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Can Igor Tudor’s baptism of fire spark a Tottenham revival against the relentless league leaders? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Arsenal arrive with dominant form, unbeaten in 37 of their last 39 matches. Spurs are winless in 2026 and have lost 5 of the last 6 derbies. Arsenal’s tactical control and Spurs’ defensive vulnerability to wing attacks make an away win highly probable.
Read Rationale ▾
Spurs have scored in 12 consecutive home games, but have conceded 2+ in six straight league matches. Arsenal average nearly 2 goals per game and possess the quality to exploit Spurs’ individual errors while likely conceding to a desperate home side.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
Derby day returns to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as a struggling Spurs side hosts an Arsenal team unbeaten in 37 of their last 39 matches.
Tottenham vs Arsenal — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with sample William Hill odds based on our North London derby analysis.
Arsenal’s 37-match unbeaten run makes them heavy favourites against a Tottenham side that hasn’t won a league game in 2026.
Spurs have conceded 2+ in six straight league matches, while Arsenal’s scoring power suggests a high-probability for goals in this fixture.
The 1–2 and 0–2 Arsenal wins are priced as high-probability outcomes given the visitors’ massive gulf in league form and momentum.
Arsenal have kept 22 clean sheets in 42 games this season, showcasing a defensive rigour that Tottenham’s depleted attack will struggle to break.
North London Derby Preview: Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
- Spurs’ 2026 problem is real: Tottenham are the only team without a Premier League win in 2026, taking just 4 points from 24 on offer as the table tightens.
- Arsenal bring the heavy momentum: Arsenal have not been beaten in 37 of their last 39 matches in all competitions, and sit 1st with 58 points from 27 games.
- This derby has tilted hard: Spurs have suffered 5 defeats in their last 6 meetings with Arsenal, with Arsenal winning 5 of the last 6 head-to-head clashes.
Momentum Check: Matches Without Defeat
A stark contrast in resilience defines the two sides entering this derby clash.
The league leaders have shown incredible durability, suffering only two losses in a massive sample size of fixtures.
Spurs are currently the only Premier League team without a victory in the current calendar year.
Defensive Stability: Total Clean Sheets
The defensive foundation of the league leaders vs the high-risk approach of the hosts.
Arteta’s men shut out opponents in more than half of their total competitive outings so far.
Spurs have struggled recently, conceding two or more goals in six consecutive league fixtures.
Derby day doesn’t ask permission. It kicks the door in. Tottenham welcome Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at 16:30, and the stakes feel sharp at both ends of the table.
Igor Tudor walks into a “baptism of fire” as Spurs head coach, inheriting a side five points above the relegation zone and still searching for a league win in 2026. The mood is edgy, the margins are thin, and the home record has been grim — two Premier League home wins all season.
Across the touchline, Mikel Arteta brings the league leaders, a team that has gone unbeaten in 37 of their last 39 in all competitions. Spurs need a statement. Arsenal want control.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur absences
- Dejan Kulusevski (knee surgery) – out until 09/03/2026
- Wilson Odobert (cruciate ligament tear) – return date not listed
- Destiny Udogie (hamstring injury) – out until 14/03/2026
- Mohammed Kudus (hamstring injury) – out until 10/04/2026
Arsenal absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Tottenham XI (Tudor)
Vicario; Gray, Dragusin, Van de Ven, Spence; Gallagher, Palhinha, Sarr; Kolo Muani, Solanke, Simons
Probable Arsenal XI (Arteta)
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard
Lineup implications
Spurs missing Kudus (5 assists) and Kulusevski strips away craft and carry in the final third, pushing more creation onto Xavi Simons and the wide rotations. Arsenal’s midfield trio of Ødegaard, Zubimendi and Declan Rice screams control — and Spurs’ “avoid individual errors” problem makes that a terrifying mix.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position / Points | 16th / 29 (26 GP) | 1st / 58 (27 GP) |
| Goals scored (PL) | 36 (26 apps) | 52 (27 apps) |
| Shots per game (PL) | 11.1 | 14.5 |
| Possession (PL) | 50.7% | 57.6% |
| Pass % (PL) | 82.0% | 84.8% |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 14 (37 played) | 22 (42 played) |
| Corners (all comps) | 180 | 250 |
What it suggests
Arsenal turn games into territory: more possession, more shots, more dangerous attacks (58.9 per game vs Spurs’ 47.68), and a serious clean-sheet count. Spurs can keep the ball, but they’ve been leaking goals — 2+ conceded in six straight league matches — which is a brutal cocktail against a side built on through balls and set-piece power.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Arsenal: squeeze, slide, and strike through the lines
Arsenal control matches in the opposition half and they love threading passes through tight gaps. They’re very strong at creating chances through through balls, and their attacking structure tilts to the right — that puts Bukayo Saka in prime real estate, with runners arriving off him.
They also tick the “ugly goals” box: very strong at attacking set pieces and very strong at defending set pieces. If you give Arsenal cheap corners or soft free-kicks, you’re basically inviting pressure you can’t switch off.
The detail that matters here: Arsenal haven’t lost at half-time in 20 straight matches in all competitions. They start well, then they tighten the screw.
Spurs: width, crosses, and a high-wire act
Tottenham are very strong at attacking down the wings and they attempt crosses often. That fits Tudor’s likely approach: simplify, play wide, get bodies into the box, and force a game that isn’t decided purely by Arsenal’s midfield triangle.
But Spurs are weak at defending against attacks down the wings, and very weak at defending against skilful players. That’s the danger. If Spurs push full-backs high, Arsenal’s wide quality can punch straight through the space left behind.
Spurs also live with volatility. They’re aggressive, they play an offside trap, and they’re very weak at avoiding individual errors. That’s fine when you’re flying — it’s lethal when you’re fragile.
Key Zones and Game-State Scenarios
Where it swings: Spurs’ set-piece threat vs Arsenal’s set-piece armour
Spurs are strong at attacking set pieces. Arsenal are very strong at defending them. That duel might decide whether Tottenham can stay connected to the match when Arsenal settle.
If Spurs can’t land that first punch from a dead ball, they’ll need open-play creativity without Kudus and Kulusevski — and that’s a tall order against a side conceding just 0.67 per game across their matches.
Game-state pressure
Spurs have scored in each of their last 12 home games in all competitions. They can hit the net. The question is whether they can stop Arsenal hitting it back — especially with Spurs conceding 2+ in each of the last six Premier League games.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first 20 minutes: Arsenal don’t give away early momentum often, and Spurs can’t afford another anxious start at home.
- Wide battles: Spurs want width and crosses; Arsenal want controlled wide overloads with Saka and runners arriving off him.
- Set pieces: Arsenal’s set-piece strength at both ends collides with Spurs’ reliance on moments to lift the crowd.
- Discipline and chaos control: Spurs average 2.41 yellow cards per game (all comps) with 4 reds, while Arsenal have 0 reds in the same block — derby emotion has to be channelled, not splashed.
What could go wrong?
For Spurs, it’s the perfect storm: chasing the game, pushing wide, then getting picked off by through balls while individual errors creep in. For Arsenal, it’s derby disorder — Spurs turning it into a fight, winning second balls, and dragging the match into the kind of scrappy rhythm leaders hate.
Derby Rationale: Analysing the North London Battle
Match Result Market
The 1X2 market is the traditional way to predict a game’s outcome. By selecting a team to win, you are choosing them to be ahead at the final whistle. Pros: Straightforward and clear. Cons: No safety net for a draw.
Correct Score Market
This requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Pros: High rewards for precision. Cons: Extremely volatile, as a single late goal can ruin the pick. Others: Scorecast offers a similar high-risk alternative.
🎯 Arsenal to Win (11/20)
Arsenal arrive at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with a monumental momentum gap. The league leaders are currently unbeaten in 37 of their last 39 matches across all competitions, a level of consistency that towers over their rivals. In contrast, Tottenham have endured a miserable start to 2026, remaining the only side in the Premier League without a victory this year. Taking only four points from a possible 24 highlights a deep-rooted struggle that new manager Igor Tudor must solve in his first game.
Tactical Indicators:
- Arsenal have won 5 of the last 6 head-to-head North London derbies.
- Spurs have conceded at least two goals in each of their last six league appearances.
- Arsenal haven’t trailed at half-time in 20 straight competitive matches.
Risk Factor: Derby atmosphere can often equalise form, and Tudor’s tactical change may cause initial unpredictability for the visitors.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Arteta’s men excel at creating chances through central gaps against an aggressive offside trap.
Spurs are very weak at avoiding mistakes, proving lethal against Arsenal’s high-pressure squeeze.
🎯 Arsenal 2-1 Tottenham (7/1)
Predicting a 2-1 scoreline aligns with the statistical trends of both clubs. Tottenham, despite their poor win record, remain dangerous at home, having scored in 12 consecutive home fixtures. Arsenal’s defensive record is elite with 22 clean sheets this season, but the intensity of a derby often breaches structure. Arsenal average nearly two goals per game in the league, while Spurs’ porous defence has leaked two goals per game over their last six matches.
Risk Factor: Arsenal’s clinical nature could easily see this scoreline widen if Spurs chase the game late on and commit further individual errors.
⚔️ North London Derby Q&A
⊕ Who are the favourites to win the North London derby?
Arsenal are the favourites for this match. They currently sit 1st in the league and have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Tottenham.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
This market requires you to predict the exact final score of the match. While it offers higher odds, it is difficult because any goal from either side can change the outcome instantly.
⊕ What is Tottenham’s recent form in the Premier League?
Tottenham have struggled significantly, failing to win a single Premier League game in 2026. They have also conceded two or more goals in six consecutive matches.
⊕ Is Bukayo Saka expected to play for Arsenal?
Yes, Bukayo Saka is included in the probable XI for Arsenal. He is a central part of their attacking structure, which tilts heavily toward the right wing.
⊕ What are the absences for Tottenham Hotspur?
Spurs are missing several key players including Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, and Wilson Odobert due to various injuries.
⊕ What does 11/20 odds mean in plain English?
These odds indicate a high probability of an event occurring. In this case, for every £20 wagered, you would stand to make a £11 profit if the result is correct.
⊕ Does Arsenal have a good defensive record this season?
Yes, Arsenal have one of the strongest defences in the league, keeping 22 clean sheets across 42 matches in all competitions this season.
⊕ What is the main tactical danger for Spurs in this game?
Spurs’ high-risk offside trap and weakness in avoiding individual errors are primary concerns. Arsenal’s ability to play through balls and exploit wide spaces makes them very dangerous.
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