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Can Everton turn road momentum into home control as Leeds chase a first-ever league double? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Leeds see both teams score in 67% of their matches and are very leaky defensively. Everton are missing key defenders like Branthwaite and Keane, while their home form shows they struggle for clean sheets. Both sides have strong attacking outlets in Ndiaye and Calvert-Lewin.
Read Rationale ▾
Leeds average more shots and goals than Everton. The Toffees have lost three of their last four home league games and are missing defensive depth. While Everton’s wing threat should find a goal, Leeds’ set-piece strength and central attacks should help them secure a narrow away win.
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Everton vs Leeds United Predictions and Best Bets
Everton vs Leeds — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Everton hold marginal home advantage, while Leeds’ high offensive volume makes the visitors a significant factor in 1X2 pricing.
With Leeds recording a 67% BTTS rate this season, illustrative pricing reflects a higher expectation of both teams finding the net.
- Home comfort? Not lately: Everton have taken just one win in their last six home games in all competitions, and they’ve lost three of their last four league matches at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
- Shots, shots, shots: Leeds average 12.8 shots per Premier League game to Everton’s 10.8, and they’ve piled up 328 total shots to Everton’s 283 across their league campaigns so far.
- Two sides who flirt with drama: Leeds have seen Both Teams To Score land in 67% of their matches (16 of 24), while Everton’s is 36% (9 of 25) — a clash of chaos versus control.
Match Intensity: Shots per League Game
Leeds’ higher-event style results in significantly more offensive volume compared to Everton’s structured approach.
Leeds have registered 328 total shots across their campaign, keeping opposing keepers active.
Everton have recorded 283 total shots, reflecting a more patient build-up play.
Attacking Output: Season Goals Scored
Total goals scored so far illustrate the differing offensive productivity of these two mid-table sides.
Monday night, 20:00, and the Hill Dickinson Stadium gets a proper test of nerve. Everton arrive buoyed by a statement 1-0 away win at Aston Villa — their first victory of 2026 at the fourth attempt — and it’s dragged David Moyes’ side back into the conversation around the top half. The problem? That edge hasn’t travelled back to Merseyside lately.
Leeds United, meanwhile, come in with a late 1-0 over Fulham in gameweek 22 and a very specific target: complete a first-ever Premier League double over Everton. They’ve already beaten the Toffees 1-0 this season. Now Daniel Farke’s side try to land the same punch again — in a stadium they’re visiting for the first time.
Team News & Lineups
Everton absences
- Charly Alcaraz (knock)
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (hamstring injury)
- Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring injury, out until 31.01.2026)
- Michael Keane (red card suspension, out until 27.01.2026)
Leeds absences
- None listed.
Everton possible starting lineup
Pickford; Patterson, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Mykolenko; Garner, Rohl; Ndiaye, Armstrong, McNeil; Barry
Leeds United possible starting lineup
Darlow; Justin, Struijk, Rodon; Bogle, Stach, Aaronson, Ampadu, Gudmundsson; Nmecha, Calvert-Lewin
What it means
Everton’s back line looks sturdy on paper, but losing Branthwaite and Keane strips depth and aerial security. At the other end, Thierno Barry leads the line again after deciding Villa Park with that second-half chip — but Everton’s bigger task is turning moments into waves at home, not just surviving and snatching.
Leeds have a clear front-door threat: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (9 league goals) supported by Brenden Aaronson and runners like Lukas Nmecha. The balance screams “pressure and repeat attacks” — but it also dares Everton to hit the spaces Leeds leave.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premier League) | Everton | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 16th |
| Points | 32 | 25 |
| Goals scored | 24 | 30 |
| Goals conceded | 25 | 37 |
| Shots per game | 10.8 | 12.8 |
| Possession % | 42.6% | 45.6% |
| Pass % | 79.2% | 80.1% |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 4 |
Everton’s numbers read like a team built to keep games close — 25 conceded in 22, plus 10 clean sheets. Leeds are louder: more goals for (30) but far leakier (37 conceded), and they shoot more often. Put simply: Everton want control of the scoreline; Leeds want control of the temperature.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Everton’s left-lane habit vs Leeds’ wing pain
Everton lean into attacking down the left, with crosses, through balls, and long balls baked into the plan. That matters because Leeds carry a clear soft spot: defending against attacks down the wings is a weakness, and they’re also very weak at handling skillful players.
That’s the runway for Iliman Ndiaye to make this feel personal. He’s Everton’s joint top scorer on 4 league goals, he shoots 1.3 times per game, and he’s not a passenger. If Everton can get Ndiaye receiving on the half-turn, Leeds’ structure has to collapse towards him — and that’s when cut-backs and second balls become the real story.
Leeds’ central thrust meets Everton’s counter anxiety
Leeds like to attack through the middle, take a lot of shots, and they’ve got set-piece threat too — very strong at attacking dead balls and strong from direct free-kicks. Everton, though, have obvious stress points: they’re weak at defending counter attacks and through balls, and they can be guilty of individual errors.
That’s the pressure point of the night. Leeds can play in their own half and still spring forward quickly — and when they do, Everton’s decision-making has to be clean. Calvert-Lewin adds a direct option (and wins 3.1 aerial duels per game), while Aaronson brings movement and chance creation (4 goals, 3 assists). Leeds don’t need to dominate the ball to dominate the box.
Who dictates the rhythm?
Neither side screams “possession kings” — Everton at 42.6%, Leeds at 45.6% — so this is less about who has it and more about what they do with it. Leeds attempt more, Everton protect more. Expect Leeds to probe and shoot, Everton to absorb, then punch into the channels with speed and early delivery.
And don’t ignore the discipline edge: Everton’s league discipline figure sits at 403 versus Leeds’ 320, plus Everton average 1.76 yellow cards a match. If the game gets stretched, the fouls — and the free-kicks Leeds like — start stacking up.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Leeds are very strong at attacking set pieces. Everton’s best route is winning first contact and forcing Leeds to reset.
- First goal timing: Everton’s average first goal time is 43’, Leeds’ is 45’. If it’s level late in the first half, expect the tempo to spike rather than settle.
- The shot volume swing: Leeds shoot more often; Everton protect leads well. If Everton score first, the match shape changes sharply.
What could go wrong?
Everton’s home wobble is real: only one win in the last six at home (all competitions), and they’ve been caught in open, messy games there — including conceding four to Brentford. Leeds, for their part, can lose their grip when asked to defend wide areas or protect a lead, and they’ve struggled away in the league — winning just one of their last 11 away Premier League matches. In other words: both sides have a flaw that can flip this fixture on its head in five chaotic minutes.
Best Bet for Everton vs Leeds
Can Everton turn road momentum into home control as Leeds chase a first-ever league double?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | Leeds 30 goals; Everton 24 goals | Back BTTS |
| Defense | Leeds 37 conceded; Everton 25 conceded | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Volume | Leeds 12.8 shots/gm; Everton 10.8 shots/gm | Over 21.5 Shots |
| Chaos | Leeds 67% BTTS rate; Everton 36% | Yes on BTTS |
Both Teams to Score (Yes)
Everton return to the Hill Dickinson Stadium looking to replicate the defensive steel that earned them a 1-0 win at Villa Park, but history suggests their home ground is far less secure. With only one win in their last six home matches and three losses in their last four league games at this venue, Everton are prone to lapses. The absence of Jarrad Branthwaite and Michael Keane further depletes their defensive depth, leaving them vulnerable to a Leeds side that thrives on high-volume attacking.
Leeds United are the definition of an “all-action” side, averaging 12.8 shots per game and having already found the net 30 times this season. Their matches are frequently high-scoring affairs, evidenced by the fact that both teams have scored in 67% of their fixtures. While they are dangerous moving forward, Daniel Farke’s men are “leaky” at the back, conceding 37 goals so far. They specifically struggle against skillful wingers and attacks generated from wide areas.
This tactical setup perfectly suits Everton’s reliance on Iliman Ndiaye and Dwight McNeil, who lead a system built on crossing and wing play. Everton’s joint top scorer, Ndiaye, will find plenty of space against a Leeds defense that is “very weak” at handling skillful individuals. Conversely, Leeds possess a clinical threat in Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has 9 league goals and will be eager to score against his former employers.
Given that Leeds concede frequently but shoot often, and Everton are missing key defensive pillars while playing at a home ground where they struggle for clean sheets, the logic points toward both nets bulging. This isn’t a cagey affair; it’s a clash of two sides that invite drama.
What could go wrong?
Everton have recorded 10 clean sheets this season, showing a capacity to “park the bus” successfully when they score first. If David Moyes opts for an ultra-conservative approach to protect a 1-0 lead, Leeds might struggle to break through Everton’s low block despite their shot volume, especially since Leeds have won only one of their last 11 away league games.
Correct Score Lean
Everton 1-2 Leeds
Leeds are chasing a historic first-ever Premier League double over Everton and have the offensive tools to achieve it. Everton’s home form is poor, losing three of their last four at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and the loss of Branthwaite removes their best aerial defender. Leeds average more shots and goals per game than their hosts. While Everton’s wing play will likely result in a goal against a Leeds defense that is weak in wide areas, the visitors’ central thrust and set-piece strength should see them edge a high-tempo encounter.
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