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Arteta’s first visit to Everton’s new home: can the Toffees disrupt Arsenal’s relentless control?
There’s a nice bit of symmetry to this one. Mikel Arteta, once an Everton midfielder, heads back to face the Toffees at their new home for the first time, with Arsenal arriving on a Saturday night and the Premier League table giving this fixture a proper edge. Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Arsenal sit top of the league with a +20 goal difference, driven by a defensive structure that concedes only 0.63 goals per game. Their underlying metrics (1.72 xG For vs 0.86 xG Against) are vastly superior to Everton’s (1.26 For vs 1.48 Against). While Everton have a decent home record, Arsenal’s ability to control possession (56%) and generate high shot volume (14.56 per match) makes them the clear statistical favourite to take all three points.
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This scoreline is the sweet spot of the data. Arsenal keep clean sheets in 50% of their matches and concede less than a goal a game. Offensively, they average nearly two goals (1.88). Everton concede 1.19 per game. The match dynamic of Arsenal controlling the tempo and Everton struggling to create consistent chances (3.00 shots on target per match) supports a professional, clean-sheet victory for the visitors.
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Everton vs Arsenal Predictions and Best Bets
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- Arsenal’s table-topping balance: After 16 matches, Arsenal sit first on 36 points with 30 goals scored and only 10 conceded, underlining control at both ends.
- Everton’s tightrope season profile: Everton are ninth with 24 points and a -1 goal difference (18 for, 19 against), suggesting many games hinge on a handful of decisive moments.
- Shot volume tells a story of pressure: Arsenal average 14.56 shots and 5.13 on target per match, compared to Everton’s 10.63 shots and 3.00 on target, hinting at sustained away pressure.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
A quick snapshot of how open matches have been around each side this season, using average total goals per Premier League game.
Everton’s games sit a touch lower on overall goals, fitting a season where organisation and concentration tend to decide the big moments.
Arsenal’s matches still carry goals, but the balance comes from how little they allow at the other end across the campaign so far.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets show how often each side has managed to keep opponents off the scoreboard across their Premier League schedule.
Six clean sheets underline a side that can lock in defensively when their shape holds, even if games are often decided by small swings.
Eight clean sheets back up the broader picture of a team conceding just 10 league goals, with long spells of control doing the protecting.
Attacking Reliability: Matches With a Goal Scored
This compares how often each side has found the net at least once, giving a simple feel for scoring regularity across the season.
Everton have scored in 69% of league games overall, so their best spells tend to come when they can turn territory into a quick finish.
Arsenal have scored in 94% of league fixtures, which matches the eye-test of a side that keeps producing chances through sustained pressure.
Arsenal come into the weekend top after 16 matches, carrying 36 points with a goal difference of +20, built on 30 scored and just 10 conceded. Everton sit ninth on 24 points, with 18 for and 19 against, and that gap in the numbers hints at two different realities: one side controlling games at a title pace, the other scrapping smartly enough to stay in the top half while still living close to the fine margins.
Recent results add colour without giving you the whole painting. Arsenal “somehow got the better” of Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend, while Everton were second best against Chelsea, who are described here as Club World Cup winners. And then there’s the venue angle: the Hill Dickinson Stadium is new enough that even the Arsenal manager’s return-to-Goodison narrative has to find a new backdrop.
All of which means the themes are already set. Can Everton turn a first big night at a new ground into an emotional lift, or does Arsenal’s structure and shot-volume grind the romance out of it? Are we in for a game of bursts — one mistake, one set-piece, one moment of quality — or does it become a long, controlled squeeze where Everton spend most of the evening trying to breathe?
Either way, there’s too much here for it to be a quiet, polite game of football.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Everton’s possible starting XI is listed as: Pickford; O’Brien, Keane, Tarkowski, Mykolenko; Garner, Iroegbunam; Dibling, Alcaraz, Grealish; Barry.
That reads like a back four protected by a double pivot, with three behind a lone forward. The interesting part is the cast of the front four: Grealish named in the line of three, Alcaraz in that same band, and Dibling completing it. If that’s how it lands, Everton have the ingredients for carrying the ball and buying fouls in useful areas, rather than relying purely on hopeful service into the box. The spine is sturdy: Pickford behind Keane and Tarkowski, with Garner alongside Iroegbunam in midfield.
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Arsenal’s possible XI is listed as: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Hincapie, Calafiori; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard.
Again, it looks like a familiar 4-3-3 on paper, but the balance within it matters. Rice, Zubimendi and Odegaard suggests a midfield that can do all three jobs: win it, circulate it, and then bite in the final third. The front three offers both width and directness: Saka on one side, Trossard on the other, and Gyokeres as the central reference point.
What does that imply for the match-up?
Everton’s likely strengths, if those names start, are in the physical centre and the ability to stay compact: Keane and Tarkowski dealing with aerial and box work, and Garner/Iroegbunam making the middle of the pitch awkward. But the weak spots — again, purely from the set-up — are the spaces either side of that double pivot and the defending of wide rotations, because Arsenal’s full-backs and wingers will happily take turns showing up in the same channel until something breaks.
Arsenal’s likely strength is the whole machine working as one: clean build-up through Raya, security with Saliba, and then midfielders who can pin Everton in place. The potential soft spot, as ever in a high-possession side, is what happens behind the ball if Everton can nick it and run — and Everton’s listed attacking band includes players who can carry, not just chase.
So you can already see the tension. Everton will want this to feel like a proper home night: noisy, direct when it makes sense, and emotionally spiky. Arsenal will want it to feel like a training drill with an audience.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first question is tempo. Everton, with a double pivot and a back four packed with experience, have the tools to keep the game in front of them. If they can stay connected — centre-backs tight to midfield, midfield tight to the three behind the striker — then Arsenal are forced to play in smaller spaces, and that’s when you get the slow, probing game that tests patience as much as technique.
But Arsenal don’t need chaos to hurt you. Their season profile suggests they can win games through control: they’ve scored 30 and conceded 10 in 16, and their average possession figure is listed at 56%. That’s not a team surviving on moments; that’s a team taking the match away from you in small, relentless pieces.
Expect Arsenal’s build-up to be calm. Raya is the named goalkeeper, and with Saliba and Timber in the back line, there’s every reason to think they’ll invite a press if it’s offered. Everton’s choice is whether to bite.
If Everton step up, the pressing cues are obvious: jump on the first pass into midfield, lock play to one side, and make Arsenal prove they can play through pressure rather than around it. The risk is equally obvious: if Arsenal’s midfield three can receive under pressure, turn, and connect quickly to Saka or Trossard, Everton’s full-backs get dragged into decisions they won’t enjoy.
If Everton don’t step up, then you’re looking at a low-to-mid block with Garner and Iroegbunam screening and the wide players tracking runners. That can work, but it demands almost perfect concentration in the half-spaces — the channels between full-back and centre-back where Arsenal’s movement tends to create the ugliest questions. Who picks up Odegaard when he floats into that pocket? Who tracks a full-back if they underlap? Who stops Saka receiving to feet and turning, rather than being forced down the line?
The other big piece is Arsenal’s shot volume. Across the season, Arsenal are listed at 14.56 shots per match with 5.13 on target per match. Everton are listed at 10.63 shots per match with 3.00 on target per match. That gap doesn’t guarantee anything on a given night, but it tells you what kind of game each team tends to live in: Arsenal creating more, Everton creating less and needing to be sharper with what they do create.
That leads to the most likely flow: Arsenal have longer spells with the ball, Everton work in shorter attacks, and the match swings on whether Everton can turn those shorter attacks into the kind that matter — not just running into corners, but arriving in the box with support.
This is where Everton’s possible front four becomes important. With Grealish and Alcaraz listed, Everton can potentially keep the ball in the final third and force Arsenal to defend set shapes rather than simply dropping off and resetting. Barry as the central forward gives you a target for first passes forward, but the real threat is what happens after that first pass: can Everton get runners beyond, can they win second balls, can they pin Arsenal back for two minutes at a time?
And Arsenal’s defensive record gives them confidence to be patient. They’ve conceded 10 in 16, averaging 0.63 conceded per match, and they have 8 clean sheets listed for the season. That combination tends to create a particular mood in a match: Arsenal won’t panic if Everton have one decent spell; they can wait for the next mistake, the next turnover, the next moment where Everton’s spacing is half a yard off.
Set-piece themes matter too, even without getting into elaborate choreography. Everton’s back line includes Keane and Tarkowski, and the wider match profile suggests plenty of stoppages are possible: Everton are listed at 10.63 fouls committed per match and Arsenal at 11.13. A game with that many interruptions can become a game where territory and dead balls loom larger than open-play elegance.
There’s also a subtle time-shape hinted at in the half-by-half numbers. Arsenal’s second-half profile stands out: their second-half scoring average is listed at 1.19, compared to 0.69 in the first half. Everton’s numbers are flatter: 0.56 in the first half and 0.56 in the second. That doesn’t mean Arsenal “start slow” by choice; it more suggests they keep building pressure until the opponent bends. For Everton, the challenge is staying intact long enough that the crowd can believe right to the end.
Key zones?
If Arsenal can own central midfield with Rice and Zubimendi controlling the middle and Odegaard hovering just ahead of it, they’ll spend the night forcing Everton to defend facing their own goal. If Everton can keep the centre crowded and push Arsenal wide, then the decisive duels move to the flanks: Saka and Trossard against full-backs who have to choose whether to engage or contain, with Gyokeres waiting for the one cross or cut-back that arrives on time.
For Everton, the clearest route to stress Arsenal is transition. You don’t need to dominate the ball to hurt a team; you need to take the ball away and then use it like it’s hot. The possible presence of Grealish and Alcaraz suggests Everton can carry the ball through midfield rather than simply launching it. If Everton can win it with Garner or Iroegbunam and immediately find one of those carriers, Arsenal’s defensive structure is tested in the only way it really hates: being forced to turn and run.
The Numbers That Support the Story
The table sets the overall picture. Arsenal are first with 36 points from 16, Everton ninth with 24. Arsenal’s 30 goals scored and 10 conceded is a +20 swing; Everton’s 18 scored and 19 conceded leaves them at -1. In plain terms, Arsenal’s matches are usually decided by them creating more than they give away, while Everton’s are often decided by which side takes the few big moments.
Home and away layers make it more interesting. Everton’s points-per-game at home is listed at 1.75, and Arsenal’s points-per-game away is also listed at 1.75. That’s the shape of a contest where neither side walks in expecting the venue alone to define it — and with a new ground in the story, the emotional edge is harder to measure but still real.
Then you get into the chance-creation profile. Everton’s expected goals for per match is listed at 1.26, with expected goals against at 1.48. Arsenal’s xG for is 1.72 and xG against 0.86. That doesn’t just tell you Arsenal are better; it tells you how. Arsenal tend to create higher-quality chances and allow fewer and/or worse chances. Everton’s profile suggests they often need their defending to carry them through phases, and then need their attacking moments to be efficient.
The shot numbers sit neatly alongside that. Arsenal at 14.56 shots per match with 5.13 on target implies they keep asking questions. Everton at 10.63 with 3.00 on target implies they’ll likely have fewer attempts to land punches, so the timing of those attempts matters.
Goal scoring and concession rates sharpen the knife. Arsenal score 1.88 per match and concede 0.63. Everton score 1.13 and concede 1.19. It doesn’t guarantee a script, but it supports the tactical idea that Arsenal can afford longer spells of pressure because they’re not typically punished heavily at the other end.
There’s also something in the clean-sheet and “both teams score” patterns, if you treat them as texture rather than prophecy. Everton have 6 clean sheets in 16, and their season BTTS rate is listed at 6/16. Arsenal’s clean sheets are 8 in 16, and their BTTS rate is listed at 44%. That combination supports the idea that this could become a game of tight margins: Arsenal are comfortable winning without making it wild, and Everton have plenty of matches where defensive control is central to the result.
Finally, there’s the personal edge inside the squad lists. Everton’s top scorers include Iliman Ndiaye (4) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (4), with Grealish (2) among those listed, while Arsenal’s top scorers include Saka (4), Gyokeres (4) and Trossard (4). That matters because it frames the likely finishing responsibilities: Arsenal have multiple players arriving in this match with a similar scoring output, while Everton’s goals are shared too — meaning neither side is portrayed here as reliant on a single name to carry everything.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first ten minutes will matter, not because it always decides matches, but because it decides feelings. Everton’s new-home atmosphere will want an early reason to roar, and Arsenal’s first job is to keep the game dull enough that the roar turns into a murmur. If Arsenal can string together a few long possessions and make Everton’s front players chase, you often see the home side’s early adrenaline burn off without reward.
Then comes the first big duel on the flanks. If Saka is isolated 1v1, Everton’s full-back has to choose between engaging tight — risking being rolled — or backing off — risking crosses or cut-backs. If Arsenal start to overload that side with a midfielder arriving to support, it becomes a three-versus-two problem, and that’s where the defending team starts to pick up bookings, concede territory, and lose the ability to counter. Everton’s discipline list shows Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Tim Iroegbunam on 5 cards each, with Garner on 4, which is a reminder that their midfield battle often has an edge to it.
Watch for the moments Everton can actually run. The match may not offer many of them, but when it does, it’s about the first pass. If Everton win the ball and can find Grealish or Alcaraz early, the whole shape of the attack changes: you’re not just clearing your lines, you’re asking Arsenal’s defenders to retreat, and you’re giving Barry a chance to pin a centre-back while support catches up.
For Arsenal, the key “moment” might not look like a moment at all. It might be five passes that end with Odegaard receiving between Everton’s midfield and defence, turning, and sliding it into a channel. Or a move that ends with Trossard arriving at the far post because Everton’s back line has been shifted half a yard too far towards the ball. Arsenal’s season numbers — the goals scored, the low concession rate, the shot profile — all support the idea of pressure that accumulates.
Set pieces could be the great leveller. Everton’s likely centre-backs and Arsenal’s defensive record make for an interesting clash: Everton have obvious aerial presence with Keane and Tarkowski, while Arsenal’s season profile suggests they deal with danger well enough to keep clean sheets often. One well-delivered ball, one blocked run, one second ball dropping kindly — that’s where a match like this can turn.
And then there’s the late-game tilt. Arsenal’s second-half scoring average of 1.19 compared to 0.69 in the first half suggests they often finish stronger. Everton’s own half-by-half scoring is more even at 0.56 in both halves. If the match is level going into the final half-hour, Everton will need to manage the emotional push — the desire to surge forward at home — without opening the doors for Arsenal’s midfield to play straight through them.
What could go wrong with this read? Football is a nuisance like that. A single early goal can flip everything: Arsenal can become even more controlling, or Everton can become braver and turn the night into something messy and unpredictable. A red-card moment, a set-piece scramble, or an individual error in build-up can override all the sensible talk about structures and zones. Even a game that “should” be about control can turn into a series of transitions if the ball keeps changing hands in awkward areas. Fine margins, big consequences — especially under lights.
Best Bet for Everton vs Arsenal
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Arsenal to Win
The statistical profile of this match-up heavily favours an away victory, driven by Arsenal’s overwhelming superiority in controlling match outcomes through defensive efficiency and chance creation. While the narrative of a new stadium and a Saturday night atmosphere suggests a difficult emotional test, the underlying numbers paint a picture of a “machine working as one” that is equipped to dampen the occasion.
The most persuasive argument for an Arsenal win is the chasm in defensive performance. Arsenal are conceding an average of just 0.63 goals per match, a figure supported by an impressive expected goals against (xG Against) record of 0.86. Having kept eight clean sheets in 16 matches (50%), Arsenal possess the defensive platform required to nullify an Everton attack that averages only 1.13 goals per game. The data explicitly states that Arsenal’s matches are usually decided by them creating more than they give away, whereas Everton rely on taking “few big moments.”
Offensively, the disparity in shot volume dictates the likely flow of the game. Arsenal generate 14.56 shots per match (5.13 on target) compared to Everton’s 10.63 (3.00 on target). This volume, combined with an expected goals for (xG For) of 1.72, suggests Arsenal will consistently create higher-quality chances. The tactical analysis highlights that Arsenal “win games through control,” using a midfield trio of Rice, Zubimendi, and Odegaard to pin opponents back.
Furthermore, Arsenal’s ability to grind down opponents is evident in their half-by-half scoring rates. Their scoring average jumps from 0.69 in the first half to 1.19 in the second. This indicates that even if Everton’s “physical centre” of Keane and Tarkowski resists early on, Arsenal’s relentless pressure tends to break resistance late in games.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is Everton’s home form, which is statistically stronger than their league position suggests. With a home points-per-game average of 1.75—identical to Arsenal’s away record—Everton are far from pushovers on their own turf. Additionally, the presence of ball-carriers like Jack Grealish and Charly Alcaraz in Everton’s transition unit creates a specific threat: if they can bypass Arsenal’s press and attack the space behind the high line, the game could become chaotic rather than controlled.
Correct score lean
Arsenal 2-0
This scoreline perfectly aligns with the statistical trends of both sides. Arsenal score 1.88 goals per match and concede 0.63, pointing directly toward a multi-goal win accompanied by a clean sheet. Everton’s concession rate of 1.19 goals per match, combined with an expected goals against (xG Against) of 1.48, suggests they struggle to keep high-quality attacks at bay for 90 minutes. Given Arsenal’s tendency to score more heavily in the second half (1.19 average), a controlled performance where they score, manage the game, and add a second late on is the most data-backed outcome.
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