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Can Everton turn “unfinished business” into a rare double over Manchester United at their new home? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Everton vs Man Utd — Market Snapshot
Key statistical insights and sample bet365 odds for tonight’s Premier League clash.
Manchester United’s superior shot volume and league position make them favourites despite Everton’s previous win in the reverse fixture.
Both teams have been scoring consistently, with United seeing both teams score in 11 consecutive away matches lately.
Everton’s stubborn defence and United’s attacking volume suggest a narrow result, potentially with goals at both ends tonight.
Everton have picked up 52 yellow cards this season, reflecting their aggressive style against United’s more controlled possession approach.
Hill Dickinson Stadium gets a proper test under the lights as Everton welcome Manchester United with the chance to do a league double over them for the first time since 2013-14.
Attacking Frequency: Average Shots per Match
The difference in shot volume highlights the likely flow of the game, with one side creating significantly more shooting opportunities per 90 minutes.
Everton rely on clinical finishing in smaller bursts, often through crosses and direct play.
United’s style leads to frequent testing of the opposition goalkeeper, driven by central creation.
Defensive Shield: League Clean Sheets
Despite league position, the defensive shutout record shows a notable contrast in how often each team completely blunts the opposition.
Everton have shown high resilience, though clean sheets at home have been harder to come by recently.
United matches have tended to be more open, frequently seeing both teams find the net.
Match Preview
- Home Frustration: Everton are winless in their last six home matches across all competitions (0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), and they’ve lost five of their last 10 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
- Shot Volume Gap: Manchester United average 16.5 shots per game compared to Everton’s 11.45, a split that hints at long spells of United pressure and Everton having to be ruthless when chances land.
- Goals at Both Ends: United matches have been lively lately — in their Premier League away run, both teams have scored in 11 straight, while Everton have hit 1+ goal in nine consecutive games across all competitions.
Hill Dickinson Stadium gets a proper test under the lights. Everton welcome Manchester United with the rare sniff of a statement win — and even rarer history dangling in front of them: the chance to do a league double over United for the first time since 2013-14.
David Moyes’ side have been stubborn lately — unbeaten in six of their last seven in all competitions — but the mood at home is edgier. They haven’t won any of their last six in front of their own supporters, and clean sheets on Merseyside have dried up since that 3-0 over Nottingham Forest in early December.
Michael Carrick’s United arrive three places higher in the table and with stronger recent league form. Everton have beaten them once already this season; now comes the hard part: doing it again.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Everton absences
Jack Grealish (foot surgery) — out until 01.06.2026
Manchester United absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Everton Probable XI
Pickford; Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Barry
Manchester United Probable XI
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Diallo, Fernandes, Cunha; Mbeumo
Tactical Analysis
Everton’s shape screams graft and directness: Idrissa Gueye and James Garner as the bite-and-build double pivot, with Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall tasked with turning scraps into threat. Without Grealish, creativity leans even harder on midfield running and smart final-third choices.
United’s XI is stacked for control and chance creation. Bruno Fernandes sits at the heart of it with 12 assists, and the front line has goals spread across Bryan Mbeumo (9), Matheus Cunha (6) and others — the kind of balance that punishes even brief lapses.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League) | Everton | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Position / Points | 9th / 37 | 5th / 45 |
| Games played | 26 | 26 |
| Goals scored | 29 | 47 |
| Goals conceded | 30 | 37 |
| Shots per game | 11.0–11.45 | 16.0–16.5 |
| Possession | 43.8–45% | 53% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.7–81% | 82.8–83% |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 4 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 52 | 41 |
| Red cards (total) | 4 | 2 |
United should see more of the ball and take more shots — the numbers point that way, loudly. Everton, though, have conceded fewer league goals than United and have far more clean sheets listed across played games, which hints at a side that can dig in and survive waves.
So the game script is clear: United probe and pin; Everton absorb and try to land the punch with fewer, sharper moments.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Everton’s plan: go long, go wide, go direct
Everton’s tendencies are unapologetic: long passes, frequent crossing, and attacks tilted to the left. They also “attempt many shots” — but the shot count shows they do it in smaller bursts than United, so shot quality and timing matters.
Expect Everton to lean into what they do well:
- Aerial presence is a major weapon. James Tarkowski leads the way with 4.4 aerial duels won per game, and Thierno Barry (3.7) is a huge target up top.
- Set-piece defending is a strength, and Everton are strong at winning the ball back. That suits a match where they may spend long periods without the ball.
But there’s a tension in their approach. Everton struggle to retain possession, and they’re vulnerable to through balls and long shots. If they keep giving it away cheaply, the pitch starts to tilt — and tilt becomes siege.
United’s plan: possession, punchy combinations, and Fernandes pulling strings
United are built to create — and they do it in multiple ways:
- They are very strong at creating chances and creating chances from through balls.
- They are also very strong at creating chances for shots from distance, which directly targets one of Everton’s weaknesses: defending long-range efforts.
- Their style points to possession, central attacks, and those threaded passes that split lines.
This is where Bruno Fernandes is the headline act. He’s not just assisting (12) — he’s also shooting (2.5 shots per game) and rating as United’s standout (7.42). If Everton allow him to receive facing forward, United’s attack can come in quick, sharp waves: one pass inside, one slip into the channel, one cut-back.
And there’s a sneaky angle here: United are described as not very aggressive, while opponents tend to play aggressively against them. Everton are explicitly aggressive. That clash matters. Everton can try to make this a contact-heavy, second-ball match — break United’s rhythm, force loose touches, and keep the crowd involved.
Key Zones & Swings
- Everton’s left-sided bias vs United’s structure. Everton like going left and crossing often. If they can pin United’s right side and win territory, they’ll start feeding Barry early — and that invites chaos in the box.
- United’s central creation vs Everton’s defensive discipline. United attack through the middle and look for through balls. Everton’s weakness against those passes is a flashing warning light. The job for Gueye and Garner is to screen, track runners, and stop passes being played through them.
- Transitions: United’s soft spot. United’s weakness defending counter-attacks is tailor-made for Everton’s direct game. If Everton can win it and play forward quickly — one touch, two touch — Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall can drive into space before the shape resets.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces, both boxes. Everton are strong defending set pieces, but United are strong attacking them. One dead ball could decide the mood of the night — and the second ball after it might matter even more.
- Fernandes’ pockets. If Bruno Fernandes starts finding space between Everton’s midfield and back line, United’s chance creation spikes. Everton’s best minutes may come when he’s forced wide or backwards.
- Aerial duels and territory. Tarkowski (4.4 aerials won per game) and Barry (3.7) can turn clearances into attacks. If Everton start winning those battles consistently, United’s possession becomes less comfortable and more risky.
- Discipline and edge. Everton have 52 yellows and 4 reds listed; United have 41 yellows and 2 reds. This could get scrappy. Keep an eye on the temperature — one mistimed challenge can flip momentum and shape.
What could go wrong?
Everton’s home run without a win is a weight, not a footnote — especially when United bring higher shot volume and more consistent chance creation. But United aren’t bulletproof: they can be exposed on the counter, and their matches away from home have repeatedly seen both teams score. If this turns into a basketball game — transitions, second balls, big moments — control goes out the window, and Hill Dickinson Stadium gets exactly the kind of night it’s been waiting for.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict the winner of the match and whether both teams will score at least one goal. It is a popular way to increase the price on a favourite when their defensive record is inconsistent.
Pros: Higher returns than a simple win bet. Cons: A clean sheet for either side voids the bet.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market where you predict the exact final scoreline at the end of 90 minutes. Because of the difficulty, the prices offered are significantly higher than other markets.
Pros: Large potential returns. Cons: Low probability; a single late goal can ruin the selection.
🎯 Manchester United to Win & Both Teams to Score Rationale
Manchester United arrive at Hill Dickinson Stadium as the statistically superior side in terms of offensive output, averaging 16.5 shots per game compared to Everton’s 11.45. While Everton achieved a victory in the reverse fixture, their current home form is a significant concern, having failed to win any of their last six matches in front of their own supporters. United’s clinical edge is supported by a squad with goals spread across the front line and the creative brilliance of Bruno Fernandes, who has registered 12 assists this season.
However, a Manchester United clean sheet seems unlikely given the recent trends. Everton have managed to score in nine consecutive matches across all competitions, demonstrating they remain a threat even during a poor run of results. Furthermore, United’s away matches in the Premier League have seen both teams score in 11 straight fixtures. Everton’s aggressive style and strength in winning the ball back mean they are likely to unsettle a United defence that has only kept four clean sheets across all played games this season.
Tactical Indicators:
- United’s shot volume is over 40% higher than Everton’s.
- Everton have scored in 9 consecutive matches regardless of the result.
- United have seen both teams score in 11 consecutive away league games.
Risk Factor: Everton’s defensive record is statistically better than United’s in terms of goals conceded (30 vs 37), and a low-scoring draw could disrupt the win requirement.
Key Tactical Mismatch
James Tarkowski wins 4.4 aerial duels per game, making Everton a constant threat from high crosses and direct long balls.
United are vulnerable to quick transitions, which suits Everton’s tendency to play direct and attack quickly down the left.
⚔️ Manchester United 2-1 Rationale
Predicting a 2-1 victory for Manchester United aligns with the tactical reality of both squads. Everton have a strong aerial presence and are described as aggressive, which usually forces a high-intensity match where they can find at least one goal, particularly through Thierno Barry or set-piece specialist James Tarkowski. However, United’s strength in creating chances from through balls and distance directly targets Everton’s established weaknesses in those specific defensive areas.
United possess the league’s 5th best attack with 47 goals, nearly double Everton’s tally of 29. While Everton’s defence is statistically stubborn, conceding only 30 goals, the sheer volume of shots United produce (16.5 per game) suggests they will eventually find the breakthroughs required. A one-goal margin reflects Everton’s ability to remain competitive at home despite their winless streak, while the 2-1 scoreline respects the fact that United have struggled to keep clean sheets on the road.
Risk Factor: Correct score markets are highly volatile; Everton’s ability to defend set pieces could limit United to a single goal or result in a 1-1 draw.
⊕ Questions & Answers
⊕ What does “Match Result & Both Teams to Score” mean?
This is a combined bet where you need the chosen team to win the game and both teams to score at least one goal. Both parts of the bet must happen for it to be a winner.
⊕ Why is Manchester United favoured to win despite losing to Everton earlier this season?
Manchester United are favoured because they average significantly more shots per game (16.5) and sit higher in the league table. Everton are also on a six-match winless run at home, which impacts their probability of winning.
Both teams to score is plausible because Manchester United have seen this land in 11 consecutive away league matches. Additionally, Everton have scored in nine consecutive games across all competitions.
⊕ What is Everton’s biggest tactical advantage in this match?
Everton’s biggest advantage is their aerial dominance, particularly through James Tarkowski. They win many aerial duels and look to exploit high crossing volume, which can create chaos in the United box.
⊕ How does a “Correct Score” bet work?
A correct score bet requires you to pick the exact final score of the match at the end of normal time. If the game finishes 1-1 and you bet on 2-1, the bet is lost.
⊕ Who is the key player to watch for Manchester United?
Bruno Fernandes is the key man for United, having recorded 12 assists and averaging 2.5 shots per game. His ability to create chances through the middle is United’s primary attacking threat.
⊕ Is Everton’s home stadium an advantage in this game?
Statistically, the Hill Dickinson Stadium has not been a fortress recently, as Everton are winless in their last six home matches. However, the aggressive crowd and under-the-lights atmosphere can disrupt United’s rhythm.
⊕ What happens if the match ends in a 0-0 draw?
If the match ends 0-0, both the “United to Win & BTTS” and the “United 2-1” bets would lose, as neither the winner nor the goal-scoring requirements would be met.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 22, 11:13 GMT | Editorial Policy
