but lack the defensive discipline to keep a clean sheet, having conceded 44 times this season. A 1-1 result reflects Sunderland’s tactical stability and West Ham’s desperate need to secure at least a point at the London Stadium.
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