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Can Fulham’s control with the ball outlast West Ham’s need for a spark at the London Stadium? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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The statistical evidence for both teams finding the net is overwhelming. West Ham have conceded in 14 consecutive Premier League games and are shipping an average of 2.5 goals per home match. Fulham are equally porous on their travels, failing to keep a clean sheet in 20 straight away assignments. With both sides featuring primary attackers like Bowen and Jimenez who focus on shots from inside the box, the defensive lapses on both sides are likely to be punished. This market offers a balanced way to play a game where neither defense can be trusted.
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Fulham enter this match with superior momentum, having won their last two away games and sitting comfortably in mid-table. West Ham are struggling in the relegation zone with 10 losses this season and a habit of conceding multiple goals at home. However, the Hammers usually manage to score at the London Stadium, averaging 1.25 goals per home game. A 2-1 victory for the visitors reflects West Ham’s defensive struggles while acknowledging their ability to stay competitive in a high-scoring derby, similar to recent 3-2 and 2-1 results involving these teams.
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West Ham United vs Fulham Predictions and Best Bets
West Ham vs Fulham — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets based on seasonal performance and current defensive trends.
While Fulham sit higher in the table, the London Stadium atmosphere levels the playing field in the 1X2 market.
Defensive trends strongly suggest neither side will keep a clean sheet, with West Ham conceding in 14 straight games.
A narrow contest is expected, with results like 1-1 or a 1-2 away win seeing high market traction.
- Fulham’s underlying match rhythm is reflected in volume and control: 53% possession with 84% pass accuracy, alongside 234 total shots (11.14 per game), shows sustained ball use with regular attempts.
- West Ham’s defensive storyline is hard to ignore: 35 conceded in 17 league games, and they’ve allowed at least one goal in 14 straight Premier League matches, which shapes every game state.
- Both sides get into the danger zone when attacks click: West Ham take 71% of their shots from inside the box and Fulham 66%, suggesting box entries rather than relying on long-range efforts.
Defensive Trends: Goals Conceded Metrics
Both teams have struggled to maintain defensive solidity, particularly in recent months and on their travels.
The Hammers have struggled to shut out opponents for over three months, conceding a total of 35 goals this term.
Fulham’s defensive record on the road has been a persistent issue across all competitions.
Control Indicators: Possession & Passing
Fulham typically look to dictate the tempo through ball retention, while West Ham adopt a more direct approach.
High accuracy levels suggest a preference for building sequences from the back through Lukic and Berge.
Lower possession figures reflect a strategy focused on transition moments and the directness of Bowen.
Fulham’s final outing of 2025 comes with a familiar London edge: a trip across the capital to the London Stadium for a Premier League round 18 meeting with West Ham United on Saturday, 27/12/2025 (22:00), with the temperature listed at 6°.
The table gives the backdrop. West Ham arrive 18th with 13 points from 17 games, having scored 19 and conceded 35. Fulham sit 13th on 23 points from 17, with 24 scored and 26 conceded. That gap doesn’t decide a match on its own, but it does shape the mood music: West Ham needing traction, Fulham sensing a chance to close the year with momentum.
Recent meetings have brought goals and swings. West Ham beat Fulham 3-2 in January 2025 after leading 2-0 at half-time, while the reverse fixture in September 2024 finished 1-1. Go back further and Fulham have a 5-0 home win in December 2023 and a 2-0 away win in April 2024. In other words: this matchup hasn’t been short on plot twists.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
West Ham’s possible XI is listed as: Areola; Walker-Peters, Kilman, Todibo, Julio; Potts, Fernandes, Magassa; Paqueta, Bowen, Summerville. The notable absences section names Ł. Fabiański (back injury) and E. Diouf (called up to national team until 19.01.2026). With Areola named in the possible lineup, the goalkeeping picture looks settled for this one, while the selection of Potts, Fernandes and Magassa hints at a midfield built for legs and coverage as much as craft.
Fulham’s possible XI is: Leno; Tete, Andersen, Cuenca, Robinson; Lukic, Berge; Wilson, Smith Rowe, Kevin; Jimenez. On paper, that’s a clean split between a double pivot (Lukic and Berge), three attacking midfielders (Wilson, Smith Rowe, Kevin) and Jimenez up top. It reads like a side set up to carry a passing threat without losing its counterpunch.
There’s also an interesting cross-current in the personnel: West Ham list Bowen and Paqueta in the same front line, while Fulham’s creators include Wilson and Smith Rowe behind Jimenez. If both teams can get their most technical attackers on the ball early, this can turn into a game where the first touch matters as much as the first tackle.
How the Match Could Be Played
The clearest stylistic clue in the numbers is the contrast in how these sides typically use the ball. Fulham are listed at 53% possession with 84% pass accuracy, compared with West Ham’s 42% possession and 80% pass accuracy. That doesn’t automatically mean Fulham will dominate territory, but it strongly suggests they’re more comfortable building longer sequences, while West Ham are more likely to pick their moments and play through pressure rather than around it.
So the early battle may be about whether West Ham can turn Fulham’s build-up into a trap. With Potts, Fernandes and Magassa as a trio behind Paqueta, Bowen and Summerville, there’s a plausible shape where West Ham protect central space first and then jump when a pass into midfield gets loose. If Fulham’s double pivot receives under pressure, the second balls become key: win those and West Ham can attack quickly into the spaces left by Fulham’s full-backs.
Fulham’s likely response is to use their structure to keep the game tidy. Lukic and Berge give a platform to circulate the ball and choose when to speed it up. With Tete and Robinson as full-backs and Andersen alongside Cuenca, Fulham can try to pull West Ham’s first press wider, then find a lane into Smith Rowe between the lines. If Smith Rowe can receive on the half-turn, Wilson and Kevin become immediate runners either side, and Jimenez gets service earlier rather than having to wrestle for it with his back to goal all evening.
Where this match gets spicy is the shot profile. West Ham’s shot map shows 71% of shots from inside the box, while Fulham are at 66% inside the box. That hints at both sides being able to reach dangerous areas when attacks do develop, which puts a premium on transition defending. If Fulham commit numbers to an attack and lose it, Bowen’s directness and Paqueta’s ability to link play can turn one turnover into an immediate box entry. If West Ham step up and miss a duel, Fulham’s combination of Wilson and Smith Rowe around Jimenez can create a “one pass and you’re in” moment before the back line has reset.
The wide channels also look decisive. West Ham’s listed defence includes Walker-Peters and Julio as full-backs, with Kilman and Todibo inside. Fulham’s likely front four includes wide options (Wilson and Kevin) plus the advanced support of Robinson and Tete. If Fulham can get overloads on a flank, it can force West Ham’s midfield to shuffle across, and that’s when the edge-of-box pockets open for Smith Rowe. Conversely, if West Ham can keep their wide defenders aggressive and their midfield close, they can try to make Fulham’s attacks predictable and then spring out into space.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
West Ham’s league season is defined by two facts that change how you read every phase of play: they’ve conceded 35 goals in 17 Premier League matches, and the trends section states they have conceded 1+ goals in their most recent 14 Premier League matches. That matters tactically because it narrows the margin for error. Even if West Ham start well, the game can turn quickly if they allow Fulham consistent access into the box.
Fulham, though, aren’t painted as a shut-the-door side either. Their Premier League goals for and against are both 24 scored, 26 conceded across 17, and the trends section adds that they have allowed 1+ goals in their last 20 away games in all competitions. That’s not a prophecy for this match, but it does suggest that West Ham should believe chances will arrive if they commit to getting bodies into the final third rather than waiting for perfection.
The shot volume supports that sense of opportunity at both ends. Fulham have 234 total shots at 11.14 per game, compared with West Ham’s 175 at 9.72 per game. Crucially, that points to Fulham producing attempts more regularly, which fits the possession and passing picture: more ball, more sequences, more shots. West Ham, meanwhile, can still be a box team: the 71% inside-box share implies that when they do shoot, it often comes after they’ve found the dangerous zone rather than settling for hopeful efforts.
Even the “attacks” metrics hint at a match that can swing in phases. Fulham’s 974 dangerous attacks (46.38 per game) is higher than West Ham’s 727 (40.39 per game), yet West Ham’s home results show they can still land punches: wins against Burnley (3-2) and Newcastle United (3-1) are in there, even if the wider run includes defeats to Aston Villa and Liverpool.
Key “Moments” to Watch
This has the feel of a game where the first 15 minutes could set the emotional temperature, but the second-half details decide the outcome. One moment to watch is how Fulham handle West Ham’s front three when the ball turns over. If Bowen or Summerville can receive facing forward, that’s usually when defensive shapes start running backwards, and that’s when penalties, cutbacks and scramble clearances happen.
Another is whether Fulham can turn their possession edge into clean entries. With 53% possession and 84% pass accuracy, the temptation can be to dominate politely. The better version is dominance with bite: finding Smith Rowe early, asking Kevin and Wilson to run beyond, and making Jimenez a finisher rather than a wrestling partner.
Set the ball down and West Ham have technicians who can change tempo. Paqueta and Bowen in the same attacking line is exactly the kind of combination that can turn a quiet spell into two quick chances. But West Ham’s defensive record means they can’t treat any period of pressure as “job done”. One lapse, one second ball not cleared, and the match can flip again.
What could go wrong with this read? Football loves to laugh at tidy previews. A single early goal can rewrite the tactical terms completely — forcing the trailing side to take risks, turning possession into panic, and making transitions even more chaotic. And with both sides showing numbers that point to goals at both ends — West Ham’s recent run of conceding, Fulham’s away concessions — the cleanest plan can still be undone by a messy moment.
Best Bet for West Ham United vs Fulham
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Both Teams to Score (Yes)
West Ham United and Fulham enter this festive London derby with a clear shared characteristic: a persistent inability to keep the ball out of their own net. The defensive numbers for the home side are particularly stark, as they have conceded 35 goals in just 17 Premier League matches this season. This defensive fragility is not a recent blip but a long-standing trend; they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 14 league outings. At the London Stadium, they average 2.5 goals conceded per game, suggesting that Fulham’s attacking line will find plenty of opportunities to exploit gaps in the Hammers’ backline.
Fulham arrive with their own set of defensive concerns, specifically when playing away from Craven Cottage. They have allowed at least one goal in each of their last 20 away matches across all competitions. While they sit higher in the table, their goal difference is nearly neutral, having scored 24 and conceded 26. This indicates a team that is effective going forward but rarely comfortable enough to shut a game down. With 71% of West Ham’s shots and 66% of Fulham’s shots coming from inside the penalty area, both teams clearly possess the tactical intent to penetrate the box rather than relying on low-probability efforts from distance.
The tactical setups further support a high-scoring exchange. West Ham’s likely front three of Paqueta, Bowen, and Summerville offers significant creative and clinical threat, while Fulham’s trio of Wilson, Smith Rowe, and Kevin behind Jimenez is designed to transition quickly. Historically, these meetings have been productive for attackers; the January 2025 encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for West Ham, following a trend of high-scoring affairs including 5-0 and 3-1 results in the recent past. Given that both teams are averaging over 1.1 goals per match while conceding significantly more, the most logical outcome is for both goalkeepers to be beaten at least once.
What could go wrong?
While the statistics heavily favor goals at both ends, a “perfect storm” of poor finishing or exceptional goalkeeping could derail the bet. If either side adopts an overly cautious, defensive approach to break their respective streaks of conceding, the game could settle into a midfield stalemate. Additionally, with the match taking place in cold 6° temperatures, a slow start or heavy legs during the busy festive period could result in a lack of intensity in the final third.
Correct score lean: 1-2
Fulham look slightly better positioned to edge this contest given West Ham’s dire form of 10 losses in 17 games and their position in the relegation zone. While West Ham have a strong historical record at home against the Cottagers, their current season average of 2.5 goals conceded at home is difficult to ignore. Fulham have won their last two away league matches and possess a more settled midfield structure with Lukic and Berge. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Fulham’s recent trend of one-goal margin results and reflects West Ham’s tendency to score at home but ultimately succumb to defensive lapses.
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